欧元区货币政策对我国GDP及对外贸易的波动效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 09:21

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：对外贸易　出处：《华侨大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：欧元区成立已有15年，如今已经是一个由18个国家组成的大型经济体，也是世界上一体化程度最高的经济组织。它对世界经济及世界贸易的影响不言而喻，特别是2009年欧洲主权债务危机爆发后，欧元区的危机迅速蔓延至全球，给全球经济带来了巨大的损失。欧元区所采取的应对主权债务危机的政策也备受世界关注。而欧洲央行制定货币政策作为其调节经济运行的重要手段，在欧元区成立至今对欧元区乃至包括中国在内的世界各国的经济及贸易都产生深远的影响，这就是一国货币政策的溢出效应。学术上研究一个经济体所制定的货币政策对其他经济体的溢出效应一般有两种理论模型，第一种是M-F即蒙代尔弗莱明模型，另一种是NOEM模型即新开放条件下的宏观经济模型。我国与欧元区是世界上重要的经济体或组织，政策的溢出效应导致欧元区的货币政策对中国的对外贸易和实体经济产生了较大的影响。因此为了实证研究该影响，，本文利用结构向量自回归SVAR模型，结合计量经济学软件Eviews7.0，采用1999年1季度至2013年4季度的欧元区及中国的相关数据实证分析并研究了欧元区货币政策在两种不同的传导渠道-金融市场传导渠道和国际贸易传导渠道下对我国国内生产总值及对外贸易的波动性影响，通过对实证研究所得到的脉冲响应函数进行分析其波动效应，结果表明欧元区货币政策的溢出效应在两种传导渠道下是并重的。而实证的结果表明新开放宏观经济模型更适合来分析欧元区货币政策冲击对中国产出及对外贸易的影响。
[Abstract]:The euro zone, which has been around for 15 years, is now a large economy of 18 countries and the most integrated economic organization in the world. Its impact on the world economy and world trade is self-evident. In particular, after the European sovereign debt crisis broke out in 2009, the crisis in the euro zone quickly spread to the world. The euro zone's response to the sovereign debt crisis has also attracted world attention. The European Central Bank has set monetary policy as an important means of regulating its economic performance. Since the inception of the euro zone, it has had a profound impact on the economies and trade of the euro zone and even the rest of the world, including China, which is the spillover effect of a country's monetary policy. There are generally two theoretical models for the academic study of spillover effects of monetary policies made by one economy on other economies. The first is M-F, or Mondale Fleming model. The other is the NOEM model, the macroeconomic model under the new opening conditions. China and the euro zone are important economies or organizations in the world. The spillover effect of the policy causes the monetary policy of the euro zone to have a great impact on China's foreign trade and real economy. Therefore, in order to study this effect empirically, this paper uses the structural vector autoregressive SVAR model. Based on the econometrics software Eviews7.0, this paper empirically analyzes and studies the monetary policy of the euro zone in two different transmission channels, the financial market transmission channel and the financial market transmission channel, using the relevant data from the first quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2013 in the euro area and China. The impact of international trade transmission channels on China's GDP and foreign trade volatility, Through the analysis of the pulse-response function obtained from the empirical research, the wave effect is analyzed. The results show that the spillover effect of monetary policy in the euro zone is equally important in two transmission channels, while the empirical results show that the new open macroeconomic model is more suitable to analyze the impact of monetary policy shocks on China's output and foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F825;F124;F752

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