我国财政政策对经济增长的作用机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 21:32

本文选题：财政政策　切入点：经济增长　出处：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文从理论推导和实证研究两种角度就财政政策对经济增长的作用机制进行了阐述和分析。在理论方面主要引用了瓦格纳法则、凯恩斯学派经济增长理论与财政政策、内生增长理论中的财政政策和外生增长理论中的财政政策，对财政政策与经济增长相互作用关系进行了偏重定性的推导。继而又借助VAR模型和MS-AR模型，对GDP、财政支出、CPI和M2从1996年第一季度到2013年第四季度的季度同比增长率数据进行实证研究。首先，对GDP和财政支出的增长进行了数据描述并分析了其发展规律和发展趋势。然后，验证了所选择的变量是否具备构建VAR模型的条件，在符合构可能性后，，通过建立VAR模型进行了脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解研究和格兰杰因果检验以剖析变量之间的相互作用关系，重点考察了财政支出对经济增长的作用机制。而后，根据MS-AR模型划分出了高波动区制和低波动区制，探讨了不同区制下财政政策的有效性。最后在两区制下分别进行最小二乘回归来观测财政支出对经济增长的影响系数，并结合我国实际情况探讨了财政政策对经济增长的作用机制。从中得出“瓦格纳法则”在我国的是成立的，即当国民收入增长时，财政支出也会随之增长；短期内，积极的财政政策可以促进经济增长；而长期的积极财政政策刺激效果不明显，还会导致一定程度上的通货膨胀；在我国经济增长波动率较高的阶段适合使用积极的财政政策，但要注意不宜长期使用，在经济增长波动率较低的阶段应使用稳健性财政政策等结论。建议在财政政策实施过程中要保持政府支出与国民生产总值在一定的比例上，掌握好扩张性和稳健性财政政策之间转化的时机，必要时相配合以货币政策来熨平财政政策的负面效应。同时应该注意财政收支的多寡并不能完整的代表财政政策，要对财政政策进行全方位多角度的剖析，预算外和体制外收支最好也能被纳入考虑范畴。还可以辅助以减轻税负、加强推动税制的改革的力度、调整转移支付方向、改善政府财政支出结构、提高中低收入消费者的可支配收入等手段来完善我国财政政策体系，保持我国经济平稳增长。
[Abstract]:This paper expounds and analyzes the mechanism of fiscal policy acting on economic growth from two angles of theoretical derivation and empirical research. In theory, it mainly cites Wagner's law, Keynesian economic growth theory and fiscal policy. The fiscal policy in the endogenous growth theory and the fiscal policy in the exogenous growth theory deduce the relationship between the fiscal policy and the economic growth, and then with the help of the VAR model and the MS-AR model, the relationship between the fiscal policy and the economic growth is analyzed. This paper makes an empirical study on the quarterly year-on-year growth rate of GDP, fiscal expenditure CPI and M2 from in the first quarter of 1996 to in the fourth quarter of 2013. First of all, This paper describes the growth of GDP and fiscal expenditure and analyzes its development law and trend. Then, it verifies whether the selected variables have the conditions to construct the VAR model, and after the possibility of conformance, By establishing the VAR model, the impulse response function analysis, variance decomposition and Granger causality test are carried out to analyze the interaction between variables, and the mechanism of fiscal expenditure on economic growth is investigated. According to the MS-AR model, the high volatility zone system and the low fluctuation zone system are divided, and the effectiveness of the fiscal policy under the different region system is discussed. Finally, the least square regression is carried out to observe the influence coefficient of the fiscal expenditure on the economic growth under the two-region system. Combined with the actual situation in China, this paper discusses the mechanism of fiscal policy on economic growth. It is concluded that "Wagner's rule" is established in our country, that is, when national income increases, fiscal expenditure will also increase, in the short term, positive fiscal policies can promote economic growth. But the long-term positive fiscal policy stimulus effect is not obvious, will also cause the certain degree of inflation; in our country economic growth fluctuation rate high stage suitable to use the positive fiscal policy, but should pay attention not to use in the long term. In the stage of low fluctuation rate of economic growth, we should use prudent fiscal policy and other conclusions. It is suggested that in the process of implementing the fiscal policy, we should maintain a certain proportion of government expenditure and gross national product, and grasp the opportunity to transform between expansionary and prudent fiscal policies. When necessary, we should coordinate with monetary policy to iron out the negative effects of fiscal policy. At the same time, we should pay attention to the amount of fiscal revenues and expenditures that do not fully represent fiscal policy. We should carry out a comprehensive and multi-angle analysis of fiscal policy. Extra-budgetary and out-of-system revenues and expenditures are also best taken into account. They can also be supplemented to reduce the tax burden, strengthen the reform of the tax system, adjust the direction of transfer payments, and improve the structure of the government's fiscal expenditure. Improve the disposable income of middle and low income consumers to improve our fiscal policy system and maintain the steady growth of our economy.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812;F124

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