基于效应分析的推进中俄自由贸易区建设研究
发布时间：2018-11-09 15:02
【摘要】：伴随着经济全球化进程,区域经济一体化成为世界发展的重要潮流,而自由贸易区的快速发展也成为了区域经济一体化的重要方式。截至2013年6月,中国正与五大洲的29个国家和地区建设16个自贸区,已经签署并实施12个自由贸易协定。2012年,中俄贸易额达到881.6亿美元,同比增长11.2%,中国已经成为俄罗斯的第一大贸易伙伴,占俄国际贸易总额的10%以上,同时,俄罗斯是中国的第九大贸易伙伴。2012年,俄罗斯正式加入WTO,俄罗斯将在WTO法律规则框架内开展国际贸易,俄罗斯也准备与其他国家进行自由贸易区的谈判。但是,以边境小额贸易和能源贸易为主体的中俄贸易,越来越适应不了当前的形势。如何深化和发展两国的经贸关系,越来越受到两国学者的关注。在区域经济一体化和两国的经济互补性的背景下,中俄应考虑两国经贸关系战略升级,建立自由贸易区,推动中俄经贸关系向更高水平、更大规模迈进。 本文在大量阅读文献、收集相关资料的基础上,以比较优势理论、关税同盟理论、自由贸易区理论以及产业内贸易理论为理论基础,首先指出建设中俄自由贸易区的现实基础,阐述中俄在双边贸易、双向投资、科技合作、能源合作、劳务合作、跨境交通网络建设等领域合作发展的现状及存在问题,并指出作为建设中俄自由贸易区现实基础的经济特区建设概况；然后,从自然资源、劳动力资源、科技实力、产品结构四个方面阐述中俄两国在经济上的互补性,采用对外贸易依存度指数衡量对外贸易对中俄两国的作用,采用显性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数衡量中俄两国在国际贸易中的互补性,采用产业内贸易指数衡量中俄两国产业内贸易水平；再次,分析建设中俄自由贸易区产生的经济效应,通过建立贸易引力模型对中国与别国双边贸易的影响因素加以分析,测算中俄当前的贸易水平为“贸易不足”,基础建设自由贸易区对中俄双边贸易的重要作用,并通过局部分析模型对中俄自由贸易区产生的贸易创造效应加以预测；最后,根据研究分析结果,提出推进中俄自由贸易区建设的对策建议。 本文以分析产生经济效应作为视角对中俄自由贸易区进行研究,深入分析中俄双边贸易的影响因素以及建设自由贸易区对中俄贸易的影响,并预测产生效应。中俄自由贸易区建设将是一个复杂、漫长的过程,希望中俄两国可以克服重重困难并实现目标,也希望本文能对推进中俄自由贸易区建设提供一定的理论依据。
[Abstract]:With the process of economic globalization, regional economic integration has become an important trend of world development, and the rapid development of free trade zones has become an important way of regional economic integration. As of June 2013, China is building 16 free trade zones with 29 countries and regions on five continents, and has signed and implemented 12 free trade agreements. In 2012, Sino-Russian trade volume reached 88.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.2 percent over the same period last year. China has become Russia's largest trading partner, accounting for more than 10 percent of Russia's total international trade, and Russia is China's ninth largest trading partner. In 2012, Russia formally joined the WTO, Russia will conduct international trade within the framework of the WTO rules and regulations, and it is ready to negotiate free trade zones with other countries. However, Sino-Russian trade, dominated by border micro-trade and energy trade, is becoming more and more unfit for the current situation. How to deepen and develop the economic and trade relations between the two countries has attracted more and more attention from scholars of the two countries. Under the background of regional economic integration and economic complementarity between the two countries, China and Russia should consider the strategic upgrading of economic and trade relations between the two countries, establish a free trade zone, and promote Sino-Russian economic and trade relations to a higher level and on a larger scale. On the basis of reading a great deal of literature and collecting relevant data, this paper, based on comparative advantage theory, customs union theory, free trade area theory and intra-industry trade theory, first points out the realistic foundation of building Sino-Russian free trade zone. Expounding the current situation and existing problems of Sino-Russian cooperation in the fields of bilateral trade, two-way investment, scientific and technological cooperation, energy cooperation, labor cooperation, cross-border transportation network construction, etc. It also points out the general situation of the construction of special economic zones, which is the realistic foundation of the construction of Sino-Russian free trade area. Then, from the four aspects of natural resources, labor resources, scientific and technological strength, and product structure, this paper expounds the economic complementarity between China and Russia, and uses the foreign trade dependency index to measure the role of foreign trade in China and Russia. The dominant comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index are used to measure the complementarity between China and Russia in international trade, and the intra-industry trade index is used to measure the level of intra-industry trade between China and Russia. Thirdly, it analyzes the economic effects of the construction of China-Russia Free Trade area, analyzes the influencing factors of bilateral trade between China and other countries by establishing a trade gravity model, and calculates that the current level of trade between China and Russia is "insufficient trade". Basic construction free trade zone plays an important role in bilateral trade between China and Russia, and the trade creation effect of Sino-Russian free trade zone is predicted by partial analysis model. Finally, according to the research and analysis results, put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the construction of Sino-Russian Free Trade area. This paper studies the Sino-Russian Free Trade area from the perspective of economic effect, analyzes the influence factors of bilateral trade between China and Russia and the influence of building free trade area on Sino-Russian trade, and forecasts the effect. The construction of China-Russia Free Trade area will be a complicated and long process. It is hoped that China and Russia can overcome many difficulties and achieve their goals. It is also hoped that this paper can provide some theoretical basis for promoting the construction of Sino-Russian Free Trade area.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7
