中国区域产业结构演化的路径突破

发布时间：2018-01-28 10:56

本文关键词： 路径突破路径依赖产业演化产业进入产业退出生产能力政府补贴　出处：《地理科学进展》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在经济转型新阶段,如何突破已有资源条件的束缚,创造新的产业发展路径是区域经济增长的突破口。路径依赖和路径突破是区域创造产业发展路径的两种途径,已有演化经济地理学研究证实区域生产结构的演化依赖地区已有生产能力,是一种路径依赖的结果,而谁是突破区域现有生产能力实现新路径创造的开拓者却尚未得知。本文基于1999-2012年中国337个地级城市的424个四位数产业数据,沿用Hidalgo等人对生产能力的定义,研究中国产业演化过程中路径突破的可能,结果发现:地区新产业的进入以及已有产业的退出有助于地区突破对原有生产结构的依赖,是区域产业发展新路径的创造者。政府补贴一方面有利于地区现有生产能力的提升,增强地区路径依赖趋势;另一方面可为地区带来新的路径,实现路径突破并为区域创造新的发展机会。此外,政府补贴影响产业演化路径选择的效用受地方财政能力限制,并在空间上存在显著差异。
[Abstract]:In the new stage of economic transformation, how to break through the constraints of existing resources. Creating a new industrial development path is a breakthrough in regional economic growth. Path dependence and path breakthrough are two ways to create a regional industrial development path. Studies on evolutionary economic geography have proved that the evolution of regional production structure depends on the existing productive capacity of the region, which is a result of path dependence. But it is not known who is the pioneer who broke through the new path of regional production capacity. This paper is based on 424 four-digit industry data of 337 prefecture-level cities in China from 1999 to 2012. According to the definition of productive capacity by Hidalgo et al, this paper studies the possibility of path breakthrough in the process of industrial evolution in China. The results show that the entry of regional new industries and the withdrawal of existing industries will help the region break through the dependence on the original production structure. On the one hand, government subsidies are conducive to the promotion of regional existing production capacity, and enhance the trend of regional path dependence; On the other hand, it can bring a new path for the region, achieve a path breakthrough and create new development opportunities for the region. In addition, the utility of government subsidies to affect the path choice of industrial evolution is limited by the local financial capacity. And there are significant differences in space.
【作者单位】：北京大学城市与环境学院;北京大学—林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心;
【基金】：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(41425001)~~
【分类号】：F121.3
【正文快照】： 1引言在经济转型的新阶段,如何突破已有资源条件的束缚,实现产业结构演化路径的突破是区域经济发展的重要课题(Scott et al,1987;Martin et al,2006,2010)。对于依赖已有资源程度较深的区域,开拓新的发展路径,实现多样化发展的生产条件积累不足,容易陷入路径锁定的困境(Maskel

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