基于空间计量模型的我国省域间经济增长收敛性研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 18:10

本文关键词：基于空间计量模型的我国省域间经济增长收敛性研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：区域经济分析中的一个热点问题是对经济增长收敛性的研究,基于新古典经济增长理论发展而来的经济增长收敛模型是研究区域经济增长收敛的主要实证分析模型,经济增长的收敛性指的是不同经济区域间之间人均产出水平的差距存在逐渐缩小的趋势,随着时间的推移,最终可以实现经济平衡增长。改革开放以来,我国经济增长迅速,不同地区之间经济增长速度差异很大,不论是经济增长规模还是经济增长速度,东部地区要明显大于中部和西部地区,缩小地区经济差距,促进区域经济协调发展是我国面临的重要课题。传统的关于经济增长收敛的研究以地区之间相互独立为假设前提,忽视了地理空间因素的影响,而实际情况是不同经济区域之间的经济贸易往来,资本、技术、人才等生产要素的流动使得任何一个经济区域都不是独立的个体,经济增长存在空间相关性。因此,通过传统的经济增长收敛模型得出的结论往往是有偏差甚至是不可靠的。本文采用空间计量经济学的方法,通过构造空间权重矩阵将空间地理因素引入经济增长收敛模型,选取实际人均GDP作为衡量经济增长的指标,选取资本存量、技术、就业人口占比、二三产业占比等作为可能影响经济增长收敛的因素,研究了我国29个省份1980-2015年间经济增长的收敛性。研究发现,我国省域间经济增长存在显著的正的空间相关性,省份之间空间溢出效应明显,一个省份的经济增长水平显著地受到邻近省份经济增长水平的影响,相比于空间误差模型,采用空间滞后模型更加适合分析我国省域间经济增长的收敛性。?收敛分析结果表明,我国省域间经济增长差距的绝对水平存在着逐年减小的趋势。绝对?收敛和和条件?收敛模型表明,1980-2015年的整体平均水平上,我国不存在绝对?收敛,但存在条件?收敛,技术、就业人口占比、二三产业占比是影响经济增长收敛的条件。1994年后,我国存在绝对?收敛趋势,并且随着时间的推移,绝对?收敛趋势愈加明显,绝对?收敛速度也在增大,2004-2015年绝对?收敛速度约为1.3%。在所研究的四个时间段内,我国均存在较为显著的条件?收敛,技术资本一直是影响经济增长收敛的条件,因此,各省份之间加强技术交流与合作是缩小经济差距的有效途径。
[Abstract]:A hot issue in the analysis of regional economy is the research on the convergence of economic growth. The convergence model of economic growth based on neoclassical economic growth theory is the main empirical analysis model to study the convergence of regional economic growth. The convergence of economic growth refers to the trend that the gap of per capita output level between different economic regions has gradually narrowed. With the passage of time, economic growth can finally be achieved balanced. Since the reform and opening up. China's economic growth is rapid, the economic growth rate is very different between different regions, regardless of the scale of economic growth or economic growth rate, the eastern region is obviously larger than the central and western regions, narrowing the regional economic gap. To promote the coordinated development of regional economy is an important subject facing our country. The traditional research on convergence of economic growth assumes that the regions are independent of each other and neglects the influence of the geographical spatial factors. The actual situation is that the economic and trade exchanges between different economic regions, capital, technology, talent and other factors of production flow makes any economic region is not an independent individual. There is spatial correlation in economic growth. Therefore, the conclusions obtained by the traditional convergence model of economic growth are often biased or even unreliable. This paper adopts the method of spatial econometrics. By constructing the spatial weight matrix, the spatial geographical factors are introduced into the economic growth convergence model, the actual per capita GDP is chosen as the index to measure economic growth, and the capital stock, technology and the proportion of employed population are selected. As the factors that may influence the convergence of economic growth, the paper studies the convergence of economic growth between 1980 and 2015 in 29 provinces of China. There is a significant positive spatial correlation between provinces in China, the spatial spillover effect between provinces is obvious, and the level of economic growth in one province is significantly affected by the level of economic growth in neighbouring provinces. Compared with the spatial error model, the spatial lag model is more suitable to analyze the convergence of inter-provincial economic growth in China. Convergence analysis shows that the absolute level of economic growth gap between provinces in China is decreasing year by year. Convergence sum and condition? Convergence model shows that there is no absolute on the overall average level of 1980-2015 in China? Convergence, but conditions for existence? Convergence, technology, the proportion of employed population, secondary and tertiary industries are the conditions that affect the convergence of economic growth. After 1994, there are absolute? Convergence trend, and over time, absolute? The trend of convergence is becoming more obvious, absolute? Convergence rate is also increasing, 2004-2015 absolute? The convergence rate is about 1.3. In the four time periods studied, there are significant conditions in our country. Technology capital has always been the condition to influence the convergence of economic growth. Therefore, strengthening technical exchange and cooperation among provinces is an effective way to narrow the economic gap.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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