中间品贸易视角下中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 15:53

本文选题：中间品贸易 + 中国-东盟自由贸易区　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自20世纪80年代以来,世界经济的联系越来越紧密,正朝着全球化方向发展。在此背景下,中国为与东盟国家建立了中国首个自由贸易区——中国-东盟自由贸易区。中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立为中国与东盟的中间品贸易打通了道路,中国与东盟的中间品贸易因此得到长足的发展。2014年,中国与东盟的中间品贸易达到了 2700.02亿美元,占总贸易的比重近70%。中间品贸易已然成为中国-东盟自由贸易区最重要的贸易组成。本文研究中国-东盟自由贸易区建立对双方中间品贸易的影响因此具有十分重要的现实意义。本文首先对探讨了中国-东盟自由贸易区中间品贸易的的内在理论机制。认为中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立给中间品贸易带来了贸易创造效应和规模经济效应。本文还从理论的角度分析了中间品贸易如何受贸易成本和投资的影响。发现了贸易成本的下降首先带来中间品贸易的上升,而投资对中间品贸易的影响与双方中间品贸易量相关。当双方中间品贸易量较少时,中间品贸易和投资存在互补关系,双方贸易量较多时,中间品贸易和投资存在替代关系。然后,本文对中国与东盟中间品贸易在1998-2014年的发展情况进行分析,发现中国与东盟的中间品贸易是相辅相成的,是优势互补的,是国际生产链之间的融合,极大地促进了中国与东盟中间品贸易的发展,东盟因此成为我国第一大中间品贸易伙伴。最后,本文选取了中间品贸易进出口作为被解释变量,中间品平均关税水平作为解释变量,FDI、经济规模、距离和经济危机作为控制变量,并选取了 2003-2014年的数据构建了面板数据。本文应用上述的面板数据进行实证,证明中国与东盟的中间品贸易的增长是因为中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立所导致的贸易成本的降低直接相关。并通过比较实证得出了中间品贸易比最终品贸易更易受到贸易成本的影响。通过现状分析、理论分析和实证分析本文得出了以下的结论:(1)中国-东盟的中间品贸易与贸易成本是负相关;(2)中国-东盟的中间品贸易比最终品贸易更易受贸易成本的影响;(3)中国-东盟之间的中间品贸易和投资正处于互补阶段。根据所得的结论,本文提出了相关的政策建议:(1)加强中国与东盟中间品贸易的合作。在降低贸易成本和投资成本的前提下,加强产品内贸易的合作,实现优势互补、互相合作、互惠互利的目标。(2)中国应积极地作为引导者参与区域经济一体化。在作为引导者的过程中,应充分的利用中国-东盟自由贸易合作所提供的经验。首先在容易谈判的中间品贸易成本进行谈判,再由中间品惠及到其他领域的谈判中,最终推进区域经济合作的进程。
[Abstract]:Since the 1980 s, the world economy has become more and more closely linked and is developing towards globalization.In this context, China established the first Free Trade area with ASEAN countries-China-ASEAN Free Trade area.The establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area has opened the way for the trade in intermediates between China and ASEAN, which has made great progress. In 2014, the trade in intermediate goods between China and ASEAN reached 270.002 billion US dollars.It accounts for nearly 70% of total trade.Intermediate trade has become the most important trade component of China-ASEAN Free Trade area.Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the influence of the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade area on the trade of intermediate goods between China and ASEAN.This paper first discusses the internal theoretical mechanism of China-ASEAN Free Trade area intermediate trade.It is believed that the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade area has brought trade creation effect and scale economy effect to intermediate trade.This paper also analyzes how the trade of intermediate goods is influenced by trade cost and investment from a theoretical point of view.It is found that the decrease of trade cost first leads to the increase of intermediate goods trade, and the influence of investment on intermediate goods trade is related to the volume of intermediate goods trade between the two sides.When the volume of trade between the two sides is small, there is a complementary relationship between the trade and investment of intermediate goods, and when the volume of trade between the two sides is large, there is a substitution relationship between the trade and investment of intermediate goods.Then, this paper analyzes the development of the intermediate trade between China and ASEAN from 1998 to 2014, and finds that the intermediate trade between China and ASEAN is complementary, complementary and the fusion of international production chain.It has greatly promoted the development of intermediate goods trade between China and ASEAN, so ASEAN has become the largest trade partner between China and ASEAN.Finally, this paper selects the import and export of intermediate goods as the explanatory variable, the average tariff level of intermediate goods as the explanatory variable FDI, the economic scale, distance and economic crisis as control variables, and constructs panel data from 2003-2014.Based on the above panel data, this paper proves that the growth of intermediate trade between China and ASEAN is directly related to the reduction of trade cost caused by the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade area.Through comparison, it is concluded that the intermediate trade is more susceptible to the impact of trade cost than the final trade.Through the analysis of the current situation,Theoretical analysis and empirical analysis this paper draws the following conclusions: 1) China-ASEAN intermediate trade is negatively correlated with trade costs) China-ASEAN intermediate trade is more susceptible to the impact of trade costs than final goods trade.Trade and investment in intermediate goods between the two countries-ASEAN are in the complementary stage.According to the conclusion, this paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestion: 1) to strengthen the cooperation between China and ASEAN intermediate goods trade.On the premise of reducing the cost of trade and investment, we should strengthen the cooperation of intra-product trade, realize the goals of complementary advantages, mutual cooperation and mutual benefit) China should take an active part in regional economic integration as a guide.In the process of being a guide, we should make full use of the experience provided by China-ASEAN Free Trade Cooperation.First, the trade cost of intermediate goods which is easy to negotiate is negotiated, and then the intermediate goods benefit to other areas of negotiation, and finally the process of regional economic cooperation is promoted.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F742

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