长三角区域间投入产出表编制及三大效应

发布时间：2018-03-27 06:08

本文选题：长三角　切入点：区域经济　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文首先借助非调查性的方法编制了包含2012年四个区域,分别是上海、江苏、浙江和国内其他地区部门的区域间投入产出表。区域间商品贸易流量根据引力模型进行估算,主要利用的数据是《2013中国交通年鉴》,投入产出表主要数据来源是全国以及各个区域2012年42部门的投入产出表。其中根据多区域投入产出模型即MRIO模型,编制了长三角42部门的区域间投入产出表。另外在测算方法上对Miller-Round模型进行拓展,建立三区域模型,测算长三角区域间经济增长的乘数效应、溢出效应、反馈效应。其中编制投入产出表还涉及区域间列系数模型、RSA调整法、行系数模型三个模型结合,对区域间流动贸易流量进行调整。本文采用多区域投入产出结构分解技术,把影响一个地区经济关联的三个因素分为区域内乘数效应、溢出效应和反馈效应三个部分。最后运用三区域模型对建立的投入产出表进行分析,测算出长三角三地总体以及分产业部门的区域内乘数效应、区域间溢出效应、区域间反馈效应,以此对三地整体的经济互动关系以及产业层次上的经济关联情况进行分析。研究发现,从区域间溢出效应来看,在各区域对其他区域的溢出效应的合计值中,浙江对上海的溢出效应最大,江苏对浙江的溢出效应合计值最小。这说明浙江对上海地区的带动作用最强,江苏对浙江的带动作用最弱。此外,本文还从不同产业效应值出发研究长三角产业间的关联特性,为从实际出发推动长三角产业协同发展提出决策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the input-output tables of four regions in 2012, namely Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions in China, are compiled with the help of non-survey methods. The interregional merchandise trade flows are estimated according to the gravity model. The main data used are < 2013 China Traffic Yearbook, the input-output table is the input-output table of 42 departments in the whole country and every region in 2012, according to the multi-region input-output model (MRIO model), The inter-regional input-output table of 42 departments in the Yangtze River Delta is compiled. In addition, the Miller-Round model is extended to establish three regional models to measure the multiplier effect and spillover effect of inter-regional economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta. Feedback effect. The compilation of input-output table also involves RSA adjustment method of interregional column coefficient model, three models of row coefficient model to adjust the flow of inter-regional trade. In this paper, multi-region input-output structure decomposition technique is used. Three factors affecting the regional economic relationship are divided into three parts: intraregional multiplier effect, spillover effect and feedback effect. Finally, the input-output table is analyzed by using the three-region model. The intra-regional multiplier effect, inter-regional spillover effect and inter-regional feedback effect of the three regions in the Yangtze River Delta as well as the sub-industrial sectors are calculated. From the point of view of the inter-regional spillover effect, in the aggregate value of each region's spillover effect to other regions, the paper analyzes the economic interaction between the three regions as well as the economic correlation at the industrial level. Zhejiang has the largest spillover effect on Shanghai, and Jiangsu has the smallest total spillover effect on Zhejiang. This shows that Zhejiang has the strongest driving effect on Shanghai, and Jiangsu has the weakest driving effect on Zhejiang. This paper also studies the correlation characteristics of industries in the Yangtze River Delta from different industrial effect values, and puts forward some decision suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of industries in the Yangtze River Delta from the practical point of view.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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