虚拟水理论下的区域产业结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 11:16

本文选题：虚拟水贸易 + 投入产出分析　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水是人类和生物赖以生存和发展的物质基础，是构成生态环境的基本要素，随着社会的发展和人口的增加，全球水资源供求矛盾日渐尖锐，水资源短缺问题越来越成为许多地区社会经济可持续发展的重要制约因素。如何调整产业结构、优化水资源配置，对于解决水资源短缺问题，实现社会经济和水资源的可持续发展有着重要的意义。近年来出现的“虚拟水贸易”概念作为一种节约水资源、优化区域产业结构的新型途径，给水资源管理者提供了新的视角，该视角突破了“实体水”的局限，从产品和服务中所包含的水资源虚拟水量出发，寻求人口—产品—贸易循环中水资源重新分配的最优方案，弥补了传统方法在成本、技术问题上的缺陷，对水资源可持续利用的研究有重大意义。本文从虚拟水的角度出发。首先，利用区域经济投入产出表构建了区域水资源投入产出分析框架，提出了区域产业虚拟水量化方法，并分别建立了直接虚拟水含量系数、完全虚拟水含量系数和产业部门用水乘数模型。然后，建立了基于虚拟水的指标量化体系及区域水安全评价模型，对水资源分配状况进行分析。最后，通过构建水价敏感性模型，综合考虑产业关联测度和产业用水指标的情况下，分析了区域内产业的发展选择。并提出了基于水价机制下的虚拟水贸易方法，通过适当的提高水价，使区域内各产业根据生产成本的改变调整产业规模，从而达到产业结构优化的目的。最后以天津市为研究对象，对相关理论进行了实例验证，，主要得出以下结论：基于水资源投入产出分析的虚拟水量化方法在天津市的产业结构分析中，起到了很好的量化作用；通过水安全模糊综合评价得出天津市用水结构存在一定问题，所以需要优化水资源配置以保证天津市水安全；通过水价机制下的虚拟水贸易，可以较好地调节天津市产业结构，同时在节约水资源的前提下，经济总产出也有一定的增长。由此表明通过实施虚拟水贸易战略，对缺水地区的产业结构完善、水资源利用效率提高是可行的。
[Abstract]:Water is the material basis for the survival and development of human beings and organisms, and the basic element of ecological environment. With the development of society and the increase of population, the contradiction between supply and demand of global water resources is becoming more and more acute. The shortage of water resources has become an important restriction factor for the sustainable development of social economy in many areas. How to adjust the industrial structure and optimize the allocation of water resources plays an important role in solving the shortage of water resources and realizing the sustainable development of social economy and water resources. As a new way to economize water resources and optimize regional industrial structure, the concept of "virtual water trade", which has emerged in recent years, has provided water resources managers with a new perspective, which breaks through the limitations of "solid water". Based on the virtual water quantity of water resources contained in products and services, the optimal solution of water resources redistribution in the population-product-trade cycle is sought, which makes up for the shortcomings of traditional methods in terms of cost and technology. It is of great significance to study the sustainable utilization of water resources. This paper starts from the angle of virtual water. First of all, using the regional economic input-output table to construct the regional water resources input-output analysis framework, put forward the regional industry virtual water quantification method, and establish the direct virtual water content coefficient respectively. Complete virtual water content coefficient and water multiplier model for industrial sector. Then, a quantitative index system based on virtual water and a regional water safety evaluation model are established to analyze the distribution of water resources. Finally, by constructing the water price sensitivity model, considering the industrial correlation measure and the industrial water use index, the paper analyzes the development choice of the industry in the region. The virtual water trade method based on the water price mechanism is put forward. By raising the water price properly, every industry in the region can adjust the industrial scale according to the change of the production cost, so as to achieve the purpose of optimizing the industrial structure. Finally, taking Tianjin as the research object, the paper verifies the relevant theories and draws the following conclusions: the virtual water quantization method based on the input and output analysis of water resources plays a good role in the industrial structure analysis of Tianjin; Through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water security, it is concluded that there are some problems in Tianjin's water structure, so it is necessary to optimize the allocation of water resources to ensure Tianjin's water safety; through the virtual water trade under the water price mechanism, Tianjin's industrial structure can be adjusted better. At the same time in the premise of saving water resources, total economic output also has a certain growth. The result shows that it is feasible to improve the industrial structure and the efficiency of water resources utilization by implementing the virtual water trade strategy.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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