人民币国际化制约因素及推进措施

发布时间：2018-04-05 06:05

本文选题：人民币国际化　切入点：制约因素　出处：《东北师范大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：通过研究美元、日元和马克国际化历程,货币国际化是经济自然发展和政府推动共同作用的渐进发展过程,是一国融入金融全球化、经济发展进入高级阶段的重要标志之一。中国作为发展中国家,遵循经济发展规律,伴随着改革开放后经济与国际贸易的快速发展,人民币自然进入国际化进程,中国要谋求更好的发展,就必须进一步推进人民币的国际化进程。本文参照人民币国际化条件,通过分析人民币的国际化发展进程,研究人民币国际化的制约因素及推进措施。全文首先根据国际货币理论对人民币境外流通和使用现状进行综合研究,然后以货币国际化条件为标准对人民币国际化存在的制约因素进行研究,最后提出推进措施。全文分为六章：第一章,绪论。首先分析选题背景及意义。人民币国际化,是中国适应经济全球化大背景下,中国经济发展所必然,也是应对货币竞争必需。然后对本论题研究思路、方法、内容、主要观点、主要创新及有待进一步解决的问题进行慨括。论文研究方法：逻辑演绎和实证分析、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法。本文主要创新之处：根据中国经济发展增速放缓,人民币汇率由升值到贬值的最新发展趋势,得出防止因境外对我国投资减少、人民币资产流出与进口成本增高造成的国际储备减少及应对国际流动资本冲击的结论。第二章,人民币国际化相关概念、理论及研究文献综述。界定人民币国际化概念；综述货币国际化相关理论；综述人民币国际化条件,为论题研究提供理论基础和标准；综述人民币国际化发展状况、制约因素与推进措施文献,为论题研究提供实证研究状况基础和前期推进措施的理论基础。其中,货币国际化条件作为本章重点,其主要内容包括：有良好的国际关系和政治环境,人们对该种货币发行国政治状况有足够信心；拥有雄厚的经济实力；在世界贸易份额中占有较高比重；具有健全的金融制度、开放的货币政策、高度发达的金融市场体系和货币监管机制；该国货币具有稳定的币值及国家信用,可获得国际社会的普遍认同等。第三章,对目前国际货币竞争格局及存在的制约因素进行分析；介绍中国政治发展及面临的国际政治环境及存在的制约因素；以日元国际化进程作为典型进行借鉴性研究。从金融史看,不同历史时期总有一种货币趋于主导地位并影响国际货币体系,二战后,美元取代英镑成为世界中心货币,美元通过现行国际货币体系的“中心-外围”框架,通过利益获取和义务承担不对等方式,对世界其他国家进行利益侵夺；目前的主要国际货币竞争格局是：虽然日元、欧元对美元的国际地位构成一定挑战,但现行国际货币体系主要特征仍为美元霸权,而且他们会共同压制人民币的国际化。在政治方面,近年来,美国在亚太地区推行政治的“重返亚洲”战略；经济上,构建跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系(TPP协议),实行本土实业振兴计划,新的国际产业转移导致我国出口下降和出口产业产能过剩,阻止了中国全球经济影响力的提升。日元的国际化经验对人民币国际化具有最切近的借鉴价值。第四章,人民币国际化的经济发展状况及存在的制约因素研究。分析我国经济规模(GDP)、国际贸易、国际投资、外汇储备占比等综合经济实力对人民币国际化条件的满足状况及存在的制约因素,提出人民币国际化进程中存在的具体应解决的问题和实证依据。中国经济实力虽有很大增长,但与发达国家经济水平还有很大差距。在经济方面：由于我国劳动密集型出口导向型经济发展模式造成的低价商品供给能力,使得我国产业结构处于较低水平；同时,中国经济拉低了全球价格水平,对外国企业生产、出口、就业造成了世界性冲击,因此国外学者认为,中国正在输出全球性“通货紧缩”,并提出了“中国威胁论”；国外利用中国“世界工厂”带来的“巨大”、“快速”、“持续膨胀”的能源、原材料及半成品需求,使得中国经济陷入“卖什么什么便宜,买什么什么就贵”的困局,造成了我国的输入性通胀压力；由于贸易和外汇储备顺差过大,在外部经济、贸易、政治等压力下,人民币汇率水平持续升值,造成出口减缓及占比下降,进而造成出口产业压力加大,国内大批低附加值出口性企业减产甚至破产,外资甚至国内资金开始流出,我国产业结构调整和升级压力不断加大；国际资本流出,导致我国外汇储备降低,进而降低了我国应对国际金融冲击的能力。第五章,人民币国际化金融发展状况及制约因素。对中国各项金融指标的人民币国际化条件满足状况及存在的制约因素进行分析,为推进人民币国际化进程提供具体应解决的问题和经验依据。在人民币自由流通方面,人民币已在在香港和亚洲周边国家流通使用、人民币国际化已进入初级阶段；在中国金融开放方面,人民币已实现经常项目可兑换,资本项目管制逐步放开,人民币资本项目可兑换计划在近期实现；在中国金融市场方面,央行在港澳提供了人民币清算安排,货币互换中引入了人民币,允许境内机构赴香港市场发行人民币债券,对非居民境内持有人民币存款不设限制,推行人民币国际贸易计价试点,离岸人民币业务达到新阶段；在人民币国际化深度方面,人民币境外使用与流通已从目前主要为消费和贸易服务为主逐步过渡至为投资服务为主,个别国家己将人民币作为储备货币；在人民币国际化制度方面,利率市场化仅剩存款利率市场化最后一步并计划在近期内完成；人民币汇率市场化形成机制日益完善,浮动范围不断放宽。