中国货币政策区域非对称效应及其成因机制分析

发布时间：2018-05-05 09:00

  本文选题：货币政策 + 区域非对称效应　； 参考：《云南大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：“货币政策能做什么和不能做什么,货币政策是否有效”(弗里德曼1968),一直是宏观经济学家关注的焦点,货币政策对于区域经济的影响和作用更是金融理论研究的前沿。如何更好把握货币政策的调控力度,提高货币政策的有效性,不仅关乎政府和货币当局能否做到科学决策、精准调控更深刻影响到宏观经济稳定和区域经济协调发展等重要战略目标的实现。传统的宏观经济理论认为货币政策同其他宏观经济变量一样是一个总量总体的概念即货币政策当局制定和实施货币政策是一个总量管理的过程应更多关注整个宏观经济、金融环境的运行情况,无需考虑太具体的微观细节,这个基本结论成为实施统一货币政策的重要基础。然而近年来,人们普遍意识到同一货币区的不同经济体,在统一货币政策的冲击下,经济反应效应却有着明显差异。一方面,不同区域利用自身区位特色或者通过制度改革创新,将经济潜力转化为经济优势,产生区域发展差异；另一方面货币政策的传导过程是复杂且曲折的,涉及到货币当局、金融市场、大量的金融机构,最终影响微观主体。整个传导渠道的畅通与否及传导环节中介变量和微观主体的差异都会对最终效果产生明显影响,进而导致不同区域对单一货币政策产生非对称效应。当前中国正处于经济转轨的关键时期,尤其是经济进入新常态后,要实现经济增长方式的根本转变,货币政策的效果也将经受严峻的考验。怎样利用货币政策的理论来指导宏观货币信贷管理,竭力避免货币政策工具成为区域间发展差距拉大的因素,将是中国能否在“十三五”时期是全面建成小康社会,促进区域经济协调发展和消除贫困的关键。本文遵循“是什么”→“为什么”→“怎么办”的哲学基本分析思路,从文献梳理、理论分析、实证检验三个层次全面考察了中国货币政策区域非对称效应及其成因机制。在对国内外文献详细梳理的基础上,基于向量自回归模型(VAR)定量比较分析中国东部、中部、西部地区及31个省份在面对统一货币政策冲击时的不同响应,得出中国货币政策区域非对称效应存在的结论,并针对货币政策区域非对称效应产生的原因从最优货币区理论、货币政策传导机制理论、区域总供给总需求模型理论、中国货币政策传导的特殊性四个角度分析了货币政策区域非对称性效应的成因机制,在此基础上形成了相关的政策建议。本文内容共九章分成五个部分。第一部分是第一、二章,为本文的绪论及文献综述部分。第一章介绍了本文的研究背景、研究意义、研究方法、研究思路结构以及创新点等内容。第二章介绍了本文涉及到的相关概念,及国内外的主要研究成果。第二部分是第三章,为本文的实证部分。运用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量分析工具,构建货币政策(M2)对区域经济产出(真实GDP)和价格水平(GDP平减指数)的冲击模型。从区域整体角度出发,基于区域视角对东中西三大区域进行分析；从区域内部差异性入手,基于省际视角对31个省份进行分析,得出中国货币政策区域效应存在非对称性的结论。实证结论显示货币政策对区域内部不同省份之间的影响差异十分显著,整体来看正的货币政策冲击有效地促进东部地区经济增长,而不会带来较高的价格变化,货币政策冲击下中西部地区产出增长低于东部地区,而价格变化却高于东部地区。第三部分是第四、五、六、七章,为本文的成因机制分析部分。主要从最优货币区理论、货币政策传导机制理论、区域总供给总需求模型理论、中国货币政策传导的特殊性四个角度分析了货币政策区域非对称效应的成因机制。第四章采用劳动力流动性、经济开放度、产品多样化、资本流动性4个评价指标对中国是否构成最优货币区这一命题进行了统计研究。第五章基于货币政策传导机制理论分析了中国货币政策传导机制的基本情况,并从传导机制的核心内涵出发分析了中国各地区在金融发展水平、产业结构和企业规模结构方面的差异及其对货币政策区域非对称性效应的影响,并进行了实证检验。第六章基于区域AD-AS模型框架,探讨了区域总供给曲线的斜率以及区域总需求曲线货币政策乘数的差异,解释了中国货币政策对区域经济结构的影响,并且货币政策对发达地区经济推动作用更加显著,模型分析结果与本文第三章实证结果一致。第七章从具有特殊性的地方政府传导机制及中国货币政策工具实践的区域差异进行分析,发现地方政府对区域金融的干预,尤其是借助房地产价格传导渠道和金融信贷传导渠道进行干预,以及再贴现业务、存款利率、存款准备金率、信贷政策和再贷款政策等货币政策工具的区域传导差异也会导致货币政策的区域非对称性效应。第四部分是第八章,为政策建议部分。从货币政策区域非对称性效应的成因机制入手,提出根据统筹区域协调发展的总体要求,促进区域经济的协调发展；充分发挥现代金融对经济乘数杠杆效应,推动区域金融体系协调发展：在保持货币政策统一性的前提下,实施部分货币政策工具在一定范围内的区域差别化操作的相关政策建议。第五部分是第九章,为结论部分。阐述了本文基本结论,不足及研究展望。
[Abstract]:"What can monetary policy do and can't do, whether monetary policy is effective" (Freedman 1968) has always been the focus of macro economists. The influence and role of monetary policy on regional economy is the forefront of financial theory research. How to better grasp the control of monetary policy and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, It is only about whether the government and the monetary authorities can make scientific decisions, precision regulation and control more profoundly affect the realization of important strategic objectives, such as macroeconomic stability and regional economic coordinated development. The implementation of monetary policy is a process of total amount management, which should pay more attention to the whole macro-economy and the operation of the financial environment without considering too specific microcosmic details. This basic conclusion has become an important basis for the implementation of the unified monetary policy. However, in recent years, people have generally realized that the different economies of the same currency area are in a unified currency. Under the impact of policy, there are obvious differences in economic response effect. On the one hand, different regions use their own regional characteristics or through system reform and innovation to transform the economic potential into economic advantages and produce regional development differences; on the other hand, the transmission process of monetary policy is complex and tortuous, involving monetary authorities, financial markets, and large scale. The volume of financial institutions ultimately affects the micro body. The unimpeded flow of the whole channel and the difference between the intermediary variables and the micro bodies of the transmission link will have an obvious effect on the final effect, and thus lead to the asymmetric effect of the single monetary policy in different regions. After entering the new normal state, to realize the fundamental change in the way of economic growth, the effect of monetary policy will also stand a severe test. How to use the theory of monetary policy to guide the management of macro money and credit, and try to avoid the reason that monetary policy tools have become the widening gap between regional development, and whether China can be the whole of the "13th Five-Year" period. In order to build a well-off society and promote the coordinated development of regional economy and the key to eliminating poverty, this paper follows the basic philosophical analysis idea of "what is" "what", "why" and "how to do". From the three levels of literature