中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的技术溢出效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 19:14

本文关键词： “一带一路”战略对外直接投资技术溢出效应索洛残差法　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”战略作为中国绘制的经济发展“新蓝图”,它的提出契合了沿线国家共同发展的目标,对实现共同繁荣意义深远。作为当前全球经济的热点,“一带一路”战略也面临着一些问题。中国对外直接投资是否给“一带一路”沿线国家带来了福利?回答这一问题不仅有助于为中国企业“走出去”营造良好的环境,而且可以更好地指导中国对外直接投资实践。为此,本文首先分析了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的现状;其次利用索洛残差法测算了沿线国家的全要素生产率;最后,搜集和整理了 2005年-2014年中国与“一带一路”沿线46个国家的数据,在此基础上进行中国对沿线国家直接投资技术溢出效应的实证研究。本文利用面板数据构建了固定效应模型和随机效应模型,从三个部分展开实证研究。第一部分为中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资技术溢出效应的整体分析;第二部分为中国对“一带”、“一路”、“交汇区”以及“东南亚”、“南亚”等细分区域直接投资技术溢出效应的对比分析;第三部分为中国对沿线“发展中经济体”、“发达经济体”和“转型经济体”直接投资技术溢出效应的对比分析。基于以上研究工作,本文得出以下结论:首先,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资存在短期负向技术溢出效应,但长期正向技术溢出效应更显著;其次,中国对“一路”和“一带”区域直接投资存在短期负向技术溢出效应和明显的长期正向技术溢出效应,其中,中国对“东南亚”和“南亚”区域直接投资短期负向技术溢出效应和长期正向技术溢出效应均表现明显。中国对“交汇区”直接投资的短期正向技术溢出效应和长期负向技术溢出效应不显著,其中,中国对“中东欧”区域直接投资的技术溢出效应表现不显著,而中国对“西亚北非”区域直接投资存在短期正向技术溢出效应和明显的长期负向技术溢出效应;最后,中国对沿线“发展中经济体”和“转型经济体”直接投资存在显著的短期负向技术溢出效应和长期正向技术溢出效应,而对沿线“发达经济体”的技术溢出效应不显著。针对上述结论,本文提出了如下相关政策建议:加强对舆论的引导和中国对外直接投资的正面宣传,增进东道国的认同及互信;中国对外直接投资应“苦练内功”,不断提升自身的竞争实力和投资效率;延伸产业链,提高中国对外直接投资的辐射能力;加强基础设施建设,改善沿线国家的投资环境。通过中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的技术溢出效应研究,不仅有利于重塑中国对外直接投资形象、增进双方认同互信,而且有助于指导中国对沿线国家的直接投资实践。
[Abstract]:"The Belt and Road" strategy as China drawing economic development "blueprint", it is proposed to fit the countries along the common development goals, to achieve common prosperity and far-reaching significance. As a hotspot of the global economy, "Belt and Road Initiative" strategy is also facing some problems. China's foreign direct investment will bring welfare to the "The Belt and Road along the country? To answer this question, not only helps to China enterprises to" go out "to create a good environment, but also can better guide the Chinese foreign direct investment practice. Therefore, this paper analyzed the current situation of direct investment to" Chinese Belt and Road Initiative along the country; secondly estimates the total productivity the elements along the country's using Solow residual method; finally, collecting and collating 2005 -2014 Chinese along with "The Belt and Road" data of 46 countries, on the basis of Chinese An empirical study on technology spillover effect of investment along the country directly. This paper constructs the fixed effect model and random effect model with panel data, empirical research is carried out from three parts. The first part is the analysis of the overall Chinese of The Belt and Road along the country's direct investment spillover effect; the second part is the "area", Chinese "all the way", "intersection" and "Southeast", "comparative analysis of South Asia and sub regional FDI technology spillover effect; the third part is China along the line of" developing economies "," comparative analysis of developed economies "and" transition economies "FDI Technology spillover effect. Based on the research work, this paper draws the following conclusions: first, the" Chinese Belt and Road Initiative along the country's direct investment to the short-term negative effects of technology spillover, but the long-term positive spillover effect Should be more significant; secondly, China of "one road" and "area" regional direct investment are short-term negative technology spillover effect and obvious long-term positive spillover effect, which China in Southeast Asia and South Asia regional direct investment short-term negative spillover effects and long-term positive spillover effect is obvious short term positive spillover effect on direct investment China "intersection zone" and the long term negative spillover effect is not significant, the technology spillover effects of direct investment China "in Eastern Europe" area is not significant, while the China of West Asia and North Africa regional direct investment has a short-term positive spillover effect and obvious long-term to the negative effect of technology spillover; finally, Chinese along the line of "developing economies" and "transition economies" direct investment have significant short-term negative spillover effect should be And long-term positive spillover effect, but no significant technology spillover effect on the "developed economies". According to the above conclusion, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: strengthening the guidance of public opinion and China foreign direct investment positive propaganda, increase the host country's identity and trust; Chinese foreign direct investment should be hard skills ", and continuously improve the competitiveness and efficiency of investment; extend the industrial chain, improve the ability of radiation China foreign direct investment; strengthen infrastructure construction, improve along the country's investment environment. Through the technology spillover effect of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative along the country's direct investment research, not only conducive to reshape the image of China foreign direct investment identity, enhance mutual trust, but also helps to guide the China along the country's direct investment practice.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125

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