中国金融实力虽有很大增长,但与发达国家水平还有很大差距,目前人民币国际化还存在很多制约因素：国际上以人民币结算、计价、贷款和官方储备等业务比例还很低；目前,人民币没有实现资本项目可兑换,还不是国际社会普遍接受的货币；虽然境外人民币存量已相当巨大,但目前人民币在世界金融市场上可投资的金融产品却非常有限,且我国能够用来规避汇率风险的金融衍生品市场尚不发达,热钱回流很容易造成我国消费品和资产价格上升,通货膨胀预期压力增大,为我国资本项目进一步开放带来压力。第六章,人民币国际化推进措施。人民币国际化是个涉及多种因素的系统工程,需要进行科学规划而提出稳健的推进措施。针对人民币国际化制约因素以及亚洲国家条件和欧盟国家间存在很大差异性,短期内不可能象欧元那样产生亚洲统一货币——亚元,因此,人民币国际化的现实选择是走日元国际化的强势主权货币路线。根据国际贸易计价结算、国际投资和国际储备在不同发展阶段其发挥作用的不同,针对人民币国际化现状和具体制约因素,提出人民币国际化具体推进措施：在应对国际货币竞争及国际政治压力方面,其主要措施主要是：推进SDR成为国际单一货币,与世界各国一道,改善国际货币体系及美元霸权局面；加入SDR,使人民币成为国际储备货币；推进亚洲区域货币合作,与亚洲各国一道,改善区域货币竞争力及美元霸权局面；推进人民币区域化,使其成为亚洲区域性核心货币；维持人民币币值的稳定性,增强人民币的竞争力,促使人民币最终成为全球性货币。在经济方面,以推进人民币国际投资为突破口,丰富人民币投资品种,拉动人民币国际计价结算；构建多层面国家产业推进机制,引导企业转变投资方向,实施以内需为主的可持续经济发展战略。通过产业扶植政策,协调弱势产业、公共服务行业、重点产业发展；实施西部大开发战略,调整和协调区域经济结构布局；取消经济的政府投资拉动政策,让市场经济发挥资源的优化配置作用；调动财政资金向技术含量高、效益好支柱产业进行投资,增强自主创新能力,推进产业升级,提高企业国际竟争力,保持经济持续发展；转变外贸增长方式,促进国内经济增长向节约型方向发展,提高中国经济增长质量；加大对外投资,优化外汇储备结构,促进国际贸易收支平衡。在金融业务方面,应以推行人民币作为国际贸易结算、计价货币为突破口,建立双边或多边国家银行间人民币发行、清算、汇划双向流通机制；在金融机构建设方面,以推进香港、上海人民币离岸中心建设为突破口,建立境外人民币的流通渠道；在金融市场发展方面,进一步加强金融机构改革,增加金融机构创新能力和经营能力,提高金融机构效率和效益,提高金融资产质量(总量与质量,存量与增量)；在监管方面,有效监控人民币跨境流通、清算、外汇管理、金融风险等环节,协调内外部经济矛盾,通过宏观调控,防范和化解人民币无序流通可能造成的金融风险。全文总结和展望：中国作为发展中大国,经济和贸易水平已经进入世界前列,在国际上享有大国政治地位和威望,后发优势还有很大发展空间。如果中国能顺利进行产业升级和政治体制改革,中国必定可以利用经济发展空间和大国地位带来的有利因素,通过承担更多世界义务而赢得国际社会的认可,进而推进人民币国际化,成为国际货币。
[Abstract]:Through the research on the dollar, yen and Mark in the process of internationalization, currency internationalization is a gradual development process of economic development and the government to promote the natural interaction, is a country into the financial globalization, one of the important signs of economic development in the advanced stage of the China. As a developing country, follow the laws of economic development, with the rapid development after the reform and opening up economic and international trade the renminbi, naturally into the process of internationalization, Chinese to seek a better development, we must further promote the internationalization of the RMB.