review, theoretical analysis and empirical test, the asymmetric effect and its cause mechanism of China's currency policy are fully investigated. Based on the detailed combing of the literature at home and abroad, based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR), a quantitative comparison is made to analyze the different responses of the eastern, central, Western and 31 provinces in the face of the impact of the unified monetary policy, and the conclusion of the asymmetric effect in the region of China's monetary policy is concluded, and the asymmetric effect in the monetary policy region is produced. The reasons are from four aspects: the optimal currency area theory, the monetary policy transmission mechanism theory, the total demand model theory of regional total supply, the particularity of the transmission of monetary policy in China. On the basis of this, the relevant policy suggestions are formed. The content of this paper is divided into nine chapters and divided into five parts. The first part is the first, second chapter, the introduction and the literature review. The first chapter introduces the research background, research significance, research methods, research ideas structure and innovation points. The second chapter introduces the related concepts involved in this article, and the main research results at home and abroad. The second part is the third chapter, for this article. Empirical part. By using vector autoregressive model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, the impact model of monetary policy (M2) on regional economic output (real GDP) and price level (GDP reduction index) is constructed. From the regional overall perspective, the three regions of East and West are analyzed on the basis of regional perspective; from the interior of the region. On the basis of the difference, 31 provinces are analyzed on the basis of the inter provincial angle of view, and the conclusion that the regional effect of monetary policy in China is asymmetric is concluded. The empirical conclusion shows that the influence of monetary policy on different provinces in the region is very significant. With the impact of monetary policy, the output growth of the central and western regions is lower than the eastern region, but the price change is higher than that of the eastern region. The third part is the fourth, fifth, six, and seven chapter, which is the analysis part of the genetic mechanism of this article. In the four aspects of the particularity of the transmission of monetary policy in China, the formation mechanism of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy is analyzed. The fourth chapter makes a statistical study on the proposition that China constitutes the best currency area by labor mobility, economic openness, product diversification and capital liquidity. The fifth chapter is based on the analysis. The theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism analyses the basic situation of the transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy, and analyzes the differences in the financial development level, industrial structure and enterprise scale structure in various regions of China from the core connotation of the transmission mechanism, as well as the effect on the non opposite effect of the monetary policy region, and carries out an empirical test. The sixth chapter, based on the regional AD-AS model framework, discusses the slope of the regional total supply curve and the difference of the monetary policy multiplier of the regional total demand curve. It explains the influence of China's monetary policy on the regional economic structure, and the effect of monetary policy on the developed region is more significant. The results of the model analysis and the third chapter of this paper are positive. The seventh chapter analyzes the regional differences in the transmission mechanism of local government and the practice of China's monetary policy tools, and finds the intervention of local governments on regional finance, especially by means of real estate price transmission channels and financial credit transmission channels, and the rediscount business, deposit interest rate and deposit accuracy. The regional transmission differences of monetary policy instruments such as the rate of gold, the credit policy and the reloan policy will also lead to the regional asymmetric effect of monetary policy. The fourth part is the eighth chapter, which is the policy suggestion part. The fifth part is the ninth chapter. The fifth part is the ninth chapter, which is the conclusion department. Points out the basic conclusions, shortcomings and research prospects.

【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F822.0
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本文编号：1847068