美联储量化宽松政策对美国宏观经济的影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 10:29

本文关键词：美联储量化宽松政策对美国宏观经济的影响研究　出处：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：美联储的量化宽松政策从2008年11月开始到目前已进行了四轮,并一直强调在合适时机针对金融市场和宏观经济的状况逐渐退出量化宽松政策。对美联储量化宽松政策的推出背景、实施过程、传导机制和影响的了解,能够丰富对非常规货币政策的认识,为将来可能出现的类似情形提供货币政策参考。目前,大多学者认为量化宽松政策对金融市场有着较为积极的影响,实现了其稳定金融体系的政策目标,而在对宏观经济的影响上还存在分歧。因此,在认识短期名义利率较低水平下美联储量化宽松政策的现状基础上,进一步研究其对宏观经济带来的影响,有助于明确量化宽松政策的有效性和局限性。本文希望通过阐述美联储推出量化宽松的政策目标、政策工具和传导机制来了解面对零利率情况下采取的量化宽松政策,通过构建结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型来分析美联储的量化宽松政策对美国宏观经济的影响。本文的主要结论是：短期名义利率和货币供给对物价稳定有较好的政策效果,但对于经济增长和劳动力市场的政策效果则表现一般,经济增长增速缓慢,失业率增加；相比较短期名义利率冲击,货币供给冲击对宏观经济指标波动的解释力较弱,量化宽松政策对宏观经济的调控需要在零基准利率远期指导的配合下发挥作用；此外,宏观经济指标波动对货币政策中介变量冲击的敏感度不同,其中通货膨胀目标能够比较好地反映出量化宽松政策的效果,相对于失业率目标,通货膨胀的变动能够向货币当局传递比较明显的货币政策调整信号。本文的结构如下：第一部分为引言,主要阐述选题背景、意义、研究方法、创新点以及难点等；第二部分为文献回顾,对已有的相关国内外文献进行综述,将政策影响从传导机制和作用对象两个角度进行阐述；第三部分为现状介绍,对美联储实施量化宽松政策的背景、推出过程以及退出和影响进行概述；第四部分是SVAR模型构建、变量的选取与说明、数据来源及处理；第五部分是实证分析,基于模型识别进行变量之间的静态分析,并借助脉冲响应图和方差分解分析货币政策冲击对相关变量波动的动态分析；最后是结论与启示。
[Abstract]:The Fed's quantitative easing policy started to now have been four rounds from November 2008, and has been emphasized in the appropriate time for the financial market and macroeconomic situation gradually withdraw from the quantitative easing policy. The Fed's quantitative easing policy to introduce the background, implementation process, transmission mechanism and effect of understanding, to enrich the understanding of unconventional monetary the policy of monetary policy, to provide reference for the similar situation may arise in the future.
At present, most scholars believe that the quantitative easing policy has a positive impact on the financial market, realize the stability of the financial system and policy objectives, in the macroeconomic impact on the differences still exist. Therefore, in the understanding of short-term nominal interest rates at a low level under the Fed's quantitative easing policy based on the present situation, further study on the impact of on the macro economy, effectiveness and limitation to help clear the quantitative easing policy.
This paper hopes to launch quantitative easing policy objectives through the elaboration of the Fed policy instruments and transmission mechanism to understand the quantitative conditions take the face of the zero interest rate easing, by constructing a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to analyze the impact of the Fed's quantitative easing policy of the United States economy.
The main conclusions of this paper are: the short-term nominal interest rate and the money supply has a good effect on the policy of price stability, but for economic growth and labor market policies are in general, slow growth in economic growth, the unemployment rate increased; compared the short-term nominal interest rate shocks, explain the weak currency supply shocks on macroeconomic volatility index. The regulation of the quantitative easing policy on macroeconomic needs with the guidance of the benchmark interest rate at zero forward role; in addition, macroeconomic index fluctuations on the impact of monetary policy intermediary variables have different sensitivity, the inflation target can better reflect the effectiveness of quantitative easing, the unemployment rate relative to the target, the fluctuation of inflation to transfer money the policy adjustment significant signals to the monetary authorities.
This paper is structured as follows: the first part is the introduction, mainly elaborated the background, significance, research methods, innovations and difficulties; the second part is literature review of related literature at home and abroad has been reviewed, the policy will affect the conduction mechanism from two aspects and the role of the object are elaborated; the third part is the present situation, the implementation of quantitative easing the Fed's background, launch process and exit and influence are outlined; the fourth part is the construction of SVAR model, variable selection and description, data sources and processing; the fifth part is the empirical analysis, the model identification based on static analysis between variables, and using the pulse decomposition analysis of the impact of monetary policy on dynamic analysis the response variable fluctuation map and variance; the last is the conclusion and enlightenment.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F171.2;F827.12

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