中国—智利自由贸易区的福利效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 01:13

本文选题：自由贸易区 + 贸易互补性　；参考：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在WTO谈判长期受阻,经济一体化需求日益旺盛的背景下,世界各国正积极地推动各种区域经济合作。为了顺应经济全球化、合作区域化的发展,中国也积极发展自由贸易区合作伙伴。智利是世界“矿业大国”,中国对外开放和经济合作的战略目标就是充分利用“两个市场、两个资源”进行资源的合理配置,为国家经济建设服务,中国—智利自由贸易区充分体现了中国对外经济战略目标。此外,中智自贸区的建立对于中国进一步发展拉美经贸关系有着深刻意义。目前,《中国—智利自由贸易协定》、《中智自贸协定关于服务贸易的补充协定》和《中智自贸区直接投资协定》已经全部签订完毕,中智自由贸易区全方位施行。中智自贸区为双边经贸合作带来“加速度”,2012年6月,中国和智利正式宣布建立战略合作伙伴关系。中智自由贸易协定是一个高质量的、高水平的双边贸易协定,协定的实施已经带来显著的成效。自中智FTA实施8年来,双边贸易额已经翻了两番。双边降税计划将于2015年全部完成,中国与智利在资源与市场的互补性为贸易扩大提供广阔的空间。这样的互补性也给双边带来经济福利的增长,然而福利效应究竟有多少,还需要更多的量化分析。本文首先介绍了中智自由贸易协定的主要内容和特点；其次,介绍中智贸易现状与特征,分析得出中智贸易结构有结合度高、互补性强和竞争性弱的特点,且中智双边贸易以产业间贸易为主。这样的贸易结构在降税过程中将扩大双边贸易规模,对福利效应产生影响：然后,对中智自由贸易区福利效应进行实证研究,运用1999-2012年间14个国家的面板数据进行回归,测算中国智利自由贸易区进行贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应,实证结果表明中智自由贸易区对中国具有正向的贸易创造和贸易转移效应,且贸易创造效应大于贸易转移效应,即自贸区给中国带来净福利。另外,笔者用时间序列回归检验自贸区对经济的增长效应,实证结果显示自贸区对中国的经济增长具有正向促进作用；最后,提出中智自贸区发展过程中存在的问题并从中智自贸区的发展、福利效应的提高、中国发展对外贸易体系三个方面提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the WTO negotiations being blocked for a long time and the demand of economic integration increasingly exuberant, various countries in the world are actively promoting various regional economic cooperation. In order to comply with the development of economic globalization and regional cooperation, China has also actively developed its free trade zone partners. Chile is a "big mining country" in the world. The strategic goal of China's opening to the outside world and economic cooperation is to make full use of "two markets and two resources" for the rational allocation of resources to serve the country's economic construction. China-Chile Free Trade area fully embodies China's foreign economic strategic objectives. In addition, the establishment of the Sino-Chile Free Trade Zone is of great significance to China's further development of Latin American economic and trade relations. At present, the China-Chile Free Trade Agreement, the Supplementary Agreement on Trade in Services between China and Chile and the Agreement on Direct Investment in the China-Chile Free Trade area have all been signed, and the China-Chile Free Trade area has been fully implemented. China-Chile Free Trade Zone has brought "acceleration" to bilateral economic and trade cooperation. In June 2012, China and Chile formally announced the establishment of a strategic partnership. Sino-Chile Free Trade Agreement is a high-quality, high-level bilateral trade agreement, the implementation of which has brought remarkable results. Bilateral trade has quadrupled since the implementation of the FTA eight years ago. Bilateral tax cuts will be completed in 2015, with China and Chile's complementary resources and markets providing ample scope for trade expansion. Such complementarities also bring about economic welfare growth on both sides, but more quantitative analysis is needed as to how much welfare effects are. This paper first introduces the main contents and characteristics of China-Chile Free Trade Agreement, secondly, introduces the present situation and characteristics of Sino-Chilean trade, and concludes that the trade structure of China and Chile has the characteristics of high degree of integration, strong complementarity and weak competition. Moreover, bilateral trade between China and Chile is dominated by inter-industry trade. This kind of trade structure will expand bilateral trade scale in the process of tax reduction and have an impact on welfare effect. Then, the empirical study on welfare effect of Sino-Chile Free Trade area will be carried out, using panel data of 14 countries from 1999 to 2012 to return. The trade creation effect and trade transfer effect of China Chile Free Trade area are calculated. The empirical results show that China Chile Free Trade area has positive trade creation and trade transfer effect, and the trade creation effect is greater than the trade transfer effect. Namely free trade area brings net welfare to China. In addition, the author uses time series regression to test the effect of FTAs on economic growth. The empirical results show that FTAs have a positive effect on China's economic growth. The problems existing in the development of China-Chile Free Trade Zone are put forward. The development of China-Chile Free Trade Zone, the improvement of welfare effect and the development of China's foreign trade system are proposed.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7

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