中国地市经济增长的时空演变及机制分析

发布时间：2018-08-22 17:44

【摘要】：区域经济增长的时空格局及驱动力分析是制定区域政策的重要依据,该文以人均GDP表征经济增长,采用经验正交函数与空间滤波模型,探寻1985-2012年间中国335个地市经济增长的时空演变及影响因素,得出以下结论:1)地市经济增长呈"稳步抬升—渐趋稳定—开始下降"变化态势,总体变动不大,但在空间上呈现显著的集聚特征;2)地市经济增长主要呈东西反相分布,1985-2004年间东部地市的经济增长速度较快,西部地市发展较慢,而2004-2012年间中西部地市的经济成长较快,东部地市相对减缓,经济增长差异开始缩小;3)基于空间滤波误差模型识别出投资、消费、外贸、产业结构优化升级对地市经济增长起到显著拉动作用,财政支出、从业人员数量对地市经济发展的影响显著为负,城市化水平及区位条件对地市经济增长的促进作用并不显著。
[Abstract]:The analysis of spatial and temporal patterns and driving forces of regional economic growth is an important basis for the formulation of regional policies. In this paper, the economic growth is represented by per capita GDP, and empirical orthogonal function and spatial filtering model are used. This paper explores the temporal and spatial evolution and influencing factors of economic growth in 335 prefectures in China from 1985 to 2012, and draws the following conclusion: (1) the economic growth of prefectures shows a trend of "steady uplift, gradual stabilization and beginning to decline", with little overall change. However, the economic growth of prefectures is mainly distributed in the east and west regions in the period 1985-2004, the economic growth rate of the eastern prefectures is relatively fast, the development of the western prefectures and cities is slower, but the economic growth of the central and western prefectures is relatively fast during 2004-2012, and the economic growth of the central and western prefectures is relatively fast in the period of 2004-2012. Eastern prefectures relatively slow down, the difference of economic growth begins to narrow. 3) based on spatial filtering error model, investment, consumption, foreign trade and industrial structure optimization and upgrading play a significant role in promoting economic growth in prefectures and cities. The number of employees has a negative effect on the economic development of prefectures and cities, while the level of urbanization and location conditions have no significant effect on the economic growth of prefectures and cities.
【作者单位】：南京师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271176、41271128、41329001)) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
【分类号】：F299.23

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