邹城市水资源调查评价与变化情势研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 11:02

本文选题：邹城市 + 水资源评价　；参考：《山东农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水资源评价一般是针对某一特定区域,在水资源调查的基础上,研究特定区域内的降水、蒸发、径流诸要素的变化规律和转化关系,阐明地表水和地下水资源数量、质量及其时空分布特点。开展需水量调查和可供水量的计算,进行水资源供需分析,寻求水资源可持续利用最优方案,为区域经济、社会发展和国民经济各部门提供服务。水资源评价是水资源合理开发利用的前提,是水资源规划的依据,也是保护和管理水资源的基础。邹城市是全国综合实力百强(县)市、新兴能源工业基地,境内大企业众多,对水资源量需求较大。邹城市属淮河流域南四湖湖东区水系,全市多年平均水资源总量约为5.35亿m3,地域分布不均,人均年占有量462m3,仅为全国人均占有量的五分之一,属于水危机区。随着社会经济的快速发展,人民生活水平的不断提高,尤其是煤电化工企业得到较大发展,支撑产业发展的水资源日益短缺,供需关系紧张,地下水开采承担着较大压力,地表水环境日趋恶化。因此,对邹城市水资源状况进行评价,研究其水资源变化情势十分必要。邹城市地表水系列和地下水系列均为1956～2005年系列,不足以满足现阶段的水资源综合规划的要求。水资源系列值的确定受多种因素的影响,其中包括该地区降雨、蒸发、降雨入渗等因素,本文通过定量描述邹城市水资源系列与降雨系列的相关关系对邹城市水资源系列进行展延,结果表明,展延成果精确度较高。通过相关分析法,得到邹城市降水系列与同时期地表水系列、地下水系列有着较强的相关关系,得到相关公式,通过2005～2010年的降水系列利用相关公式,展延地表水系列和地下水系列到2010年。利用展延后的资料对邹城市水资源按流域分区和行政分区进行水资源评价,具体包括地表水资源评价、地下水资源评价、水资源总量评价、水资源可利用量评价等,通过邹城市水资源评价成果可知邹城市流域分区和行政分区的水资源分布和数量,对于科学规划利用水资源有重要意义。在水资源评价内容的基础上,对邹城市水资源演变情势进行了研究。因为水资源系列具有一定的随机性和波动性,针对已有的水资源系列本身的特性,本文通过滑动平均法,尽可能消除由其波动性引起的误差,对邹城市未来十年水资源量进行分析预测,预测成果较为可靠为缺少水资源实测资料的水资源评价及水资源量预测提供了一条值得探索的途径。滑动平均法是用一组近期的实际数据值来预测未来数据值的一种常用方法。它的基本思想是：根据时间序列资料、逐项推移,依次计算包含一定项数的序时平均值,以反映长期趋势的方法。因此,当时间序列的数值由于受周期变动和随机波动的影响,起伏较大,不易显示出事件的发展趋势时,使用移动平均法可以消除这些因素的影响,显示出事件的发展方向与趋势(即趋势线),然后依趋势线分析预测序列的长期趋势。通过一次滑动平均、二次滑动平均对邹城市未来十年水资源变化情况进行预测,得到变化趋势及未来十年水资源量的预测值。
[Abstract]:Water resources assessment is generally in a particular area, based on water resources survey, the study of evaporation within a specific area of precipitation, runoff, elements of the variation and transformation relations, clarify the quantity of surface water and groundwater resources, quality and spatial distribution characteristics. To carry out the requirement investigation and calculation of water supply for analysis of the supply and demand of water resources, the optimal scheme for sustainable utilization of water resources, to provide services for regional economic, social development and national economic departments. Water resources assessment is the precondition of reasonable development and utilization of water resources, water resources is the basis for planning, which is the basis of the protection and management of water resources.
Zoucheng city is a national comprehensive strength hundred city (county), the new energy industry base, many domestic large enterprises, large demand for water resources. Zoucheng municipal Huaihe River East River Lake Nansi Lake, the city's average annual total water resources of about 535 million m3, the uneven geographical distribution, the per capita possession of 462m3, only the national per capita the possession of 1/5, belonging to the water crisis area. With the rapid development of social economy, the improvement of people's living standards, especially coal chemical enterprises have achieved great development, the growing shortage of water resources to support the development of the industry, the tension between supply and demand, bear the greater pressure of groundwater, surface water environment deterioration. Therefore, to evaluate the the situation of water resources in Zoucheng City, to study the change of water resources situation is very necessary.
Zoucheng city surface water and groundwater series series are for the 1956~2005 year series, not enough to meet the present stage of integrated water resources planning requirements. Determine the water resources value of the series is influenced by many factors, including the rainfall, evaporation, rainfall infiltration and other factors, this paper through the quantitative description of the relationship of water resources in Zoucheng city a series of series of series of rainfall and water resources of Zoucheng city extension, the results show that the extended results of high precision. Through correlation analysis, get the surface water in Zoucheng city with the same period of precipitation, groundwater series has a strong correlation, get the correlation formula by precipitation series 2005~2010 years using formula. An extension of the surface water and groundwater series until 2010. By using the delayed data of water resources in Zoucheng city according to the basin and administrative zoning evaluation of water resources, including Evaluation of surface water resources, groundwater resources evaluation, evaluation of the total water resources, available water resources evaluation, the distribution of water resources and the quantity of water resources evaluation results in Zoucheng city zoning and administrative division of Zoucheng City, has important significance for scientific planning and utilization of water resources.
On the basis of water resources evaluation on the content of water resources in Zoucheng city. The situation for the water resources series is random and the volatility of the characteristics of water resources in the series itself, through the sliding average method, as far as possible to eliminate the error caused by the fluctuation, to analyze and forecast Zoucheng City, the next ten years, the amount of water resources, the prediction results are more reliable for the prediction and evaluation of water resources lack of water resources and water resources data provides a way worthy of exploration.
The moving average method is a common method to predict future data values with a real data set to the recent value. Its basic idea is: according to the time series data, one goes on, followed by calculating the number of sequence contains a mean value method to reflect the long-term trend. Therefore, when the numerical time series due to the impact of and by periodic change and random wave fluctuation, is not easy to show the trend of events, using moving average method can eliminate the influence of these factors, showing the development direction and trend of the event (i.e. the trend line), and then according to the analysis of the long-term trend line trend forecast series. Through a moving average of two. A moving average of the change of water resources in Zoucheng city in the future ten years is forecasted, the trend and future ten years the amount of water resources value.

【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

【参考文献】