东西部经济发展差距的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 20:04

本文选题：经济发展差距 + 泰尔熵指数　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国快速的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成绩。但是,区域间的发展差距乃至区域内的发展差距都开始逐渐扩大,区域经济发展不平衡所带来的各种问题也开始逐步显现,而这些问题正越来越影响着国家的稳定,民族的团结,区域经济发展的差距成为人们共同关注的焦点。近些年,政府认识到缩小区域间经济发展差距,统筹区域发展的重要性,实施了一系列措施,如在1999年提出西部大开发战略,在十六届三中全会《决定》中提出了统筹区域发展、形成促进区域经济协调发展机制的目标和任务等。这些政策为西部的发展做出了重要贡献,但是否缓解了东西部发展差距还不得而知,如果缓解了东西部发展差距,那么东西部发展差距还有多大,如果差距还很大,那我们要采取什么用的措施才能尽快缩小东西部发展差距。要回答这些问题,就必须对东西部经济发展差距进行实证研究。一、本文的研究视角为了研究西部大开发政策和统筹区域发展政策等的实施,东西部经济发展差距的现实状况,本文将理论与实证相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合,以一个循序渐进的方式,先后用描述性统计和单一指标法、趋同分析法及因子分析法研究东西部经济发展差距的现状及变化趋势,以期有所发现。二、本文的主要内容第一章为绪论。简单介绍了本文的研究背景及意义,综述了国内外的研究现状,并介绍了本文的研究内容及方法及主要特色。第二章为描述性统计部分。本文用十年的统计数据,分别描述了东西部在经济水平、产业结构、教育水平、基础设施、城市化水平五个方面的现状。第三章为东西部地区经济发展差距的测算。在相应理论的基础上,我们分别使用变异系数法、基尼系数法及泰尔熵指数法对东西部发展差距进行测算,并将泰尔熵指数进行分解,同时测算出东、西部内部的经济发展差距。通过对比十年来的测算数据,得到东西部经济发展差距的变化情况。第四章为东西部经济发展趋同性研究。本章通过对东西部的s-趋同检验及整体绝对趋同检验以及东西部内部绝对趋同检验来进一步证实上一章所得出的结论,使我们得出的结论更加可靠。第五章为东西部经济发展综合指标分析。使用因子分析的方法分别对2003年和2012年东西部22个省进行因子分析,通过对比两年结果,研究东西部经济发展差距的变化趋势,寻找对经济发展影响较大的指标并用排名展现东西部发展水平的现实状况。第六章为政策建议。针对当前东西部仍存在的巨大差距的现状,结合因子分析得出的结论,提出进一步缩小东西部经济发展差距的政策建议。三、本文的特色第一,本文将定性分析和定量分析相结合,并主要使用定量分析的方法,突破了以往单纯使用定性的方法进行对比分析,使得出的结论更加科学。第二,使用趋同的方法对单一指数法所得结论进行验证,提高研究结果的准确性。第三,用因子分析的方法,结合综合指标进行分析。这样的做法让本文在方法的选择上,突破以往只使用描述性统计和计量方法的瓶颈,在指标的选取上,结合综合指标进行分析,而不仅仅是单一指标。这样能够从多角度,更加全面的反映东西部经济发展的差距。第四,本文突破以往单纯对某一年的数据做因子分析的局限,通过对比两年的因子分析结果,研究东西部经济发展差距的变化,并寻找对总得分函数影响均较大的指标。四、本文的主要结论 1.东部在经济水平、产业结构、教育水平、基础设施、城市化水平五个方面的发展水平普遍高于西部,但西部的增长速度普遍高于东部。经济水平方面,10年间东西部地区经济总量差距有所拉大,但西部地区经济发展速度普遍要快于东部地区；产业结构方面,东部地区结构有了比较明显优化,但西部地区经济结构没有大的调整,农业占GDP比重仍然较大；教育方面,2003年西部地区教育投入只有东部地区一半水平,到了2012年西部地区教育投入已经占到了东部地区投入的80%,西部地区加大了教育投入,两者的教育投入差距在缩小；基础设施方面,两大区域的人均邮电业务量在2011和2012年都有了大幅降低,但从2003-2010年的数据来看,西部地区人均邮电业务量的年均增长率比东部地区高约13个百分点,两大区域基础设施有缩小趋势；城市化方面,无论是东部地区还是西部地区均处于加速城镇化时期,东西两大区域10年间的城镇化率差异减少了5个百分点。 2.变异系数与基尼系数测算东西部发展差距的数据显示：东西部发展差距在逐渐缩小。泰尔熵系数将东西部总的差距分解为东西部区域间差距和区域内差距后,其测算的结果显示的是：东西部区域间差距和东部区域内差距在逐渐缩小,西部区域内的差距没有缩小。 3.由σ-趋同和β-趋同分析得出东西部整体出现绝对趋同,东部内部出现绝对趋同,然而西部内部没有出现绝对趋同的结论,与第三章各指数证明的东西部区域间经济发展差距在缩小,东部区域内经济发展差距在缩小,西部区域内经济发展差距并没有缩小的结论类似。 4.在综合指标下,通过对比2003年和2012年因子分析结果发现,因子1的特征根从2003年的6.443减少到2012年的5.519,表明第一个公因子的方差有所减小,因此在因子1代表的指标下,各省份差距有一定程度的缩小。通过对比总得分函数看出,人均GDP、农村家庭人均收入、城镇单位在岗职工平均工资、人均邮电业务量、城镇化率、每万人拥有医疗人员、人均教育经费、每万人拥有专利数这八个指标对总得分的影响较大,并且第三产业比重、农村家庭人均收入与城镇单位在岗职工平均工资这三个指标对经济发展的影响增加显著。通过东西部22个省的排名,本文发现虽然东部有7个省份依旧占据前七名,山东保持第十名没有变,但是其余两个省份的排名均在下降,西部相对于东部排名有所上升,即在综合指标下,东西部经济发展差距也在缩小,与上两章的结论相同。但是,从排名整体来看,仍存在东部省份排名靠前,西部省份排名靠后的现象,东西部巨大的差距仍未消除。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic development has made remarkable achievements. However, the development gap between the development gap between regions and even within the region began to expand, the unbalanced development of regional economy brought about by the various problems also gradually began to appear, and these problems are increasingly affecting the stability of the country and the nation unity, regional economic development gap has become the focus of common concern.