According to the condition of RMB internationalization, the internationalization process of analysis of RMB, restricting factors of the internationalization of RMB and promoting measures. Firstly, according to the international monetary theory to make a comprehensive research on the current situation of RMB circulation abroad and use, then conducts the research to the currency internationalization conditions for the constraints of standards exist for the internationalization of RMB, finally put forward the measures.
The full text is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter, introduction. Firstly, the background and significance of topics. The internationalization of the RMB, is Chinese adaptation under the background of economic globalization, China economic development is inevitable, but also to respond to monetary competition required. Then this thesis research ideas, methods, contents, main ideas, the main innovation and further solve the problem of the generous including. Research methods: logical deduction and empirical analysis method, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The main innovation of this paper: according to the Chinese economic slowdown, the RMB exchange rate appreciation to the new trend of devaluation, that prevent because of China's investment overseas RMB assets outflow and decrease cost of imports increased by reducing international to cope with the international flow of capital reserves and the impact of the conclusion.
The second chapter, the internationalization of RMB related concepts, literature review and theoretical research. Define the concept of internationalization of the RMB currency internationalization theory; review; review of RMB internationalization conditions, and provide the theoretical basis and standard for the research; review the development of RMB internationalization situation, restriction factors and development measures of literature, to provide empirical research status basis and basis to promote measures the subject of research. Among them, the currency internationalization conditions as the focus of this chapter, the main contents include: a good international relations and political environment, people have enough confidence in the currency of China's political situation; has strong economic strength; the higher proportion of the share of world trade; a sound financial system, open the monetary policy, the highly developed financial market system and monetary regulatory mechanism; the country's currency is stable The value of the currency and the national credit can be recognized by the international community.
The third chapter on the current international currency competition and constraints that exist in the analysis; introduce China political development and the international political environment and the existing constraints; in yen internationalization process as a typical reference research. From the financial history, different historical periods have a dominant position and the currency tends to affect the international monetary the system, after the Second World War, the dollar replaced the pound has become the center of the world currency, the dollar by the current international monetary system "core periphery" framework, the interests and obligations is not equal, the interests of other countries on the world at present; the main international currency competition is: Although the yen, the euro against the dollar's international status pose some challenges, but the main characteristics of the current international monetary system is the dollar hegemony, and they will share the pressure of RMB internationalization in the political. Treatment, in recent years, the implementation of the United States Politics in the Asia Pacific region "return to Asia" strategy; economy, construction of the trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP protocol), the implementation of local industrial revitalization plan, the new international industrial transfer to China's export decline and export industry overcapacity, prevent Chinese global economic leverage from the value of the yen's internationalization. Experience is the closest to the internationalization of the RMB.
The fourth chapter, study on the factors restricting the economic development situation of RMB internationalization and the existing analysis of China's economic scale (GDP), international trade, international investment, foreign exchange reserves accounted for the overall economic strength of other conditions of RMB internationalization meet the condition and the restricting factors, put forward the process of internationalization of the RMB in the presence of the problems to be solved and empirical basis. Chinese economic strength has greatly increased, but the economic level and the developed countries there is a big gap. In the aspect of economy due to the low price of commodity supply to China's labor-intensive export-oriented economic development model, the industrial structure of our country is relatively low; at the same time, China pulled down the global economy the price level, production, export of foreign enterprises, employment caused a worldwide impact, so foreign scholars believe that China is global output "deflation", and Put forward the "China threat"; use of foreign Chinese "world factory" brings "great", "fast", "continuous expansion of energy, raw materials and semi-finished products demand, making Chinese economy into a" sell what cheap, buy what would your dilemma, resulting in China's input inflation; as a result of trade and foreign exchange reserves in the trade surplus is too large, the external economy, political pressure, the RMB exchange rate continues to rise, resulting in a slowdown in exports and the proportion dropped, causing the export industry pressure increase, a large number of domestic exports of low value-added production enterprises or even bankruptcy, and even domestic foreign capital outflow began. China's industrial structure adjustment and upgrading pressure increasing; international capital outflow, resulting in the decrease of China's foreign exchange reserves, thus reducing the ability of China to cope with the international financial impact.
