安倍经济学对解决日本经济国际化困境的有效性分析

发布时间：2018-03-01 17:31

本文关键词： 安倍经济学国际化困境有效性分析实证检验　出处：《山东师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1990年以来,日本经济持续被通货紧缩、消费低迷、增长乏力所笼罩,为了应对上述经济颓势,日本首相安倍晋三于2013年推出“老三支箭”政策,即相对宽松的货币政策、灵活多变的财政政策以及有力的结构改革。政策实施初期效果明显,但随着改革政策的进一步推行,暴露出一系列的弊端,政策效果也大打折扣。为了促进结构性改革的深化,促进经济发展,支持儿童的发展培育,改善社会保障,2015年又推出“新三支箭”政策。本文通过实证检验和理论分析相结合的方法来研究安倍经济学对解决日本经济国际化困境的有效性,最后得出结论并且提出展望。本文首先对安倍经济学“新、老三支箭”政策做了简要的概述,阐述了它的内容和理论基础。“老三支箭”包括灵活积极的财政政策、长远的经济成长战略和宽松的货币政策,“新三支箭”政策包括改善社会保障、支持培育儿童和促进经济发展三个方面。财政政策的理论基础是凯恩斯的财政观点,货币政策的理论基础是滨田宏一的通货膨胀思想,长远经济增长战略的理论基础是改革派的新经济自由主义反政府干预的观点。其次对经济国际化困境做出了界定,并详尽分析了日本当前在经济国际化方面的困境,具体包括:日元的国际化困境,日本市场经济模式的困境,财政货币政策的困境,金融体系的再次国际化困境,产业国际化的困境,少子、老龄化的人口困境。再次运用VAR模型对安倍经济学“新、老三支箭”政策对解决日本面临的经济国际化困境的有效性进行了实证检验。由于日本面临的经济国际化困境复杂,安倍经济学的政策也涵盖多个方面,为了研究的深入性,本文选取安倍经济学中量化宽松的货币政策作为代表,运用VAR计量模型对量化宽松货币政策在解决经济国际化困境方面的有效性进行了着重的实证分析。分析表明,安倍经济学在解决日本经济国际化困境方面有一定的有效性,量化宽松政策刺激了GDP、CPI、EXP的增加,促进了经济的发展,激发了市场活力,为经济国际化困境的解决提供了物质基础与动力。之后,运用理论分析来研究安倍经济学其他政策对解决日本经济国际化困境的有效性。分析表明,安倍经济学对解决日本经济国际化困境有一定的有效性,积极的财政政策刺激了日本经济的复兴,结构性改革提高了日本女性的就业率,“新三支箭”政策触及了日本少子、老龄化的根本问题,激发了社会活力。但是安倍经济学在解决日本经济国际化困境的过程中也暴露出一些不足,具体体现在:安倍经济政策催生的日元贬值难以持续,为了贬值不惜以邻为壑,日元在国际间流通受阻;过度干预经济,没有突破由政府主导的市场经济模式;积极的财政政策、货币政策推高了日本债务,使得债务风险增大,货币政策传导机制受阻;日本金融体系国际化面临更大的资本约束,海外投资者盲目投资股市,加剧金融风险;以政府为导向的市场经济模式极大地限制了日本产业的发展,产业发展模式总体方向正确但实施效果并不理想,经济增长乏力,竞争力不足,创新不够;少子、老龄化问题缺乏有效解决方案,“女性经济学”使更多女性远离家庭,加剧少子化困境。最后得出结论并提出展望,安倍经济学短期效果显著但中长期效果并不明显,从目前来看,仅仅依靠安倍经济学难以使日本走出经济国际化困境,而且给日本带来了很多次生的危害。但不可否认,安倍内阁所采取的刺激经济的方式是正确的,也是符合日本国情的,而且,安倍经济学还在不断的调整中,根据政策实施过程中出现的问题,安倍政府也在积极寻求方法解决,通过这样不断摸索的改革,日本经济国际化困境的解决指日可待。
[Abstract]:Since 1990, the Japanese economy continues to be deflation, consumer downturn, weak growth shrouded, in order to deal with the economic downturn, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in 2013 launched the "third arrow" policy, which is a relatively loose monetary policy, flexible fiscal policies and strong structural reforms. The initial implementation of policy effect is obvious, but with the further the implementation of the reform policy, exposed a series of defects, the policy effect is greatly reduced. In order to promote the deepening of structural reform, promoting economic development, foster the development of children's support, improve social security, launched in 2015 and the "new three arrow" policy. Through the combined method of empirical research and theoretical analysis to the study of Andouble economics is effective for the Japanese economy internationalization dilemma, finally draws the conclusion and puts forward the prospect. Firstly, Andouble "new economic school, third Arrow "policy to do a brief overview, discusses its content and theoretical basis. The" three arrows "includes a flexible active fiscal policy, the long-term economic growth strategy and loose monetary policy," the new three arrow "policies including the improvement of social security, support and foster children and promote the three aspects of economic development. The basic theory of fiscal policy is Keynes's financial point of view, the theoretical basis of monetary policy is the theoretical basis of Hamada Hiroshii thought inflation, long-term economic growth strategy is a reformist New Economic Liberalism anti government intervention point. Secondly the definition of economic internationalization dilemma made, and a detailed analysis of the current difficulties in the economic internationalization the Japanese yen internationalization includes: dilemma, mode of economy of market of Japan's plight, fiscal and monetary policy dilemma, dilemma again international financial