In recent years, the government recognized the gap in economic development between regions, the importance of regional development, the implementation of a series of measures, such as the western development strategy in 1999, in the third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee decided to put forward < > regional development, promote the formation mechanism of the goals and tasks of the coordinated development of regional economy. Development made a significant contribution to these the policy for the western, but whether to ease the development gap between the East and the West also can make nothing of it to ease the development of, if the gap between the East and the west, then the development gap between the East and the West as well as much, if there is still a big gap, then we should take what measures as soon as possible in order to narrow the development gap between the East and the West. To answer these questions, we must conduct empirical research on the economic development gap between the East and the West.
First, the research perspective of this article
In order to study the implementation of the western development policy and regional development policies, the real situation of economic development gap between the East and the west, the combination of theoretical and empirical, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, in a gradual way, has used descriptive statistics and single index method, the convergence analysis of the present situation and trend of law and the factor analysis method of eastern economic development gap, to discover.
Two, the main content of this article
The first chapter is the introduction. It briefly introduces the background and significance of the research, summarizes the research status at home and abroad, and introduces the research contents, methods and main characteristics of this paper.
The second chapter is descriptive statistics. In this paper, ten years statistics data are used to describe the five aspects of economic and technological level, industrial structure, education level, infrastructure and urbanization level.
The third chapter is the calculation of economic development gap between eastern and western regions. Based on the corresponding theory, we use the variation coefficient method, to calculate the development gap between the East and the west of the Gini coefficient and Theil entropy index method and Tel index decomposition, and calculate the economic development gap between East and West. Through the calculation of internal data comparison of ten years, the change of economic development gap between the East and the West.
The fourth chapter is about the convergence of East and west economic development. This chapter further confirms the conclusion of the last chapter by making the s- convergence test and the absolute convergence test of East and West and the absolute convergence test between the East and the west, so that our conclusion is more reliable.
