京津冀区域经济增长趋同及其机制分析

发布时间：2018-01-01 20:02

本文关键词：京津冀区域经济增长趋同及其机制分析　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文研究所采用的理论是新古典经济增长理论以及新经济增长理论,运用经典趋同模型分析现阶段京津冀地区的长期经济增长是否存在趋同,该地区经济增长的影响因素以及趋同路径,从而为缩小区域内部的经济差异,促进区域经济健康发展提供政策建议。首先,本文研究了学者们关于地区间经济增长趋同问题的文献资料,并对文献进行了分类整理。在梳理相关文献的基础上,从趋同的基本定义入手,阐释新古典经济增长理论及其趋同机制、新经济增长理论。其次,本文选取人均GDP和GDP总量,研究了京津冀地区的经济增长的绝对差异和相对差异。绝对差异的分析采用的是极差、标准差,结果表明1996-2014年京津冀地区人均GDP的绝对差异在不断扩大;相对差异的指标为变异系数、加权平均离差和泰尔指数,结果显示相对差异呈现出先扩大后缩小的趋势。再次,本文剖析了京津冀地区经济增长的趋同类型。实证分析表明,1996-2002年京津冀地区不存在绝对β-趋同和σ-趋同,而在2003-2014年存在绝对β-趋同和σ-趋同。本文在趋同检验模型中依次加入物质资本、城市化水平、劳动力、对外开放和产业结构五个控制变量研究条件β-趋同,实证分析表明物质资本、城市化水平、劳动力因素及对外开放使得京津冀地区1996-2014发生条件β-趋同,而产业结构因素并未造成该地区出现条件β-趋同。同时,本文采用主成分分析和因子分析实证检验了京津冀地区经济增长的影响因素,结果表明外商直接投资、政府支出、城市化水平、固定资产投资、产业结构因素对京津冀地区的经济增长作用较大。之后,本文通过实证分析得出京津冀地区经济增长的趋同路径。最后,提出了缩小京津冀地区经济增长差距、促进经济健康发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The theory used in this paper is the new classical economic growth theory and the new economic growth theory, using the classical convergence model to analyze whether there is convergence of long-term economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at present. The influencing factors and convergence paths of the economic growth in this region will provide policy advice for narrowing the economic differences within the region and promoting the healthy development of the regional economy. This paper studies the scholars' literature on the convergence of regional economic growth, and classifies the literature. On the basis of combing the relevant literature, it starts with the basic definition of convergence. Explain the neo-classical economic growth theory and its convergence mechanism, the new economic growth theory. Secondly, this paper selects the per capita GDP and GDP total. The absolute and relative differences of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are studied. The absolute differences are analyzed by extreme deviation and standard deviation. The results show that the absolute difference of per capita GDP in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is increasing from 1996 to 2014. The index of relative difference is coefficient of variation, weighted average deviation and Thiel index. The results show that the relative difference shows a tendency of first expanding and then decreasing. Thirdly. This paper analyzes the convergent types of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The empirical analysis shows that there is no absolute 尾 -convergence and 蟽 -convergence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1996 to 2002. In 2003-2014, there were absolute 尾 -convergence and 蟽 -convergence. In this paper, physical capital, urbanization level and labor force were added to the convergence test model in turn. The empirical analysis shows that the material capital and the level of urbanization are similar in the five control variables of opening to the outside world and industrial structure. The labor force factor and opening to the outside world make the condition 尾-convergence occur in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region from 1996 to 2014, but the industrial structure factor has not caused the condition 尾-convergence in this area. At the same time. This paper uses principal component analysis and factor analysis to test the influencing factors of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that foreign direct investment, government expenditure, urbanization level, fixed asset investment. Industrial structure factors play a greater role in the economic growth of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. After that, this paper obtains the convergence path of the economic growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by empirical analysis. Finally, it proposes to narrow the gap of economic growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Policy recommendations to promote healthy economic development.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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