若羌县耕地变化及其驱动力分析

发布时间：2018-11-15 10:00

【摘要】：耕地是人类衣食之源以及生存发展的重要资源。耕地利用变化和保护问题己成为土地利用/土地覆被变化（LUCC）研究的重要组成部分。开展耕地利用变化研究,分析耕地利用变化的驱动因子,有利于合理利用耕地资源、保障区域粮食安全、调整农业用地结构、促进区域经济、环境协调发展。本文以新疆巴州若羌县耕地作为研究对象，以县级行政区域为统计单元，在收集1949～2012年人口与耕地统计数据和1999～2012年社会经济发展历史数据的基础上，分析若羌县耕地资源的现状和其变化特点，运用主成分分析法对若羌县耕地变化的驱动力进行研究，结果表明：（1）64年来，若羌县耕地经历了不同的变化趋势，将它可以分为四个阶段：一是1949～1960年，全县耕地面积呈增加趋势。从1949年到1960年耕地面积一直上升，由1526.67hm2上升到3660hm2，年均耕地增加率为193.94hm2。二是1961～2001年，耕地面积数量曲线呈波浪性下降趋势。1978年耕地面积下降到历史最低点，就是2200hm2。三是2002～2009年，此期间耕地面积超速上升。一下子随着加快建设全国最优红枣基地为目标，继续扩大红枣面积，因此开垦荒地热一下子上升。耕地面积在2009年达到最高值，就是7480hm2。平均年增长率为达751.4hm2/年。四是2010～2012年，全县耕地面积呈保持没明显变化，慢速下降趋势。在水文要素的限制性的条件下，不能进行大范围的开垦荒地，为了追求经济效益，原有的耕地转变为枣树地，其速度也较快，因此从2010年开始耕地面积呈慢速下降趋势。若羌县每个人所占有的耕地面积呈两次上升、两次下降的趋势。耕地变化区域差异度计算结果表明，若羌县不同的乡镇耕地变化速度和区域差异明显。（2）对耕地变化各驱动因素所进行的定性、定量分析结果表明：若羌县耕地变化的主要驱动因素包括社会经济发展水平、农业技术的进步、人口数量和农业结构的调整等。这些因素在政策与市场导向的作用下，从2001年开始，若羌耕地面积快速上升，到2010年在若羌水资源要素的限制性的影响下，耕地变化呈慢速下降趋势。（3）根据耕地变化各驱动因素性质，，从法律、政策、经济、农业技术、农业用地结构的调整、粮食安全和水利建设手段等方面提出了若羌县耕地资源保护对策。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is the source of human food and clothing and an important resource for survival and development. Cultivated land use change and protection have become an important part of land use / land cover change (LUCC) research. The study of cultivated land use change and the analysis of the driving factors of cultivated land use change are beneficial to rational utilization of cultivated land resources, ensuring regional food security, adjusting agricultural land structure, promoting regional economic and environmental coordinated development. In this paper, the cultivated land in Ruoqiang County, Bazhou Prefecture, Xinjiang is taken as the research object, the county administrative region is taken as the statistical unit, and the statistical data of population and cultivated land from 1949 to 2012 and the historical data of social and economic development from 1999 to 2012 are collected. This paper analyzes the present situation and characteristics of cultivated land resources in Ruoqiang County, and studies the driving force of cultivated land change in Ruoqiang County by principal component analysis. The results show that: (1) the cultivated land in Ruoqiang County has experienced different trends in the past 64 years. It can be divided into four stages: first, from 1949 to 1960, the area of cultivated land in the whole county showed an increasing trend. From 1949 to 1960, the area of cultivated land increased from 1526.67hm2 to 3660hm2.The average annual increase rate of cultivated land was 193.94hm2. In 1978, the cultivated land area decreased to the lowest point in history, that is, 2200hm ~ (2). Third, from 2002 to 2009, the area of cultivated land increased during this period. As the goal of speeding up the construction of the national optimum jujube base, the area of jujube continues to expand, so the heat of reclaiming wasteland rises. Cultivated land reached its highest level in 2009, at 7480hm2. The average annual growth rate was 751.4hm2/ year. Fourth, from 2010 to 2012, the cultivated land area of the whole county maintained no obvious change, and the trend of slow decline. Under the restrictive conditions of hydrological factors, it is impossible to reclaim wasteland on a large scale. In order to pursue economic benefit, the original cultivated land is transformed into jujube field, and its speed is also relatively fast, so the cultivated land area has been decreasing slowly since 2010. The cultivated land occupied by each person in Ruoqiang County increased twice and decreased twice. The results showed that the rate of change and regional difference of cultivated land in different villages and towns of Ruoqiang County were obvious. (2) the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the driving factors of cultivated land change shows that the main driving factors of cultivated land change in Ruoqiang County include the level of social and economic development, the progress of agricultural technology, the adjustment of population and agricultural structure, etc. Under the influence of policy and market orientation, the cultivated land area of Ruoqiang increased rapidly from 2001 to 2010, and the change of cultivated land decreased slowly under the restriction of water resources in Ruoqiang in 2010. (3) according to the nature of the driving factors of cultivated land change, this paper puts forward the protection countermeasures of cultivated land resources in Ruoqiang County from the aspects of law, policy, economy, agricultural technology, adjustment of agricultural land structure, food security and means of water conservancy construction, etc.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.211

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