基于社会经济适应性的公路里程合理规模预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 22:19

本文选题：公路里程 + 合理规模　；参考：《公路》2015年07期

【摘要】：公路里程合理规模的确定是实现公路网规划的重要步骤,是路网优化的前提和基础。针对我国公路里程合理规模预测方法多样性和不统一性等问题,为了提高我国公路里程合理规模预测值的准确性,增强合理性和可靠性,通过系统分析公路里程发展的影响因素,确定区域人口、区域面积、区域经济发展状态以及汽车保有量等因素与公路里程发展的相关水平。然后利用人口、面积、经济和汽车保有量等影响因素对公路里程生长曲线预测模型进行修正,得到社会经济生长曲线预测模型。最后利用山东省2000年~2012年历史数据,对构建的模型进行精度验证,结果表明,社会经济生长曲线预测模型误差可以控制在3%。最后,利用该模型对山东省公路里程合理规模进行预测。
[Abstract]:The determination of reasonable scale of highway mileage is an important step to realize highway network planning and the premise and foundation of road network optimization. In order to improve the accuracy, rationality and reliability of highway mileage reasonable scale prediction in China, aiming at the problems of diversity and disunity of highway mileage prediction methods in China, By systematically analyzing the influencing factors of highway mileage development, the correlation level between regional population, regional area, regional economic development state and vehicle ownership is determined. Then the forecast model of highway mileage growth curve is modified by using the influence factors such as population, area, economy and vehicle ownership, and the forecast model of social economic growth curve is obtained. Finally, using the historical data of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2012, the accuracy of the model is verified. The result shows that the error of the model can be controlled at 3%. Finally, the model is used to predict the reasonable scale of highway mileage in Shandong Province.
【作者单位】：山东交通学院交通与物流工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(No.61174175) 山东省教育厅高校科研发展计划项目(No.J12LN75) 交通运输部科技项目(No.2012-319-817-230) 山东省自然科学基金项目(No.ZR2012FL02) 济南市高校院所自主创新项目(201303024,201303014)
【分类号】：U412.1

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