饱和负荷分析技术及应用研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 19:39

本文选题：饱和负荷 + 方法体系　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力的发展与经济、社会的发展进步密切相关，，电力为经济、社会的发展提供了保障，同样经济、社会的发展可以进一步拉动电力的需求与发展。随着我国经济的快速发展，城市也经历了极大的膨胀式发展，如今面临着人口密集、老龄化、土地资源紧缺、环境与空气污染严重等诸多难题，城市发展与其电网发展之间的关系既唇齿相依又有矛盾。若对城市电网的远期发展规划方面的工作缺乏或者进展不到位，则势必会给未来电网的建设与改造工作带来很多麻烦，也使改造与扩建工作的成本大大增加。而用电需求的饱和负荷预测可以确定一个地区未来电网发展与用电需求的最终规模，并以其远期电网规划目标指导近期电网的建设，从而可以有效地减少电网改造的成本，做到有步骤有条理的进行该地区区域电网的改造与建设，对区域规划、区域经济与电网之间的协调发展大有裨益。本文提到的饱和负荷分析技术主要包括饱和负荷分析预测方法体系，饱和负荷预测的具体操作与流程，误差分析技术以及模型检验技术。本文通过对国内外大量资料以及发达国家与地区经济、电力饱和发展历程与规律、特点的研究，阐述了饱和负荷的概念与特征、研究内容与研究意义，提出了饱和负荷的新内涵，修正与完善了电力饱和负荷判定量化的指标体系。更加系统的整理、总结和介绍了现有的饱和负荷预测模型与方法体系，并对饱和负荷的发展规律进行了比较深入的研究与分析，提出了基于Logistic曲线的负荷发展历程阶段划分理论。本文对饱和负荷预测的Logistic模型以及Gompertz模型进行了数值分析方面的改进，从而提高了预测精度并使得预测结果更加科学合理。本文也研究与分析了饱和负荷的影响因素，采用灰色关联度分析方法具体量化评价影响因素的作用大小，并新创了从影响因素角度来分析建模的多维度饱和负荷预测方法。该方法首先通过灰色关联度分析评估影响因素，然后选择建立以影响因素为自变量、用电需求为因变量的函数，通过最小二乘法确定具体的数学模型。该方法不仅可以评估未来用电的饱和情况，也可以对影响因素进行灵敏度分析，具有较高的预测精度，是对饱和负荷预测方法的拓展与创新；同时该方法也可以产生反馈校验指标，具有一定的指导、实用性价值。本文最后采用改进Logistic模型与多维度饱和负荷预测模型对案例进行了研究与分析，完成了对案例的用电饱和规模以及饱和时间点的预测与分析工作。
[Abstract]:The development of electricity is closely related to the economic and social development and progress. Electricity provides a guarantee for the economy and the development of the society. The development of the economy and the social development can further stimulate the demand and development of electricity. With the rapid development of our economy, the city has also experienced a great expansion development, and now it faces the dense population, the aging and the soil. The relationship between urban development and the development of power grid is both dependent and contradictory. The lack or progress of the future development planning of urban power grid will bring a lot of trouble to the construction and transformation of the future power grid. The cost of the expansion work is greatly increased. The saturation load forecast with electricity demand can determine the final scale of the future power grid development and electricity demand in a region, and guide the construction of the recent grid with its long-term grid planning objectives, thus effectively reducing the formation of the power grid transformation, and making a orderly and orderly conduct of the area. The transformation and construction of the domain power grid is of great benefit to the regional planning, the coordinated development of regional economy and the power grid. The saturated load analysis technology mentioned in this paper mainly includes the system of saturated load analysis and prediction, the specific operation and process of saturated load forecasting, the technique of error analysis and the technology of model inspection.
Through a large amount of information at home and abroad as well as the development of the developed country and region economy, the development and characteristics of the power saturation, the concept and characteristics of the saturated load, the research content and the significance of the research are expounded, the new connotation of the saturation load is put forward, and the index system of the judgement and quantification of the electric load saturation load is amended and perfected. The existing prediction model and method system of saturated load are summarized and introduced, and the development law of saturated load is studied and analyzed. The stage division theory of load development process based on Logistic curve is put forward. The Logistic model and Gompertz model of saturated load forecasting are carried out in this paper. The improvement of analysis improves the prediction precision and makes the prediction result more scientific and reasonable. This paper also studies and analyzes the influence factors of the saturation load, and uses the grey correlation analysis method to quantify the effect of the influence factors, and creates a new multi dimension saturation load preview from the influence factor angle. In this method, the influence factors are evaluated by the grey correlation analysis, and then the mathematical model is determined by the function of the dependent variable and the function of the electricity demand as the dependent variable. The method can not only evaluate the saturation of electricity in the future, but also can be sensitive to the factors. Analysis, with high prediction accuracy, is the expansion and innovation of the prediction method of saturated load. At the same time, this method can also produce feedback check index, which has certain guidance and practical value. In the end of this paper, the improved Logistic model and multi dimension saturation load forecasting model are used to study and analyze the case, and the case is completed. Prediction and analysis of saturation and saturation time.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM714

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