中国FTA战略及经济增长效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 00:03

本文选题：经济增长效应　切入点：引力模型　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：进入20世纪90年代,区域经济一体化快速发展起来,尤其在以多哈谈判为代表的多边贸易谈判陷入僵局后,更为灵活的FTA成为各国的优先选择,纷纷通过建立本国的FTA网络为对外贸易创造更加优惠、稳固的环境。中国也适应这一国际趋势,在加入WTO后着力推行FTA的建设。虽然起步略晚于日本、韩国等较为发达的国家,但中国的自贸区建设发展迅速,迄今已签署并实施了14个自贸协定,成员国遍及各大洲,可谓硕果累累。在梳理中国FTA建设的发展进程时,本文将其分为了合作机制研究阶段、自贸区建设初期及全面建设阶段,并根据中国在各阶段的主要举措及实践成果总结出各时期的特点。在合作机制研究阶段,中国的主要目的是加强两国间的政治经济互信并通过积极参与区域性经贸会议积累谈判经验;在自贸区建设初期,中国主要以发展中国家为自贸协定签署对象,分阶段分领域提高贸易自由化水平并建成了许多具有里程碑式意义的自贸区;在全面建设阶段,中国已经有足够的自贸区建设经验及较高的开放水平,因此签署的自贸协定多为"一揽子协定"并根据两国的贸易往来制定个性化协定,显示出更为完善的FTA发展战略。同时,通过对中国自贸区的建设过程进行分析,能够更加清晰地理解中国建设立足周边、契合"一带一路"、范围更广的高标准FTA网络的自贸区战略的内涵。尽管战略正式提出时间较短,但通过对中国已建成及仍处于建设中的自贸区的分析发现,此前的自贸区建设同样具有相同的签约国范围广、自由化水平不断提升、契合"一带一路"战略等特点,与2015年提出的战略内涵一致。本文借助引力模型及2002年至2015年中国FTA的相关数据,对FTA战略的经济效应进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,中国FTA的建设对于双边贸易额的影响是正向的,即在贸易创造效应及贸易转移效应共同存在的前提下,中国迄今建设的FTA整体上发挥了经济增长效应,肯定了中国自贸区战略的积极意义。但是,中国自贸区建设的经济增长效应尽管略高于日本,但仍是有限的。同时,通过对四个建立较早的FTA的经济效应进行实证分析发现,单个FTA的经济增长效应不显著,说明中国自贸区的效应仍有进一步提升的空间。最后,本文结合中国自贸区建设的特点、经济增长效应的实证结果及与日韩自贸区战略的比较,提出了推进中国FTA战略的建议。中国应在延续现有的FTA战略的基础上适当提速,全力构建FTA;推动自贸区的进一步升级谈判,提高与自贸区成员国间的全方位、多领域开放水平;借鉴日韩自贸区战略的优点,完善自贸区相关机制,加强自贸区领域人才的培养,打造优质团队,提高地方政府及企业的参与度,让企业在自贸区的实施中获得更多实际收益。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of regional economic integration in the 1990s, especially after the multilateral trade negotiations, represented by the Doha negotiations, have reached an impasse, a more flexible FTA has become a priority choice for all countries. One after another, China has created a more favorable and stable environment for foreign trade through the establishment of its own FTA network. China has also adapted to this international trend and has made great efforts to promote the construction of FTA after its entry into WTO. Although it started slightly later than Japan, South Korea and other more developed countries, However, the construction of China's free trade zone has developed rapidly. So far, 14 free trade agreements have been signed and implemented, and the member countries are all over every continent, which is fruitful. In combing the development process of China's FTA construction, this paper divides it into the research stage of cooperation mechanism. At the beginning of the construction of the Free Trade Zone and the overall construction stage, and according to China's main measures and practical results in each stage, summed up the characteristics of each period. In the research stage of cooperation mechanism, The main purpose of China is to strengthen political and economic mutual trust between the two countries and to accumulate experience in negotiations through active participation in regional economic and trade meetings. In the early stages of the construction of the FTA, China mainly took developing countries as the object of signing the FTA. The level of trade liberalization has been raised in stages and areas, and many milestone free trade zones have been built. In the comprehensive construction phase, China already has sufficient experience in building free trade zones and a high level of opening up. Therefore, most of the free trade agreements signed are "package agreements" and individualized agreements are drawn up according to the trade exchanges between the two countries, which shows a more perfect FTA development strategy. At the same time, through the analysis of the construction process of China's free trade zone, To be able to understand more clearly the implications of China's free-trade zone strategy for building a perimeter based on "Belt and Road", a wider range of high-standard FTA networks, although the strategy has been formally proposed for a relatively short time. However, through the analysis of the free trade zones that China has built and is still under construction, it is found that the previous construction of the free trade zones also had the same characteristics as the wide range of signatory countries, the constant upgrading of the level of liberalization, and the agreement with the "Belt and Road" strategy. With the help of gravity model and relevant data of China's FTA from 2002 to 2015, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the economic effects of FTA strategy. The empirical results show that, The effect of China's FTA construction on bilateral trade volume is positive, that is, under the premise of the existence of trade creation effect and trade transfer effect, the FTA constructed by China so far has played an overall role in economic growth. The positive significance of China's free trade zone strategy is affirmed. However, the economic growth effect of China's free trade zone construction is still limited, although it is slightly higher than that of Japan. At the same time, through the empirical analysis of the economic effects of the four earlier FTA, it is found that, The economic growth effect of a single FTA is not significant, indicating that there is still room for further improvement in the effect of China's free trade zone. Finally, this paper combines the characteristics of the construction of China's free trade zone, the empirical results of the economic growth effect and the comparison with the strategy of Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone. This paper puts forward some suggestions for promoting China's FTA strategy. China should speed up the development of the FTA strategy on the basis of continuing the existing FTA strategy, promote the negotiation of further upgrading of the FTAs, and improve the all-around and multi-field opening level with the FTA-member countries. Draw lessons from the advantages of the strategy of Japan and Korea Free Trade Zone, perfect the relevant mechanism of Free Trade Zone, strengthen the cultivation of talents in the field of Free Trade Zone, build high-quality teams, improve the participation of local governments and enterprises, and make enterprises gain more actual benefits in the implementation of the Free Trade Zone.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752

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