基于节能潜力的区域能源规划模型研究及应用

发布时间：2018-04-01 03:14

本文选题：节能潜力　切入点：能源规划　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源资源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础，是经济社会可持续发展的重要支柱。截止2012年，我国能源消费总量达到36.2亿吨标准煤，能源消费量的快速增长，不仅使得供需矛盾日益加剧，还使得生态环境压力日益增大。面对严峻的能源与环境形势，能源规划显得尤为重要，它是指导能源发展的重要纲领性文件，对引导能源发展和制定节能措施具有十分重要的意义。本文从节能潜力的角度出发，探索建立了基于节能潜力的区域能源规划模型，并以北京市2015年的能源规划为例介绍了该模型的具体应用。该规划模型旨在保持区域经济社会发展所需能源供应的前提下，最大限度的节约能源资源。在本文的研究的中，首先分别从产业结构、要素结构和能源结构三个方面对区域的结构节能潜力进行分析，并提出相应的节能潜力测算方法。然后通过对区域能源需求和供应能力的预测，以及结构节能潜力的测算，，运用能源系统分析方法将区域划分为经济、社会、能源、环境与政策调整五个子系统，并通过从整体上分析各子系统之间的联系建立区域能源规划模型。最后以北京市2015年的能源规划为例，对该模型的具体应用进行了介绍。北京市的能源规划结果显示，通过产业结构、要素结构和能源结构的优化调整，可为北京市节约能源377.13亿千瓦时当量电，占当年能源消费总量的9.83%。
[Abstract]:Energy resources are the important material foundation for the survival and development of human society and the important pillar of sustainable economic and social development. By 2012, the total energy consumption in China has reached 3.62 billion tons of standard coal, and the energy consumption has increased rapidly. It not only intensifies the contradiction between supply and demand, but also increases the pressure of ecological environment. In the face of severe energy and environmental situation, energy planning is particularly important, and it is an important programmatic document to guide energy development. It is of great significance to guide energy development and formulate energy saving measures. In this paper, a regional energy planning model based on energy conservation potential is established from the perspective of energy conservation potential. Taking the energy planning of Beijing in 2015 as an example, the concrete application of the model is introduced. The planning model aims to save energy resources to the maximum extent on the premise of maintaining the energy supply for regional economic and social development. Firstly, the paper analyzes the energy saving potential of regional structure from three aspects: industrial structure, element structure and energy structure, and puts forward the corresponding calculation method of energy saving potential, and then forecasts the regional energy demand and supply capacity. And the calculation of the potential of structural energy conservation, the use of energy system analysis method to divide the region into economic, social, energy, environment and policy adjustment five subsystems, Finally, taking the energy planning of Beijing in 2015 as an example, the application of the model is introduced. The results of energy planning in Beijing show that, Through the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, element structure and energy structure, energy can be saved by 37.713 billion kilowatt-hour equivalent electricity in Beijing, accounting for 9.83 percent of the total energy consumption in that year.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TK018

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