本文编号：2320750
[Abstract]:With the process of economic globalization, regional economic integration has become an important trend of world development, and the rapid development of free trade zones has become an important way of regional economic integration. As of June 2013, China is building 16 free trade zones with 29 countries and regions on five continents, and has signed and implemented 12 free trade agreements. In 2012, Sino-Russian trade volume reached 88.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.2 percent over the same period last year. China has become Russia's largest trading partner, accounting for more than 10 percent of Russia's total international trade, and Russia is China's ninth largest trading partner. In 2012, Russia formally joined the WTO, Russia will conduct international trade within the framework of the WTO rules and regulations, and it is ready to negotiate free trade zones with other countries. However, Sino-Russian trade, dominated by border micro-trade and energy trade, is becoming more and more unfit for the current situation. How to deepen and develop the economic and trade relations between the two countries has attracted more and more attention from scholars of the two countries. Under the background of regional economic integration and economic complementarity between the two countries, China and Russia should consider the strategic upgrading of economic and trade relations between the two countries, establish a free trade zone, and promote Sino-Russian economic and trade relations to a higher level and on a larger scale. On the basis of reading a great deal of literature and collecting relevant data, this paper, based on comparative advantage theory, customs union theory, free trade area theory and intra-industry trade theory, first points out the realistic foundation of building Sino-Russian free trade zone. Expounding the current situation and existing problems of Sino-Russian cooperation in the fields of bilateral trade, two-way investment, scientific and technological cooperation, energy cooperation, labor cooperation, cross-border transportation network construction, etc. It also points out the general situation of the construction of special economic zones, which is the realistic foundation of the construction of Sino-Russian free trade area. Then, from the four aspects of natural resources, labor resources, scientific and technological strength, and product structure, this paper expounds the economic complementarity between China and Russia, and uses the foreign trade dependency index to measure the role of foreign trade in China and Russia. The dominant comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index are used to measure the complementarity between China and Russia in international trade, and the intra-industry trade index is used to measure the level of intra-industry trade between China and Russia. Thirdly, it analyzes the economic effects of the construction of China-Russia Free Trade area, analyzes the influencing factors of bilateral trade between China and other countries by establishing a trade gravity model, and calculates that the current level of trade between China and Russia is "insufficient trade". Basic construction free trade zone plays an important role in bilateral trade between China and Russia, and the trade creation effect of Sino-Russian free trade zone is predicted by partial analysis model. Finally, according to the research and analysis results, put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the construction of Sino-Russian Free Trade area. This paper studies the Sino-Russian Free Trade area from the perspective of economic effect, analyzes the influence factors of bilateral trade between China and Russia and the influence of building free trade area on Sino-Russian trade, and forecasts the effect. The construction of China-Russia Free Trade area will be a complicated and long process. It is hoped that China and Russia can overcome many difficulties and achieve their goals. It is also hoped that this paper can provide some theoretical basis for promoting the construction of Sino-Russian Free Trade area.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7
【共引文献】
相关博士学位论文 前10条
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7 朱可辛;俄罗斯发展进程中的普京阶段[D];中共中央党校;2008年
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9 马晶;冷战后韩国的东北亚政策研究[D];延边大学;2009年
10 郭文君;图们江区域合作开发中延边经济发展战略研究[D];延边大学;2009年
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