中美在RCEP与TPP中角逐的经济影响分析

发布时间：2018-08-09 08:52

【摘要】：自2008年金融危机发生以来，全球经济形势虽然持续震荡，但复苏乏力的局面已有所改善。在区域环境中，尤其是含有新兴发展中经济体的区域环境中，密切的区域协作机制正在逐步取代多边协调机构的作用，因而区域经济的快速发展为全球经济复苏带去了一线生机。本文选取亚太地区最具代表性的正处于谈判中的两个区域性经济一体化组织——跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定（Trans-Pacific Partnership,简称“TPP”）和区域全面经济伙伴关系（RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership，简称“RCEP”）——进行比较分析，综合运用理论联系实际的方法、逻辑分析法、比较分析法和定量分析法等研究方法，旨在分析中国利用RCEP与美国利用TPP进行角逐的经济影响，从而得出结论并提出建议。论文首先在介绍RCEP与TPP基本概况的基础上，对两者展开两个层面的对比。一是从组织构成与框架协议的角度对比分析RCEP与TPP；二是从成员构成、合作机制、运作机制和协议内容等方面将RCEP、TPP同WTO、APEC进行比较研究。其次，阐述中美在RCEP与TPP中角逐的角色、面临的问题，并对两者的角逐结果进行预判。最后，用现有数据对中美两国分别在RCEP与TPP中的角逐进行静态和动态效应的探讨。文章的结论是：1.尽管TPP和RCEP标准不同，经济实力悬殊，贸易结构上均存在差距，成员国自由化水平参差不齐，但构建自由贸易区的规模效应、市场扩大效应都是巨大的；2.TPP和RCEP虽然方法手段各异，但目标结果却是相同的，都是为了促进自由贸易的发展，也都将成为推动亚太地区经济一体化的助力；3.目前的中国无论是加入TPP还是RCEP都必然会牺牲一定的代价，但是从长远来看，这种牺牲是值得的。TPP远高于RCEP的标准对现在的中国来说确实一时很难接受。然而，中国一方面可以RCEP作为一个转身的契机，借助RCEP尽快对国内产业结构以及经济政策进行合理调整，为加入TPP积极准备。4.为了TPP和RCEP的顺利推进，两者都应借鉴APEC和WTO的成功经验和失败教训，在制定高标准协定的同时，努力探寻谈判各方利益最大化的途径，坚持“开放的地区主义”，共同进步，合作互赢。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economic situation has continued to fluctuate, but the recovery has improved. In regional environments, in particular those involving emerging developing economies, close regional collaborative mechanisms are gradually replacing the role of multilateral coordinating bodies, As a result, the rapid development of regional economy has brought a vital force to the global economic recovery. This paper selects the two most representative regional economic integration organizations in the Asia-Pacific region, namely, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership,), which are under negotiation. "RCEP")-for comparative analysis, By using the methods of theory and practice, logic analysis, comparative analysis and quantitative analysis, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the economic impact of the competition between China and the United States in the use of TPP, so as to draw a conclusion and put forward some suggestions. On the basis of introducing the basic situation of RCEP and TPP, the paper compares the two levels. The first is a comparative analysis of RCEP and RCEP from the point of view of organizational structure and framework agreement, and the other is a comparative study of RCEP and RCEP from the aspects of membership, cooperation mechanism, operation mechanism and agreement content. Secondly, the roles and problems in the RCEP and TPP competition between China and the United States are expounded, and the results of the two competitions are forecasted. Finally, the static and dynamic effects of RCEP and TPP competition between China and the United States are discussed with available data. The conclusion of the article is: 1. Although the standards of TPP and RCEP are different, the economic strength is different, the trade structure is different, and the level of liberalization of member countries is not uniform, the scale effect and market expansion effect of constructing free trade area are great. 2.TPP and RCEP have different approaches and methods, but the goals are the same, both to promote free trade, and will also be a boost to economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. China's current membership of the TPP and the RCEP is bound to come at a cost, but in the long run, the sacrifice is worth it. However, on the one hand, China can take RCEP as an opportunity to turn around, with the help of RCEP to adjust the domestic industrial structure and economic policies as soon as possible, in order to actively prepare for the entry of TPP. For the smooth progress of TPP and RCEP, both should draw lessons from the successful experiences and failures of APEC and WTO. While working out a high standard agreement, they should strive to explore ways to maximize the interests of all parties to the negotiations, adhere to "open regionalism," and make common progress. Cooperate and win each other.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F744;F752;F757.12

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