经济周期协同性、全球经济失衡调整与东亚贸易模式转变

发布时间：2018-02-15 02:44

本文关键词： 全球经济失衡东亚贸易模式经济周期 DCC-MGARCH模型　出处：《财经科学》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：亚洲金融危机的发生对东亚区域生产网络和贸易模式产生了冲击影响,使得中国成为东亚地区的出口平台,形成了新的贸易模式。这一以垂直专业化分工为基础的东亚贸易模式,推动了全球经济失衡的愈演愈烈,特别是中国与美国之间形成了巨额的贸易与金融失衡。2008年发生的全球金融危机使得全球经济失衡出现调整。本文运用DCC-MARCH模型,考察了世界主要经济体经济周期、全球经济失衡及以三角贸易为核心的东亚贸易模式之间的静态和动态协同性变化。结论显示,东亚区域内的生产网络使得区域内主要经济体之间经济周期协同性显著大于区域外经济体,全球金融危机的发生推动了东亚贸易模式的转变,但这一转变短期内看仍是区域内的调整即中国和东盟在区域内分工地位的转换,由此推动了全球经济失衡的调整,且这一调整仍在持续。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the Asian financial crisis has impact on regional production networks and trade patterns, the China become East Asia export platform, formed a new trade pattern. The vertical specialization based East Asian trade pattern, promote global economic imbalances intensified, especially between Chinese and the United States formed trade and financial imbalances.2008 huge happened in the global financial crisis makes the global economic imbalance adjustment. This paper uses DCC-MARCH model to study the economic cycle, the world's major economies, cooperation between the changes of global economic imbalance and the triangle trade as the core of the East Asian trade pattern of static and dynamic. The conclusion shows that in the East Asia region the coordination of the production network was significantly greater than that outside the region economy cycle between the main economic region, the global financial crisis pushed It has moved the transformation of East Asian trade mode. But in the short run, this transformation is still the adjustment in the region, that is, the transformation of the division of labor between China and ASEAN in the region, thus promoting the adjustment of the global economic imbalance, and this adjustment is still continuing.

【作者单位】：吉林大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“全球经济失衡的调整机制及其对中国经济的影响研究”(17CGJ028)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F113;F742

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