中国金融发展与经济增长多重均衡现象的存在性及其转换机理

发布时间：2018-02-03 09:58

本文关键词： STAR 多重均衡金融发展经济增长　出处：《浙江理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：学术研究的一个热点问题是金融发展与经济增长两者的关系问题，尽管很多研究者已经运用了很多种方法来研究该问题，，但是其研究结论却始终不一致，甚至相反。在研究金融发展与经济增长两者关系的文献中，金融发展与经济增长两者之间是否存在多重均衡这一问题尽管非常重要，但却鲜少被人仔细研究。根据对金融发展与经济增长两者之间关系存在突变性的判断，本文以我国1978-2012的相关季度数据作为样本数据，创新性的运用平滑过渡自回归（STAR）模型，从金融发展的三个维度指标——金融中介指标，金融深化指标和金融效率指标，重新验证了中国的金融发展与经济增长两者之间的多重均衡问题。本文首先对国内外相关文献和理论进行了梳理，在总结多重均衡研究文献存在不足之处的同时，与中国的金融发展与经济增长两者之间关系的实际相结合，提出了本文的两个假说，即我国是否存在金融发展与经济增长两者之间的多重均衡问题，以及若存在，在什么情况下达到低水平均衡，在什么情况下达到高水平均衡。在假说证明的过程中，我们选取了三个指标来刻画金融发展，选取实际GDP指标来刻画经济增长，并在此基础上构造了三个STAR模型，试图用三个不同的视角来考察中国金融发展与经济增长两者之间的关系。研究得到了以下几个结论：（1）我国确实存在金融发展与经济增长两者之间的多重均衡现象,且这种现象具有对转型阶段的敏感性。（2）在1992年前后，我国处在金融的低水平发展阶段，同时我国经济也处于一个低水平的增长阶段，即金融发展与经济增长两者之间的低水平均衡；在1996年前后，我国的经济增长与金融发展相对处于一个较高的水平，对应的，我国金融发展与经济增长两者之间处于一个高水平的均衡状态。本文最后阐明实证结论的经济含义，并且从政府，企业和金融系统等方面提出相关的政策建议，同时指出本文在研究中存在的不足之处和未来对该问题研究的侧重点。
[Abstract]:A hot issue of academic research is the problem of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, although many researchers have used many methods to study this problem, but the conclusion is not always consistent, even the opposite. In the study of financial development and economic growth, the relationship between the two in the literature, the existence of multiple equilibria in this a problem between the financial development and economic growth even though very important, but are rarely studied. According to the existence of the relationship between the financial development and economic growth change of judgment, according to China's 1978-2012 quarter data as the sample data, using innovative smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model, from the financial development of the three dimensions: financial intermediation indicators, indicators of financial deepening and financial efficiency, to verify the China between financial development and economic growth The problem of multiple equilibrium between them.
Based on the domestic and foreign related literature and theories, summarizes the research literature in multiple equilibria exist deficiencies at the same time, the actual and the relationship between financial development and economic growth Chinese combining both, puts forward the two hypotheses, multiple equilibrium problem is whether our country exists between financial development and economic growth of the two, and if there is, at low level under what circumstances, to reach the high level equilibrium under what circumstances. In the process of proof of the hypothesis, we selected three indicators to describe the financial development, select the actual GDP indicators to describe the economic growth, and on the basis of constructing three STAR model, trying to to study the relationship between financial development and economic growth Chinese both in three different perspectives. The research obtained the following conclusions: (1) the existence of financial development and economic growth Multiple equilibria between the two, and this phenomenon is sensitive to the transition stage. (2) before and after 1992, the low level of China's stage of development in finance, while China's economy is in a low level of growth stage, the low level of financial development and economic growth between the two in 1996; before and after the financial development and economic growth in China is in a high level, corresponding, between financial development and economic growth in China is the high level of a balanced state.
At last, the paper clarifies the economic implications of the empirical conclusions, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations from the aspects of government, enterprises and financial system. Meanwhile, it points out the shortcomings of this research and the future research priorities.

【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F832.1

【参考文献】