国际贸易收支视角下的外部传导对我国通货膨胀区域差异影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-18 03:10

本文选题：通货膨胀区域差异 + 贸易收支传导　；参考：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：经典经济学理论阐明了开放条件下的外部冲击是影响一国通货膨胀的重要因素之一，，已有的研究成果证明了外部市场所引致的一国国际收支的改变，以及汇率的外生变动，都将对该国的内部经济均衡产生影响。2008年以来，关于中国新一轮通货膨胀的引致原因，其中的输入性因素已引起广泛的讨论。外部冲击的影响不仅表现在宏观层面，更会深入到包括区域经济增长、产业结构优化和微观企业竞争力等各个方面。鉴于此，本文选取我国区域差异的中观视角，探讨国际收支和汇率的改变，在假定其他因素不变的前提下，如何传导并影响我国通货膨胀的区域差异。论文首先对我国通货膨胀区域差异现状进行了定量描述，并定性分析了外部冲击和汇率变动通过贸易渠道、资本渠道对通货膨胀区域差异的作用机制，在此基础上选取我国31个省份2004-2011年的样本数据进行了实证检验，在控制了地方投资水平、区域生产总值、区域人口水平等影响因素，以及地理区位等时不变因素和时间趋势的影响之后，实证结果表明外部冲击是影响我国区域通货膨胀差异的一个不可忽视的重要影响因素。通过研究得到：（1）外部冲击是形成我国通货膨胀区域差异的重要原因之一；（2）从外贸收支角度看，各地区出口规模与区域通货膨胀显著负相关；（3）汇率上升（即人民币贬值）对经济开放度越高地区的通货膨胀影响程度越小，反之则越大；（4）随着汇率的增加，出口对通货膨胀的抑制效应在减小；（5）区域范围内的货币供应量依旧是决定区域物价水平的主要决定因素。基于上述研究结论，本文提出了有针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The classical economic theory clarifies that the external shock under the open condition is one of the important factors that affect the inflation of a country. The existing research results prove the change of a country's balance of payments caused by the external market, as well as the exogenous change of the exchange rate.Both will have an impact on the country's internal economic balance. Since 2008, there has been widespread discussion about the causes of China's new round of inflation.The impact of external shocks is not only on the macro level, but also on various aspects, including regional economic growth, industrial structure optimization and micro-enterprise competitiveness.In view of this, this paper selects the middle angle of view of regional differences in China, discusses the changes of balance of payments and exchange rate, and how to conduct and affect the regional differences of inflation in China on the assumption that other factors remain unchanged.Firstly, the paper gives a quantitative description of the regional differences of inflation in China, and qualitatively analyzes the mechanism of external shocks and exchange rate changes through trade channels and capital channels on regional differences in inflation.On this basis, the sample data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2011 are selected for empirical test, which control the influence factors such as local investment level, regional GDP, regional population level and so on.After the influence of geographical location isochronous invariant factor and time trend, the empirical results show that external shock is an important factor that can not be ignored to influence the regional inflation difference in China.From the perspective of foreign trade revenue and expenditure, we can find that external shocks are one of the important reasons for the regional differences in inflation in China.There is a significant negative correlation between regional export scale and regional inflation. (3) the rise of exchange rate (that is, RMB depreciation) has a smaller impact on inflation in areas with higher economic openness, and vice versa with the increase of exchange rate.The restraining effect of export on inflation is still the main determinant of regional price level.Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F752

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