The fifth chapter is the analysis of comprehensive index of the development of the East. Using the factor analysis method were factor analysis for 22 provinces in 2003 and 2012. By comparing the two results, the change trend of the gap between eastern and western economic development, for economic development impact index and ranking show reality development level in the East and the West.
The sixth chapter is policy recommendations. In view of the great gap between the East and the west, combined with the conclusions drawn from factor analysis, we put forward policy recommendations to further narrow the economic development gap between the East and the West.
Three, the characteristics of this article
First, this paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, and mainly uses quantitative analysis method, breaking through the previous qualitative analysis method, making the conclusion more scientific.
Second, the method of convergence is used to verify the results of the single index method to improve the accuracy of the research results.
Third, using the method of factor analysis, combined the analysis of comprehensive index. This gives the method of choice, break through the bottleneck of past only using descriptive statistics and econometric methods, in the selection of indicators, combined the analysis of comprehensive index, which is not only a single index. This can from many angles, more comprehensive reflect the economic development gap between East and West.
Fourth, this paper breaks through the limitations of previous factor analysis only for one year's data. By comparing two years' factor analysis results, we study the change of economic development gap between East and West, and find indicators that have great impact on total score function.
Four, the main conclusions of this paper
1. in the eastern part of the economic level, industrial structure, level of education, infrastructure, the development level of the five aspects of city level is generally higher than the west, but the growth rate is generally higher than the eastern. The economic level, the gap between the total of 10 between the eastern and Western Regions widened, but the speed of economic development in western regions is generally faster than the eastern area; industrial structure, structure of the eastern region has been significantly optimized, but the western region economic structure without major adjustments, agriculture accounted for the proportion of GDP is still large; education, education in the western region in 2003 in the eastern region is only half the level in 2012, western education investment has accounted for 80% of investment in the eastern region, the western region to increase investment in education, the educational investment gap between the per capita; infrastructure, postal and telecommunication services in two regions in 2011 and 2012 are The greatly reduced, but from 2003-2010 years of data, with an average annual growth rate of per capita amount of Posts and telecommunications business in western region the rate of about 13 percentage points higher than the eastern region, two regional infrastructure has narrowed trend; city, whether in eastern or western regions are in the accelerating period of Urbanization, the urbanization rate differences between East and West. The two regions in 10 years reduced by 5 percentage points.
2. variation coefficient and Gini coefficient estimates the development gap between East and west of the data shows that the development gap between the East and the west is gradually narrowing. East total Theil entropy coefficient will be decomposed into gap between the East and west regions. The gap and regional gap, the calculation results show that the regional gap between the eastern and western regions in the gap the western region is gradually shrinking, the gap is not narrowing.
By 3. sigma convergence and beta convergence analysis of the overall appearance of absolute convergence, absolute convergence within the eastern and Western internal however does not appear absolute convergence conclusion, and third chapters of the regional economic development between the various index in narrowing the gap, the development gap between the eastern region economy is shrinking, the development gap between the western economy within the region and did not reduce the similar conclusion.
4. in the comprehensive index, by comparing the 2003 and 2012 results of factor analysis found that the characteristic root factor 1 decreased from 6.443 in 2003 to 5.519 in 2012, that the first common factor variance decreases, so the factor 1 indicators, the gap between provinces has a certain degree of reduction. By comparing the total score the function that the per capita GDP, per capita income of rural households, the average wage of workers in urban units per capita, postal and telecommunication services, urbanization rate, per million people per capita medical personnel, education funding, the number of patents per million people have the eight index effect on the total score of the larger, and the proportion of the third industry, the influence of three an index of the average wage of workers in rural family per capita income and urban units for economic development increased significantly. By 22, the East ranking, this paper found that although the eastern 7 provinces still occupy the top seven, mountain Keep the East tenth has not changed, but the remaining two provinces were ranked in decline, compared with the Eastern Western rank increased, namely in the comprehensive index, the economic development gap between the East and the West are narrow, the same as the conclusion of the two chapter. However, from the overall ranking, still in the eastern provinces ranking the western provinces ranked by the phenomenon, east the huge gap have not been eliminated.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】