基于GIS和BP的原州区空间贫困及其分异机制研究

发布时间：2018-02-07 15:16

本文关键词： 空间贫困 GIS BP神经网络分异机制　出处：《宁夏大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：贫困是困惑人类发展的全球性难题,也是发展中国家实现可持续发展所面临的严重挑战之一,而贫困地区的发展是我国现阶段全面建设小康社会进程中十分重要和紧迫的问题。宁夏回族自治区是西部少数民族自治区,贫困地区主要分布在中部干旱带和南部山区(即宁夏六盘山集中连片特殊困难地区),该地区生态脆弱,土地瘠薄,常年干旱少雨,自然灾害频繁,水土流失严重,且人口、资源、环境三者严重失衡,同时又受到社会、经济、历史等方面的制约,为贫困地区的发展和新阶段的扶贫开发带来了前所未有压力。文章以空间贫困及其相关理论为基础,以原州区为研究对象,以行政村为基本单元,从自然、社会和经济三个方面,构建出一个包含有30个指标的空间贫困因素指标体系,选取2010到2013年四年的动态数据。首先采用Pearson相关分析进行致贫因素和消贫因素的区分,接着利用OLS回归分析对各因素对贫困的影响程度进行量化,并且结合GIS和BP神经网络,对原州区各地理资本指数进行模拟分析,计算出各空间贫困指数,并且利用GIS的可视化特点在图上展示出其空间分布,揭示原州区空间贫困格局及其分异机制,为原州区的扶贫开发提供科学可靠的理论依据,最终得到如下结论： (1)经过Pearson相关分析以及OLS回归分析,得出如下结论： Pearson相关分析得出,自然环境是影响原州区贫困的最主要因素,与此同时,社会环境加剧了这种贫困的发生；经济环境则是缓解和消除区域贫困的主要因素,结合OLS回归估计分析,进一步量化每个因素对贫困的影响度。 (2)通过GIS的空间表达和基于BP的空间模拟得出如下结果：自然致贫指数较高的村子主要分布在东北部和北部地区,社会致贫指数较大的村子主要分布在西南部,经济消贫指数没有明显的分布特征,但总体呈上升趋势。结合之前的分析和研究,最后提出符合原州区区域特色的扶贫对策及建议： (1)在自然致贫指数高的地区要加强环境保护和水土流失治理,同时要加强生态环境建设和污染物的治理,以及基本农田和饮水安全的建设。 (2)在社会环境调控中,实施生态移民扶贫工程,对于社会致贫指数较高的地区,要提高基础教育的水平,大力培养贫困人口的就业技能;同时也要加快医疗事业的发展和公共信息文化信息以及交通网络的建设。 (3)原州区作为宁夏南部重点开发区,要切实实施区域中心城市暨大县城战略。对于经济消贫指数较低的地区,要整体加强科技培训和推广的力度,并发展农业优势特色产业。
[Abstract]:Poverty is a global problem puzzling human development, and it is also one of the serious challenges for developing countries to realize sustainable development. However, the development of poverty-stricken areas is an important and urgent problem in the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way in our country at the present stage. The Ningxia Hui Autonomous region is a western ethnic minority autonomous region, and the poverty-stricken areas are mainly distributed in the central arid zone and the southern mountainous areas (that is, Ningxia Liupanshan concentrated and connected with special difficulties). The region is ecologically fragile, the land is barren, the perennial drought is low, and there is little rain. The frequent natural disasters, serious soil and water loss, and the imbalance of population, resources and environment, which are restricted by social, economic and historical aspects, have brought unprecedented pressure to the development of poverty-stricken areas and the development of poverty alleviation in the new stage. Based on spatial poverty and its related theories, taking Yuanzhou district as the research object and administrative village as the basic unit, this paper constructs an index system of spatial poverty factors including 30 indicators from the three aspects of nature, society and economy. The dynamic data of four years from 2010 to 2013 were selected. Firstly, Pearson correlation analysis was used to distinguish the poverty factors from the anti-poverty factors, and then the degree of influence of each factor on poverty was quantified by OLS regression analysis, and combined with GIS and BP neural network. Based on the simulation and analysis of the capital index in various parts of Yuanzhou district, the spatial poverty index is calculated, and the spatial distribution of the spatial poverty index is shown by using the visualization characteristics of GIS, which reveals the spatial poverty pattern and its differentiation mechanism in Yuanzhou district. To provide a scientific and reliable theoretical basis for poverty alleviation and development in Yuanzhou District, and finally get the following conclusions:. 1) by Pearson correlation analysis and OLS regression analysis, the conclusions are as follows:. Pearson correlation analysis shows that the natural environment is the most important factor affecting poverty in Yuanzhou district, and at the same time, the social environment exacerbates the occurrence of poverty, while the economic environment is the main factor to alleviate and eliminate regional poverty. Combined with OLS regression analysis, the impact of each factor on poverty is further quantified. 2) through the spatial expression of GIS and the spatial simulation based on BP, the following results are obtained:. The villages with higher natural poverty index are mainly distributed in the northeast and northern regions, while the villages with higher social poverty index are mainly distributed in the southwest. The economic poverty eradication index has no obvious distribution characteristics, but the overall trend is on the rise. Combining with the previous analysis and research, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for poverty alleviation in accordance with the regional characteristics of Yuanzhou District. 1) in areas with high natural poverty index, environmental protection and soil erosion control should be strengthened, and ecological environment construction and pollutant management, as well as the construction of basic farmland and drinking water safety should be strengthened. 2) in the social environment regulation and control, the implementation of the ecological migration poverty alleviation project, for areas with high social poverty index, it is necessary to improve the level of basic education, and vigorously develop the poor people's employment skills; At the same time, it is necessary to speed up the development of medical services and the construction of public information, cultural information and transportation networks. 3) as the key development zone of southern Ningxia, Yuanzhou district should implement the strategy of regional central city and big county city. For the region with low economic poverty eradication index, it is necessary to strengthen the training and popularization of science and technology as a whole, and to develop agricultural advantages and characteristic industries.
【学位授予单位】：宁夏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP183;F126

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