人民币有效汇率、产业结构对我国通货膨胀的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-16 00:21

  本文关键词：人民币有效汇率、产业结构对我国通货膨胀的影响分析　出处：《对外经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 汇率 产业结构 通货膨胀 VaR模型

【摘要】：我国改革开放后,逐步打开国际市场的大门,对外贸易成为我国产出的重要组成部分,至2006年我国贸易依存度达64.2%,之后有所回落。人民币汇率的波动,对我国商品市场和货币市场均带来一定的冲击。在过高的贸易依存度下,汇率的波动势必会对我国经济造成一定程度的影响。合理的安排产业结构或许能减缓输入型通货膨胀及预防供给失衡引起的通货膨胀。另一方面我国自身产业结构发展历程存在自身缺陷性,我国60年代到90年代均因为农副产品及食品价格上涨造成严重的通货膨胀。2000年后我国未曾发生恶性通货膨胀,但2004年、2008年及2011年三次小幅度的通货膨胀又都是因为食品价格的上涨。同时,由于通货膨胀引起原材料及人工等成本价格上涨则又会引发行业内的格局发生变化,小企业及经营不善的企业面临破产和重组,大企业面临转型或升级,甚至引发行业间的格局变革。因此,研究产业结构与通货膨胀的关系为我国预防供给侧结构失衡引发的通货膨胀及产业规划布局具有一定的参考价值。本文选择2000年-2016年的人民币有效汇率、消费者价格指数、第三产业占比增加值共201个季度数据作为研究对象,对以上数据进行单位根检验,稳定性检验并构建VaR模型。对三个变量进行格兰杰因果检验及脉冲响应分析,最后对其做方差分解分析进行实证研究。实证结果显示,人民币汇率升值对我国第三产业占比增加值有正向的影响作用,且长期来看影响贡献度增长较大;人民币汇率波动对我国通货膨胀有负向作用,但由方差分解结果来看贡献度较低,解释力度较小;第三产业占比增加值对通货膨胀的影响效果为正,但贡献度较低,基本不存在解释力度。并结合实证结果针对改善汇率机制、治理通货膨胀、规划产业结构方面提出一些建议。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, China gradually opened the door of the international market, foreign trade has become an important part of our output, by 2006, China's trade dependence reached 64.2%. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has brought a certain impact to both the commodity market and the money market of our country. The fluctuation of exchange rate is bound to have a certain impact on our economy. Reasonable arrangement of industrial structure may slow down the imported inflation and prevent the inflation caused by the imbalance of supply. On the other hand, China's own industrial structure may be able to reduce the inflation caused by the imbalance of supply. The process of structure development has its own defects. From 60s to 60s, China caused serious inflation due to the increase of agricultural and sideline products and food prices. After 2000, there was no hyperinflation in our country, but 2004. In 2008 and 2011, three small increases in inflation were due to rising food prices. At the same time. Due to inflation caused by the rise in raw materials and labor costs will lead to changes in the industry, small enterprises and poor management of enterprises facing bankruptcy and restructuring, large enterprises are faced with transformation or upgrading. Even led to a change in the structure of the industry. The study of the relationship between industrial structure and inflation has certain reference value for preventing inflation and industrial layout caused by supply-side structural imbalance in China. This paper chooses RMB from 2000 to 2016. Effective exchange rate. Consumer price index, the third industry added a total of 201 quarterly data as the research object, the above data unit root test. Stability test and construction of VaR model. Granger causality test and impulse response analysis of the three variables. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis of the empirical study. The empirical results show. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate has a positive effect on the added value of the tertiary industry in China, and in the long run, the contribution of the effect is greater. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has negative effect on inflation in China, but the contribution is low and the explanation is less according to the result of variance decomposition. The effect of the added value of tertiary industry on inflation is positive, but the contribution is low, and there is no explanation. Combined with the empirical results to improve the exchange rate mechanism, control inflation. Some suggestions on industrial structure planning are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.5;F121.3;F822.5
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本文编号：1430729