产业结构影响能源效率的理论机制及实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-20 09:19

本文关键词： 能源效率动态模型非线性分位数面板门限面板　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国综合国力骤升,这都得益于经济、工业化和城市化的快速发展。经济的快速发展伴随着能源的大量消耗,工业化和城市化带来高投入、高能耗、低效率、发展方式粗放、结构不合理等现象,导致经济发展与能源消耗之间的矛盾日益突出,大大拉低了能源效率。现今,如何有效提高能源效率成为了当下的热点问题。产业结构作为影响经济发展和能源效率的重要因素,其结构性调整成为提高能源效率必不可少的手段。本文在介绍能源效率和产业结构的基本理论、现状和产业结构影响能源效率的理论机制的基础上,选取单位能耗GDP测度能源效率、三种不同的指标分别度量产业结构,在对已有文献进行学习、归纳和整理之后,加入经济发展、城市化水平、能源价格和技术进步这四个控制变量,分别针对全国和省际数据建立模型,进行研究和分析,得到以下结论:(1)描述性分析发现,第二产业对经济增长的拉动力虽然大,但需要消耗以煤炭为主的大量能源;第三产业对经济增长的拉动力没有第二产业显著,但对能源的依赖度远低于第二产业,且其主要消耗以天然气、电力等高效能源为主。(2)时序数据动态计量模型结果表明,能源效率滞后项对能源效率有较大的影响;产业结构对能源效率的影响滞后现象明显;另外,经济发展和城市化水平对能源效率也具有滞后现象。(3)静态面板模型结果显示,产业结构对能源效率的影响存在区域性,第二产业占比对能源效率有抑制影响,第三产业占比对能源效率有促进作用;经济增长、城市化和技术进步能有效地促进能源效率提高,能源价格则会抑制能源效率的提高。(4)动态面板模型结果表明,能源效率的滞后一期项对能源效率有显著正向影响;其他变量对能源效率的影响与静态面板模型结果相似。(5)分位数面板模型结果显示,第二产业占比和第三产业占比对能源效率的影响在各分位点上始终保持负向和正向作用,但影响程度都存在波动性;其他变量在各分位数点上对能源效率的影响也存在变动。(6)门限面板模型结果表明,以第二产业占比或第三产业占比表征的产业结构与能源效率的模型都不存在门限效应,但非农产业占比与能源效率存在单门限效应,非农产业的发展可以促进能源效率提升。最后,对如何提高我国能源效率提出了几点政策建议。本文的创新主要体现在以下几个方面:(1)运用静态面板模型和动态面板模型就产业结构与能源效率的线性关系进行对比分析。(2)利用分位数面板模型和门限面板模型解析产业结构和能源效率的非线性关系。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's comprehensive national strength has risen sharply, which has benefited from the rapid development of economy, industrialization and urbanization. The rapid economic development accompanied by a large amount of energy consumption, industrialization and urbanization bring high investment. High energy consumption, low efficiency, extensive development mode, unreasonable structure and other phenomena, leading to the increasingly prominent contradiction between economic development and energy consumption, greatly reduced the energy efficiency. How to effectively improve energy efficiency has become a hot issue. Industrial structure as an important factor affecting economic development and energy efficiency. The structural adjustment has become an indispensable means to improve energy efficiency. This paper introduces the basic theory of energy efficiency and industrial structure, the current situation and the theoretical mechanism of industrial structure affecting energy efficiency. Choose unit energy consumption GDP to measure energy efficiency, three different indicators to measure the industrial structure, in the existing literature learning, induction and collation, add economic development, urbanization level. The four control variables of energy price and technological progress are studied and analyzed according to the national and provincial data, and the following conclusions are obtained: 1) descriptive analysis. Although the second industry has a large pull on economic growth, it needs to consume a large amount of energy based on coal. The third industry has no significant impact on economic growth, but its dependence on energy is much lower than that of the secondary industry, and its main consumption is natural gas. Dynamic measurement model of time-series data shows that the lag term of energy efficiency has great influence on energy efficiency. The effect of industrial structure on energy efficiency is lagging behind. In addition, economic development and urbanization level also have lag phenomenon on energy efficiency. The results of static panel model show that the impact of industrial structure on energy efficiency is regional. The proportion of the secondary industry has a restraining effect on the energy efficiency, while the proportion of the tertiary industry has a positive effect on the energy efficiency. Economic growth, urbanization and technological progress can effectively promote energy efficiency, energy prices will inhibit the improvement of energy efficiency. 4) dynamic panel model results show that. The lag term of energy efficiency has a significant positive effect on energy efficiency. The effect of other variables on energy efficiency is similar to that of static panel model. The effect of the ratio of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry on the energy efficiency is always negative and positive, but the degree of influence is fluctuating. The effect of other variables on energy efficiency is also variable at each quantile. 6) the results of threshold panel model show that. There is no threshold effect in the model of industrial structure and energy efficiency characterized by the ratio of the secondary industry or the tertiary industry, but there is a single threshold effect between the ratio of non-agricultural industries and the energy efficiency. The development of non-agricultural industries can promote energy efficiency. Finally. Some policy suggestions on how to improve China's energy efficiency are put forward. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects: 1). Using static panel model and dynamic panel model to analyze the linear relationship between industrial structure and energy efficiency. The quantile panel model and threshold panel model are used to analyze the nonlinear relationship between industrial structure and energy efficiency.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F121.3;F206

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