新疆人口空间动态对区域经济发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-09-08 09:09

【摘要】：人口是决定经济增长最重要的因素之一。随着绝大多数发达国家和部分发展中国家人口结构的急剧转变，世界各国对人口问题的关注也开始从最初的人口数量问题向人口结构、人口迁移等多层面的人口问题转变。新疆地处亚欧大陆腹地，与八个国家接壤，是一个多民族聚居，多宗教并存，多文化、多生态、多资源、多体制共生的特殊地区。新疆人口空间动态不仅具有我国人口问题的一般性特征，而且表现出与我国其他省区不同的特征。研究新疆人口空间动态对区域经济发展的影响，合理优化新疆人口空间动态，能够将人口发展的各个层面进行系统整合，有利于重新审视人口发展与经济发展问题，对于新疆经济社会持续稳定发展意义重大。本文首先对人口空间动态的内涵在相关研究基础上进行了科学的界定，将人口空间动态内涵界定为“人口发展过程和人口现象的空间表现形式及其地域差异，以及他们与自然和人口各环境要素之间的相互影响和相互制约的关系”，从而将人口空间动态的研究划分为动态的人口迁移、变化的人口结构和静态的人口分布三层内容。首先，本文对新疆人口空间动态的特征和区域经济发展的特征进行了分析，从人口空间动态内涵出发总结出了新疆人口空间动态发展的10大特征，以锡尔指数分析为基础发现新疆区域经济发展的突出特征就是区域经济发展不平衡问题，地区间经济发展差距过大是新疆经济发展中应着力解决的问题。在对人口与经济发展关系理论梳理的基础上。从理论上推导了人口空间动态对区域经济发展的影响机理，分别研究了静态人口空间分布对区域经济发展的效应、动态人口迁移对区域经济增长的效应和存在广义资本流动条件下的人口空间动态总效应。其次，本文从理论上和实证上分析了人口空间动态对区域经济发展的影响。从理论上看，无论是封闭条件下的人口自然增长还是开放环境下的人口迁移流动均对经济发展具有重要影响，人口迁移带动了人力资本和物质资本迁移从而引起了地区经济发展差距的变动。文章基于人口空间动态内涵的三个层面实证分析了人口空间动态对区域经济发展的影响。从人口空间分布看，新疆人口密度的增加有利于经济发展，但是新疆人口数量的增加需要选择特定的地区，而不是人口密度已经过高的地区；从人口迁移层面看，新疆人口迁移对于地区经济发展起到了促进作用，而且人口迁移是缩小新疆地区经济发展差距的重要途径，新疆应加快人口迁移进程，尤其是南疆地区人口应扩大迁移范围，通过与发达地区的互动抵消内部人口迁移流动对经济发展的消极影响。另外，我们基于新经济地理学要素空间集聚的分析逻辑研究了新疆人口空间动态与区域经济发展的一致性问题，发现新疆人口空间动态与经济发展在空间上表现出明显的非协同性，协同性较好的只有石河子、乌鲁木齐、昌吉和巴州等地，，绝大部分地区处于人口集中度大于经济集中度的初级演变阶段，由此我们提出了人口空间动态优化的政策必要性。基于以上分析，本文认为优化新疆人口空间动态对于新疆经济社会稳定快速发展具有重要意义。因此，文章在新疆人口空间动态三层内涵的基础上构建了新疆人口空间动态优化的政策体系，提出新疆人口增长优化是基点，人口迁移优化是关键，人口结构优化是中心环节，人口分布优化是归宿四个方面的人口空间动态优化政策。
[Abstract]:Population is one of the most important factors determining economic growth. With the rapid change of population structure in most developed countries and some developing countries, the attention of the world on population problems has begun to shift from the initial population problem to the population structure, population migration and other multi-level population problems. It is a special area with multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multi-cultural, multi-ecological, multi-resource and multi-system. The spatial dynamics of population in Xinjiang not only has the general characteristics of population problems in China, but also shows different characteristics from other provinces and regions in China. The influence of development and rational optimization of population spatial dynamics in Xinjiang can integrate all aspects of population development systematically, which is conducive to re-examining the issue of population development and economic development. It is of great significance to the sustainable and stable development of Xinjiang's economy and society.
Firstly, this paper defines the connotation of population spatial dynamics scientifically on the basis of relevant research, and defines the connotation of population spatial dynamics as "the spatial manifestations and regional differences of population development and population phenomena, as well as the mutual influence and mutual restriction between them and the environmental factors of nature and population". Thus, the study of population spatial dynamics can be divided into three layers: dynamic population migration, changing population structure and static population distribution.
Firstly, this paper analyzes the characteristics of population spatial dynamics and regional economic development in Xinjiang, sums up 10 characteristics of population spatial dynamics in Xinjiang from the connotation of population spatial dynamics, and finds that the prominent feature of regional economic development in Xinjiang is the unbalanced development of regional economy on the basis of Syl index analysis. On the basis of combing the theory of the relationship between population and economic development, this paper theoretically deduces the influence mechanism of population spatial dynamics on regional economic development, and studies the effects of static population spatial distribution on regional economic development and dynamic population respectively. The effect of migration on regional economic growth and the total effect of population spatial dynamics under the condition of generalized capital flow are analyzed theoretically and empirically in this paper. Moving average has an important impact on economic development. Population migration drives the migration of human capital and material capital, which leads to the change of regional economic development gap. The increase of population density is conducive to economic development, but the increase of population in Xinjiang needs to select specific areas rather than areas with excessive population density; from the perspective of population migration, population migration in Xinjiang has played a role in promoting regional economic development, and population migration is an important way to narrow the economic development gap in Xinjiang. In addition, based on the analysis logic of spatial agglomeration of new economic geography, we study the spatial dynamics of population and regional economic development in Xinjiang. The consistency of the exhibition shows that the spatial dynamics of population and economic development in Xinjiang show obvious non-synergy in space. Only Shihezi, Urumqi, Changji and Bazhou have better synergy. Most of the areas are in the primary evolution stage where the degree of population concentration is greater than that of economic concentration. Therefore, we put forward the spatial dynamics of population. Policy necessity of state optimization.
Based on the above analysis, this paper holds that optimizing the spatial population dynamics in Xinjiang is of great significance to the stability and rapid development of Xinjiang's economy and society. Population structure optimization is the key link and population distribution optimization is the dynamic optimization policy of population space.
【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;C92-05

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