日本产业结构演进与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 09:19

  本文关键词：日本产业结构演进与经济增长的关系研究　出处：《延边大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 日本 产业结构演进 经济增长 三次产业

【摘要】：当前的经济形势下,产业结构演进和经济增长的关系是密不可分的,产业能否推动良好的改革直接影响了经济增长能否平稳的进行,产业结构能否成功升级直接影响了一个国家的经济概况。二战以来,从世界上主要发达国家的经济发展历史状况来看,虽然各国的政策略有不同,但各国之间有关产业结构的政策是相似的。经济发展史证明,日本创造了奇迹,对我国来说具有重要的研究价值。中国和日本都是东北亚地区的重要经济体,两国之间存在着巨大的经济互补性与借鉴性,以邻国日本为例,运用产业结构演进趋势理论、经济增长理论、产业结构演进与经济增长相互关系理论等,对日本产业结构演进与经济增长的关系进行分析,其产业结构按照轻工业、重工业、第三产业的历史脉络演变发展。20世纪70年代以来,日本的经济增速虽呈现高速增长、低速稳定增长、负增长的态势,但是经济总量却在不同程度的增加,产业结构也在不断优化。随着日本经济的恢复和高速增长,全社会的就业率水平也得到了不断提升。但是,泡沫经济的破灭,对社会的就业水平造成了一定程度的负面影响,总就业率水平上下波动、止步不前。选取产业结构高级化和合理化两种指标来衡量日本产业结构演进状况,得出的结论是日本产业结构一直处在向高级化和合理化演进的过程中。产业结构高级化和合理化对经济增长均有正面影响,产业结构越合理越能促进经济的增长,但是在不同阶段对经济增长的影响不同。1980年至2013年特别是21世纪以来,日本经济长期停滞,而产业结构不断趋于高级化,第三产业增长速度明显超过第二产业及整体经济增长的速度,在这一时期产业结构演进与经济增长出现了负相关的现象,这与日本经济发展的阶段有着很大的关系。此外,协整检验说明日本产业结构演进与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;通过Granger因果检验说明日本产业结构合理化与经济增长是双向因果关系,而日本产业结构高级化与经济增长是单向因果关系。最后根据日本实际情况,在借鉴日本产业结构演进的基础上对我国产业结构调整提出了相关建议,我国应该加快产业结构优化升级、促进产业协调发展、大力发展第三产业、注重经济增长绩效、合理制定产业政策等。
[Abstract]:Under the current economic situation, the relationship between the evolution of industrial structure and economic growth is inseparable. Whether the industry can promote good reform directly affects the smooth progress of economic growth. The successful upgrading of industrial structure directly affects the economic situation of a country. Since World War II, the economic development history of the major developed countries in the world, although the policies of different countries slightly different. However, the policies on industrial structure among countries are similar. The history of economic development has proved that Japan has created a miracle and has important research value for China. China and Japan are both important economies in Northeast Asia. There is a huge economic complementarity and reference between the two countries. Taking neighboring Japan as an example, using the theory of industrial structure evolution trend, economic growth theory, the relationship between industrial structure evolution and economic growth theory and so on. This paper analyzes the relationship between the evolution of Japan's industrial structure and its economic growth. Its industrial structure has evolved and developed according to the historical context of light industry, heavy industry and tertiary industry since 70s. Although Japan's economic growth rate shows a rapid growth, low speed and stable growth, negative growth trend, but the total economic volume is increasing in varying degrees. The industrial structure is also continuously optimized. With the recovery and rapid growth of the Japanese economy, the employment rate of the whole society has also been continuously raised. However, the bubble economy burst. On the social employment level caused a certain degree of negative impact, the total employment rate fluctuated up and down, stopped. Select two indicators of industrial structure upgrading and rationalization to measure the evolution of industrial structure in Japan. The conclusion is that Japan's industrial structure has been in the process of upgrading and rationalizing, and the industrial structure has a positive impact on economic growth. The more reasonable the industrial structure, the more the economic growth can be promoted, but the impact on economic growth is different in different stages. From 1980 to 2013, especially since 21th century, the Japanese economy has stagnated for a long time. However, the industrial structure tends to be more advanced, and the growth rate of the tertiary industry is obviously higher than that of the secondary industry and the overall economic growth. In this period, the evolution of the industrial structure has a negative correlation with the economic growth. In addition, the cointegration test shows that there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between the evolution of Japanese industrial structure and economic growth. Granger causality test shows that the rationalization of Japanese industrial structure and economic growth is a two-way causal relationship. The industrial structure of Japan and economic growth is a one-way causal relationship. Finally, according to the actual situation of Japan, on the basis of the evolution of Japan's industrial structure, put forward some suggestions on the adjustment of China's industrial structure. China should speed up the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, promote the coordinated development of industry, vigorously develop the tertiary industry, pay attention to the performance of economic growth, and rationally formulate industrial policies.
【学位授予单位】：延边大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F131.3
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本文编号：1396518