我国能源消费结构与产业结构协同效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 00:28

本文关键词：我国能源消费结构与产业结构协同效应研究　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前我国经济处于“新常态”下的发展阶段,其基本特点就是整体经济增速放缓,经济结构优化节奏加快,能源结构低碳化要求日益迫切。能源消费结构的调整能够实现节能减排、低碳环保的目标,而产业结构的优化则可以保障经济增长的长效机制。同时,能源消费结构会对产业结构的发展产生影响,产业结构升级也将对能源消费结构的优化起到带动作用。因此,要满足中国对能源安全与可持续发展的内在现实需求,能源消费结构与产业结构就必须相互协调、相互依存、相互适应,通过各系统内若干个协调点建立动态关联关系促进彼此优化升级,实现共同发展。基于上述背景,在分析当前研究及成果的基础上,本文探究了我国能源消费结构和产业结构的协同效应。首先,介绍了研究两者趋势及动态关系所运用的相关统计方法理论,阐明了协同的基础理论；然后,分析了两者发展现状,其中运用HP滤波、VAR脉冲响应等方法探究了两者的变动趋势及动态关系；以此为基础,构建了两者耦合协调模型,评价两者协同效应,提出推进两者协同发展的相应对策。研究结果表明：①我国能源消费结构和产业结构变化显著,两者转型升级步伐加快。②煤炭比重与第三产业的比重负相关,能源消费结构整体“去煤化”态势明显,第三产业比重的不断增大,这表明中国经济正加速由工业主导转变为服务业主导。③能源消费结构和产业结构两者之间具有较强的动态关系,产业结构的变化对能源消费结构的冲击并不明显,但仍有一定影响,能源消费结构对产业结构的作用为负且波动较大。④我国能源消费结构和产业结构都实现了快速发展,两者也保持了强劲的互动关系,然而,整体上并没有形成协同发展的局面,尤其是早期失衡状况严重,勉强达到协调,随着能源与产业的发展、相关政策的引导,两者相互促进相互提升的作用得到了发挥,协调度显著提高。
[Abstract]:The current China's economy is in the stage of development under the new normal, its basic feature is the overall slowdown in economic growth, optimizing the economic structure to speed up the pace of energy, low carbon requirements increasingly urgent. The adjustment of energy consumption structure to achieve energy-saving emission reduction, low carbon environmental protection goals, long-term mechanism and the optimization of the industrial structure can guarantee economic growth. At the same time, the energy consumption structure will influence the development of the industrial structure, the upgrading of the industrial structure will also promote the optimization of energy consumption structure. Therefore, to meet the Chinese on energy security and sustainable development of the inner reality demand, energy consumption structure and industrial structure must be coordinated and interdependent. To adapt to each other, through a number of coordinating the various systems within the established dynamic relationship to promote the optimization and upgrading of each other, to achieve common development. Based on the above background, in the analysis when Based on the former research and the results, this paper explores the synergistic effect of China's energy consumption structure and industrial structure. Firstly, introduces the theory of related statistical methods used to study both the trend and dynamic relationship, expounding the basic theory of cooperation; then, analysis the development present situation, including the use of HP filter, VAR pulse in response to the changing trend of the two methods of inquiry and dynamic relations; on this basis, the construction of two coupled coordination model to evaluate their synergistic effect, put forward the corresponding countermeasures of the coordinated development of the two. The results showed that the change of China's energy consumption structure and industrial structure significantly accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading, the proportion of coal and the two. The proportion of the third industry is negatively related to the overall energy consumption structure to coal situation significantly, increasing the proportion of the third industry, which indicates that the Chinese economy is accelerated by industry As the leading industry leading transformation services. With strong dynamic relationship between the energy consumption structure and industrial structure between the two, the change of industrial structure on energy consumption structure of the impact is not obvious, but there is still a certain effect, effect of energy consumption structure on the industrial structure is negative and fluctuation. The structure of China's energy consumption and industry the structure has realized rapid development, they also maintained a strong interactive relationship, however, on the whole does not form a coordinated development of the situation, especially early in serious imbalance, barely achieve coordination, with the development of energy industry and the related policy guidance, both promote each other to enhance the role of the play, coordination degree increased significantly.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F206;F121.3

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