The fifth chapter, financial development status and restricting factors of RMB internationalization. Chinese the financial index of RMB internationalization conditions to meet the conditions and constraints that exist in the analysis, according to the specific problem and provide the experience should be solved in order to promote the process of internationalization of the RMB. In the free circulation of RMB, the RMB has been in use in Hongkong and neighboring countries in Asia the circulation of RMB internationalization has entered the initial stage; in the aspect of China financial openness, RMB has achieved convertibility and capital controls gradually liberalized capital account convertibility of RMB, plans to achieve in the near future; Chinese in financial markets, the central bank to provide RMB clearing arrangements in Hong Kong and Macao, introduced the RMB currency swap, allowing domestic institutions in Hongkong the issuance of RMB bonds market, for non residents to hold Renminbi deposits without restrictions, the implementation of RMB denominated international trade pilot, offshore RMB business has reached a new stage; the internationalization of RMB in depth, overseas use and circulation of RMB from the current services mainly for consumption and trade gradually transition is investment service, individual countries will have RMB as a reserve currency system; in terms of internationalization of the RMB, the interest rate market only the deposit interest rate market the last step is scheduled to be completed in the near future; the formation mechanism of the improvement of the RMB exchange rate market, the floating range continued to relax. China financial strength is a great growth, but there is a big gap with the developed countries the level of internationalization of the RMB, at present there are a lot of factors: the international settlement in RMB denominated loans, and official reserves and other services the proportion is very low; at present, did not achieve the RMB capital account convertibility, also is not an international agency Generally accepted currency; although the RMB stock is huge, but the renminbi may invest in the world financial market financial products is very limited, and China can be used to avoid the exchange rate risk of the financial derivatives market is not developed, the return of hot money is very easy to cause the price of China's consumer goods and assets increased, expected inflation pressure as China's capital increase, further opening pressure.
The sixth chapter, the measures to promote the internationalization of the RMB. RMB internationalization is a systematic project involving various factors, the need for scientific planning and put forward measures to promote the sound. There is a big difference in RMB internationalization constraints and Asian countries and among countries in the European Union, the short term is unlikely to produce a unified Asian Currency -- the euro as sub yuan, like so the realistic choice of RMB internationalization, the internationalization of the yen is strong line. According to the international sovereign currency denominated trade settlement, international investment and international reserves in different stages of development of the different role, for RMB internationalization status and specific factors, put forward specific measures to promote the internationalization of rmb:
In response to the international currency competition and international political pressure, the main measures are: to promote the SDR to become an international currency, together with the rest of the world, improve the international monetary system and the dollar hegemony situation; accession to the SDR, to make the yuan an international reserve currency; promote regional monetary cooperation in Asia, Asia and other countries, improve the regional currency the competitiveness and the dollar hegemony situation; to promote RMB regionalization, the Asian regional core currency; maintain the stability of the RMB, RMB RMB to enhance competitiveness, eventually become a global currency.
In economic terms, in order to promote the RMB international investment as a breakthrough, enrich RMB investment products, stimulating international RMB denominated settlement; to build a multi-level national industrial mechanism to promote and guide the enterprise to change the investment direction, within the implementation of sustainable economic development strategy mainly. Through the coordination of industry support policies, weak industry, public service industry, the development of key industries; the implementation of the western development strategy, adjustment and coordination of regional economic structure; cancel government investment to boost economic policy, optimize the allocation of resources to play a role for market economy; mobilize financial funds to the high technological content, good investment benefits of pillar industry, enhance the capability of independent innovation, promote industrial upgrading, improve the international competitiveness of enterprises, and maintain sustained economic development; change the growth mode of foreign trade, promote the domestic economic growth to improve the economical development, Chinese The quality of economic growth, the increase of foreign investment, the optimization of the structure of foreign exchange reserve and the balance of international trade and balance.
In the financial business, should be based on the implementation of the RMB as an international trade settlement currency as a breakthrough, the establishment of bilateral or multilateral national inter-bank RMB issuance, liquidation, transfer of two-way circulation mechanism; in the construction of financial institutions to promote Hongkong, Shanghai RMB offshore center construction as the breakthrough point, the establishment of overseas RMB circulation channel; development in the financial markets, to further strengthen the reform of financial institutions, financial institutions to increase innovation ability and management ability, improve the efficiency and benefit of financial institutions, improve the quality of financial assets (stock and incremental quantity and quality); in the aspect of supervision, effective supervision of cross-border circulation of RMB clearing, foreign exchange management, financial risk and other aspects of coordination of internal and external economy the contradiction, through macro-control, to prevent and resolve the disorder may be caused by the circulation of RMB financial risks.
Summary and Outlook: China as a developing country, the economic and trade level has entered the forefront of the world, enjoy the country political status and prestige in the international arena, the advantage has large development space. If China can successfully carry out industrial upgrading and reform of the political system, China must be favorable factors brought by the economic development space and great power status the won international recognition by the world to assume more obligations, and promote the internationalization of RMB to become an international currency.

【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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