四万亿投资对经济的影响

发布时间：2018-03-02 00:05

  本文关键词： 四万亿投资 政府投资 挤出效应　出处：《广西师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年9月前,美国的金融机构连接不断的暴出巨额亏损,同时经营状况出现危机由于次级按揭贷款风险加大,穆迪和标准普尔公司于2007年7月下调了一千多只按揭贷款抵押债权的评级,成为次贷危机迅速蔓延的导火线。同时美国经济减速明显,相关经济体经济增长受到严重影响2007年第四季度美国的经济活动明显减速,制造业、房地产业全面疲软,就业率和消费迅速下降。金融市场的剧烈动荡是金融危机的导火索,于是2008年9月份15日在美国爆发了金融危机,之后蔓延到全世界。 2008年美国次贷危机引发全球性金融危机后,各个政府纷纷针对本国情况进行了政策性干预,其中我国政府为了稳定经济在2008年底提出了四万亿刺激经济投资计划,并计划在先后两年内将四万亿自己全部实施到位。时至今日已四年时间过去,各项投资计划已经实施完成或者有些延后的正在实施中,钱花出去了我们更要及时总结其花的效果如何及会为今后经济发展带来什么样的影响,所以为了明确认识四万亿刺激经济投资计划的效果,包括积极的效果和存在的问题的选择了该论题。四万亿刺激经济投资计划的影响是多方面的、复杂性的,为了能使研究深入化特选取了GDP、就业以及相关产业等指标作为其影响对象。通过对危机发生后对政府的投资行为的评估,运用基于价值的政府投资过程控制的理论、方法和框架,从而希望提出基于产业调整等方面相应的政策性建议。 随着我国市场化改革的不断深入发展,金融体系与世界的接轨,在这次金融危机中的影响也是较为严重的。时至今日,金融危机过后的各种副作用依旧存在。当时受到影响的先是出口,出口已经作为我国经济三驾马车中重要的一个,其影响直接造成国内大面积企业接二连三的倒闭,于是大量工人和以出口为主的产业破产,在经过了三次出口退税的鼓励政策后,出口造成的影响暂时得到缓解,随后的4万亿投资计划中,会将产业调整作为经济发展的方向的目标。 论文首先给出了研究的问题及研究的背景、目的以及现实的意义,之后是研究了四万亿刺激经济投资计划所依托的基本理论即凯恩斯的国家干预理论。其次,借助有关文献资料,研究了发达国家和发展中国家应对金融危机采取的措施；然后回顾下我们怎么应对金融危机,简单的描述了四万亿投资下的主要成效、以及过程中的主要问题。在借鉴国内外使用各种政策的基础上,用表格数据描述性分析研究了四万亿刺激经济投资计划对我国各项经济数据的影响。通过对四万亿刺激经济投资计划出台过程的回顾,提出四万亿发展的现状,包括积极的成效和存在的突出问题。通过分析数据,可以看到四万亿投资不一定都是促进和好的方面,里面其实也有很多不足和需要改进的地方。
[Abstract]:Before September 2008, the connection of financial institutions in the United States continue to burst out of the huge losses, while operating conditions due to the subprime mortgage crisis risk, Moodie and Pool Co cut more than 1000 standard mortgage loans mortgage debt rating in July 2007, as the subprime crisis spread rapidly fuse. While the U.S. economy slowed down significantly, economy growth is serious impact on economic activity in the United States in 2007 fourth quarter obvious slowdown, manufacturing industry, real estate industry overall weakness, employment and consumption decreased rapidly. The financial market turmoil is the financial crisis in 2008, and in September 15 in the United States after the financial crisis spread to the whole world.
In 2008 the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial crisis, governments have made for their policy intervention, which the Chinese government in order to stabilize the economy at the end of 2008 proposed four trillion stimulus investment plans, and plans to have two years will be four trillion all their place. Today has over the past four years, the investment plan have completed or are being implemented in some delay, money out we should how to summarize the effect and the flowers will bring what kind of impact for the future economic development, so a clear understanding of the effect of four trillion economic stimulus investment plans, including positive effects and existing problems of the choice of the topic. Effect of four trillion economic stimulus investment plan is various, complex, in order to make in-depth study of selected GDP, employment and Indicators such as customs and related industries are taken as the object of their impact. After evaluating the government's investment behavior after the crisis, we apply the theory, method and framework of value based government investment process control, and hope to put forward corresponding policy recommendations based on industrial adjustment.
With the continuous deepening of China's market-oriented reform of the financial system, in line with the rest of the world, in this financial crisis is more serious. Today, a variety of side effects after the financial crisis still exists. At that time, affected by the first export, exports have been made for our country economy in the important three carriages a, its direct impact caused by domestic large enterprises closed down one after another, so a large number of workers and export-oriented industry bankruptcy, after three times the export tax rebate policy to encourage exports, causing temporarily eased, then the 4 trillion investment plan, will adjust the industry as the direction of economic development. The target.
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