盘锦市物流需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-12-16 18:02

【摘要】：盘锦市是中国著名的石油化工生产基地之一,而且也是重要的高质量农产品加工生产基地和一流的大米出口基地。但是最近几年,因为辽河油田原油、天然气产量缩小的影响,盘锦市作为资源型城市与生俱来的矛盾和问题日益尖锐,如何实现可持续发展这一艰巨任务刻不容缓。2007年6月,国务院振兴东北地区等老工业基地领导小组的第四次全体会议上确定将盘锦市列为全国资源型城市经济转型试点市,盘锦市也是2009年《辽宁沿海经济带发展规划》提议的主要建设四个循环经济重点城市之一,这为盘锦培育接续产业如石油化工、装备制造、塑料与新型材料、有机绿色食品、现代服务业等提供了不竭动力。目前,对盘锦市发展现代物流业方面的研究成果较少,城市在大步向前发展的同时缺乏系统的发展战略规划的指导,极易出现过度开发、盲目建设城市物流基础设施的现象,造成城市物流供给能力与需求水平的失衡,因此,进行科学合理的城市物流发展规划对于快速发展中的盘锦是十分必要的。论文分别从城市物流需求概述、需求预测模型简介、盘锦市物流业发展现状及盘锦市物流需求预测四方面展开研究。首先,介绍了本文所涉及的城市物流相关理论；其次,介绍了本文要使用的预测模型；再次,本文对盘锦市发展现代物流的宏观经济形势、区域经济情况和城市自身环境条件进行全面的分析；最后,针对盘锦市,借助SAS和MATLAB等软件进行城市物流需求预测,分别选用灰色预测模型、逐步回归预测法、多项式曲线拟合预测法及组合预测模型进行预测,依次分析了各模型预测结果的准确性,并预测了2014-2016年盘锦市的货运量及货运周转量,预测结果显示盘锦市发展物流的发展空间广阔,最后对盘锦市物流的发展规划提出相应的建议。
[Abstract]:Panjin is one of the famous petrochemical production bases in China. It is also an important processing and production base of high quality agricultural products and a first-class rice export base. However, in recent years, due to the impact of shrinking crude oil and natural gas production in Liaohe Oilfield, Panjin City, as a resource-based city, has become increasingly acute in its inherent contradictions and problems. How to achieve sustainable development is an arduous task that needs no delay. In June 2007, At the fourth plenary meeting of the leading Group of the State Council for the Revitalization of the Northeast and other Old Industrial bases, it was decided that Panjin City should be listed as a pilot city for the economic transformation of the national resource-based cities. Panjin City is also one of the four key cities of circular economy proposed by the "Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt Development Plan" in 2009. This is for Panjin to cultivate the following industries such as petrochemical, equipment manufacturing, plastics and new materials, organic green food, The modern service industry and so on has provided the inexhaustible motive force. At present, there are few research results on the development of modern logistics industry in Panjin City, and the city is striding forward while lacking the guidance of systematic development strategy planning, which is prone to over-development and blind construction of urban logistics infrastructure. As a result of the imbalance between supply capacity and demand level of urban logistics, it is necessary to carry out scientific and reasonable urban logistics development planning for panjinas in rapid development. In this paper, the overview of urban logistics demand, the introduction of demand forecasting model, the development of logistics industry in Panjin and the logistics demand prediction in Panjin are studied. Firstly, this paper introduces the related theories of urban logistics, secondly, introduces the prediction model to be used in this paper. Thirdly, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the macro-economic situation, regional economic situation and the city's own environmental conditions of Panjin city's development of modern logistics. Finally, according to Panjin City, with the help of SAS and MATLAB software to forecast the urban logistics demand, the grey forecasting model, the stepwise regression forecasting method, the polynomial curve fitting forecasting method and the combined forecasting model are used to forecast the urban logistics demand, respectively. The accuracy of the forecasting results of each model is analyzed in turn, and the freight volume and freight turnover of Panjin City from 2014-2016 are forecasted. The prediction results show that Panjin City has a wide development space for logistics development. Finally, the development plan of Panjin logistics is proposed.
【学位授予单位】：大连交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.27

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