沧州地区地面沉降成因机理及沉降量预测研究

发布时间：2019-03-18 11:24

【摘要】：由于工业化和城市化的快速发展，华北平原普遍发生了地面沉降。地面沉降已经成为影响区域经济社会发展的主要环境问题。本论文以华北平原地面沉降典型区沧州地区为研究对象，系统分析了该地区的地面沉降成因机理，应用地下水数值模型模拟了地下水动力场在时、空方面的变化和发展，预测了该区地面沉降的发展趋势。 全面搜集并分析了研究区地面沉降相关环境地质资料，从区域地质环境、水文地质条件入手，结合MapGIS空间分析方法，得出了沧州地区乃至整个华北平原的地面沉降与深层地下水开采之间的量化关系。随后，选择沧州地面沉降区的典型试验孔为研究对象，对粘性土体物理特征、土体压缩变形规律及粘性土渗透特征进行分析，进而对沧州地区地面沉降成因机理进行了研究。 根据区域地层结构及粘性土渗透特征，，利用Processing Modflow软件构建了沧州地区地下水水流模型；根据地下水模型对地下水位进行预测，得到2020年两种开采条件下第Ⅲ含水层的最大水位埋深分别为106.8m和101.2m；结合水位埋深与累计沉降量关系及地下水开采量与累计沉降量关系，建立回归模型，从“点”上对沧州地区2020年地面沉降发展趋势进行预测，在现状开采下，两种方程得到的最大累计沉降量分别为3002.7mm和3004.7mm；压采条件下，两种方程得到的最大累计沉降量分别为2590.2mm和2986.3mm。预测结果表明，预测期内，沧州市地面沉降中心仍然位于沧州市区，进一步说明地下水开采与地面沉降的关系，为地面沉降综合治理及预防提供了依据。 最后，选择京沪高铁沧州北段为研究区，从该区的地形、地貌、工程地质等条件出发，结合综合分析法、层次分析法，并应用ArcGIS软件构建了地面沉降危险性评价模型，对该研究区的地面沉降危险性进行了分区评价，并提出了相应的地面沉降防治措施，为城市规划、建设及未来发展提供了基础。
[Abstract]:Due to the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, land subsidence occurred generally in the North China Plain. Land subsidence has become a major environmental problem affecting regional economic and social development. In this paper, Cangzhou area, a typical area of land subsidence in North China Plain, is taken as the research object, and the formation mechanism of land subsidence in this area is analyzed systematically. The variation and development of groundwater dynamic field in time and space are simulated by using the numerical model of groundwater. The development trend of land subsidence in this area is predicted. The related environmental geological data of land subsidence in the study area are collected and analyzed comprehensively, starting with the regional geological environment and hydrogeological conditions, combined with the spatial analysis method of MapGIS. The quantitative relationship between land subsidence and deep groundwater exploitation in Cangzhou and even the whole North China Plain is obtained. Then, the typical test holes in Cangzhou land subsidence area are selected as the research object, and the physical characteristics of cohesive soil, the law of soil compression and deformation and the seepage characteristics of cohesive soil are analyzed, and then the cause of formation of land subsidence in Cangzhou area is studied. According to the regional stratum structure and the seepage characteristics of clayey soil, the groundwater flow model in Cangzhou area is constructed by using Processing Modflow software. According to the groundwater model, the maximum water level depth of aquifer 鈪

本文编号：2442818