1990年以来中国经济重心和人口重心时空轨迹及其耦合趋势研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 12:21

本文选题：区域差异 + 经济　；参考：《经济问题探索》2017年11期

【摘要】：经济和人口重心的轨迹变动及空间耦合状态集中反映了中国不同时段区域经济发展状况及未来趋势,对制定区域协调发展政策具有重大参考意义。借用力学中重心概念和重力模型,通过重心加权方法,探索中国1990-2014年间经济、产业和人口重心的时空演变路径,并通过耦合"经济/产业-人口"重心的空间变动过程探析经济和人口发展的协调程度,进而探讨区域协调发展趋势。发现:(1)中国经济重心大致表现出先向东南又向西南移动的宏观态势,东西方向的区域发展差异有缩小趋势,但南北差异可能会进一步扩大。(2)1990年以来,中国的三次产业重心时空格局均存在一定规律性:第一产业重心总体向西南移动;第二产业重心和经济重心时空格局相似,即先向东南继而(2010年前后)向西(略偏南)移动,中西部地区承接东部产业转移的战略措施初见成效;第三产业重心移动幅度相对较小,且大体呈现逆时针环状变动趋势,东部沿海仍处于第三产业发展的高势能区。(3)人口重心和经济重心、第三产业重心有靠近趋势,但和第一、第二产业重心有分离趋势,人口和经济的协调程度总体在增加。第三产业对人口的吸引力将远远大于第一、第二产业,是未来吸纳人口的核心产业。
[Abstract]:The locus change and spatial coupling state of economic and population center of gravity reflect the regional economic development and future trend in different periods of time in China, which is of great reference significance to the formulation of regional coordinated development policy. By using the concept of gravity center and gravity model in mechanics, this paper explores the space-time evolution path of China's economic, industrial and population gravity center from 1990 to 2014 through the method of gravity weighting. By coupling the spatial change process of the center of gravity of "economy, industry and population", this paper probes into the coordinated degree of economic and population development, and then probes into the trend of regional coordinated development. It is found that the center of gravity of China's economy shows a macro trend of moving first to southeast and southwest, and the regional development difference in east-west direction has a trend of narrowing, but the north-south difference may further expand. 2) since 1990, The space-time pattern of the three industrial centers of gravity in China has certain regularity: the center of gravity of the primary industry generally moves to the southwest, the space-time pattern of the center of gravity of the second industry and the center of economic gravity is similar, that is, the center of gravity of the second industry moves first to the southeast and then (around 2010) to the west (slightly south). The strategic measures to undertake the industrial transfer in the east in the central and western regions have achieved initial results; the tertiary industry center of gravity has a relatively small moving range, and generally presents a trend of counter-clockwise circular change. The eastern coastal area is still in the high potential energy area of tertiary industry development. The population center of gravity and economic center of gravity, the center of gravity of the third industry is close to the trend, but with the first, the center of secondary industry has the tendency of separation, and the coordination degree of population and economy is on the whole increasing. The attraction of the tertiary industry to the population will be far greater than that of the first, and the second industry will be the core industry of absorbing the population in the future.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院;桂林航天工业学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国现代人地关系演进的资源环境基础研究”(41430636),项目负责人:刘毅
【分类号】：F124

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