system, production The internationalization of the plight of minority population, the aging of the dilemma again. A VAR model based on the "new Andouble economics, third arrow" policy on the effectiveness of solving the dilemma of economic internationalization facing Japan empirically. Because of the economic internationalization dilemma faced by Japan complex, Andouble's economics policy also covers many aspects, in order to further study, this paper selects the quantitative easing monetary policy Andouble in economics as a representative, effective use of VAR econometric model of quantitative easing monetary policy in resolving international economic plight is analyzed emphatically. The empirical analysis shows that the Andouble economics is effective in solving the dilemma of the Japanese economy internationalization, quantitative easing policy to stimulate the GDP, CPI, EXP increase, promote economic development, stimulate the vitality of the market, for solving the dilemma of economic internationalization provides Based on quality and power. After that, Andouble to study economics other policy is effective for the Japanese economy internationalization dilemma by theoretical analysis. The analysis shows that the Andouble economics is effective to solve the dilemma of Japan economic internationalization, the proactive fiscal policy to stimulate the economy revival, structural reforms to improve the Japanese women's employment rate, "the new three arrow" policy hit Japan's low birthrate, the fundamental problem of aging, stimulate the vitality of society. But Andouble economics in the process of solving the plight of the Japanese economy internationalization also exposes some shortcomings, embodied in: Andouble economic policy has continued to decline to the depreciation of the yen, at the expense of circulation blocked in the international yen; excessive intervention in the economy, there is no breakthrough market economy mode dominated by the government; the positive fiscal policy, monetary policy to push up the day This debt, the debt risk increases, the monetary policy transmission mechanism is blocked; the internationalization of Japanese financial system faces greater capital constraints, overseas investors blindly invest in stocks, exacerbating the financial risk; the government oriented market economy mode has greatly restricted the development of Japanese industry, the overall direction of industrial development model is correct but the effect is not ideal. Weak economic growth, lack of competitiveness, innovation is not enough; less, the lack of effective solutions to the problem of aging, "female economics" to get more women away from home, increasing birthrate dilemma. Finally draws the conclusion and put forward the prospects, short-term effect is significant but the Andouble economics long-term effect is not obvious, from the current point of view, relying solely on Andouble economics it is difficult to make Japan out of the economic internationalization dilemma, but Japan has brought a lot of secondary harm. But it cannot be denied that Andouble's cabinet. The way to stimulate the economy is correct, but in line with the national conditions of Japan, and Andouble economics is in constant adjustment, according to the problems in the process of policy implementation, the Andouble administration is also actively seeking solutions, through the reform of this trial, to solve the dilemma of economic internationalization point the day and await for it.

【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F131.3

【参考文献】