消费信贷对我国消费需求的拉动效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 02:18

本文关键词：消费信贷对我国消费需求的拉动效应研究　出处：《湖南师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,国际经济形势的低迷对我国出口贸易造成了一定程度的冲击,这种现状表明了外部需求具有不稳定性。2013年第十二届全国人民代表大会一次会议提出,要坚持我国扩大内需的长期经济发展战略方针不动摇,并充分发挥消费在经济发展中的基础性作用。消费信贷作为能够扩大内需、拉动消费的有效手段,成为国家重要的经济战略措施。消费信贷在我国是以1999年央行发布《关于开展个人消费信贷的指导意见》为起点,近年来在政府转变经济增长方式、促进居民消费结构优化升级、积极出台鼓励消费信贷政策等一系列因素的影响下得以快速发展。本文以现代消费理论为基础,结合我国经济发展与消费信贷的特殊性,以理论分析为基础、实证分析为重点,对我国消费信贷对消费需求的拉动效应进行全面分析检验。具体来说,从理论上进行分析,消费信贷可以从五个方面对居民消费需求产生拉动效应。其中包括借助于投资乘数与货币创造乘数的共同作用、改变居民的预算线、抑制大额刚性支出对居民当期消费的约束、融通消费资金、转变居民的消费观念。实证分析作为本文的主要研究方法,主要对三个问题进行实证检验。首先从总体上检验消费信贷对消费需求的拉动效应,检验结果表明：我国城镇居民消费需求同时对于收入以及消费信贷存在着“过渡性敏感”,消费信贷的发展会对消费需求产生一定的拉动效应；然后,结合我国收入差距过大的特殊国情,本文研究不同收入水平下,消费信贷对于消费需求拉动效应的差异性,检验结果表明：消费信贷主要对高收入群体的消费需求产生较强的拉动效应,而对于中等及偏上收入群体的消费需求会产生较为微弱的影响,本文认为这是由于“挤出效应”的存在而导致；最后,本文分析检验消费信贷对消费需求产生拉动效应的作用途径,检验结果表明：消费信贷主要通过增加居民当期收入、缓解其面临的流动性约束,拉动居民的住房以及耐用品的消费水平,而未对非耐用品消费产生显著影响。最后,本文基于前文的研究结论,对我国发展消费信贷提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the downturn of the international economic situation has caused a certain degree of impact on China's export trade. In 2013, the first session of the 12th National people's Congress proposed that China should adhere to the long-term economic development strategy of expanding domestic demand. And give full play to the basic role of consumption in economic development. Consumer credit as an effective means to expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption. Consumer credit has become an important economic strategic measure in our country. In recent years, the government has changed the mode of economic growth with the guidance issued by the central bank on 1999. Under the influence of a series of factors, such as promoting the optimization and upgrading of residents' consumption structure and actively introducing policies to encourage consumer credit, it can develop rapidly. This paper is based on modern consumption theory, combined with the particularity of China's economic development and consumer credit, on the basis of theoretical analysis, empirical analysis as the focus. This paper makes a comprehensive analysis and test on the pulling effect of consumer credit to consumer demand. Specifically, it analyzes the effect of consumer credit on consumption demand theoretically. Consumer credit can produce pull effect on consumer demand from five aspects, including changing the budget line of residents with the help of the combination of investment multiplier and currency creation multiplier. Restraining the large amount of rigid expenditure on the current consumption of residents, financing consumption funds, changing residents' consumption concept. Empirical analysis as the main research method of this paper. First of all, the paper examines the pull effect of consumer credit on consumer demand as a whole. The results show that the consumption demand of urban residents in China is "transitional sensitive" to income and consumer credit at the same time, and the development of consumer credit will have a certain pull effect on consumer demand; Then, combined with the special situation of the excessive income gap in China, this paper studies the difference of the effect of consumer credit on consumer demand under different income levels. The results show that consumer credit mainly has a strong pull effect on the consumption demand of the high-income group, while it has a weaker impact on the consumption demand of the middle and upper income groups. This paper argues that this is due to the existence of "extrusion effect". Finally, this paper analyzes the ways to test the effect of consumer credit on consumer demand. The test results show that consumer credit can alleviate the liquidity constraints mainly by increasing residents' current income. The consumption level of housing and durable goods is not significantly affected by the consumption of non-durable goods. Finally, based on the previous research conclusions, this paper puts forward policy recommendations for the development of consumer credit in China.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1;F832.479

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