进口商品结构对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 22:18

本文选题：进口　切入点：贸易结构　出处：《江西财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：重商主义至今,各国纷纷鼓励出口。在政策上,大多数国家尤其是发展中国家积极采取出口导向型政策、进口替代型政策、保护幼稚工业政策等政策措施,把出口看作是拉动国家经济增长的主要动力。在理论上国内外大量学者从不同的角度对出口及其与经济增长的关系进行了探讨。出口曾为各国经济的快速发展提供了重要动力和保障。然而,随着不少国家国内资源的消耗、人口红利的消失、生产成本的上升、环境的恶化等问题的出现,再一味地追求扩大出口而忽略进口的话,经济的发展将会进入“瓶颈”状态。近年来,虽然有部分国家也开始关注进口,但仅把进口看作是经济发展的附属品,对进口贸易商品的结构问题很少关注,进口的各种商品并没有发挥充分的作用。对进口结构的调整基本上是“适应性”的,没有具体的理论作为指导。出口是一国的需求管理手段,进口是一国的供给管理手段,进口同出口一样能够促进经济的增长。进口结构的调整和优化也将有利于经济的进一步增长。因此,本文围绕着进口贸易商品结构对经济增长的影响问题,基于50个国家18年的数据实证了二者之间的关系。文章一共有六个部分。第一部分:介绍了本文的研究背景和研究意义;从理论研究、传导机制和实证研究三个方面综述了进口商品与经济增长的相关文献;表明了本文的研究内容、方法、可能创新与不足之处。第二部分:初步分析了全球进口商品的现状及变动趋势、全球经济增长的现状及变动趋势、世界进口贸易与经济增长之间的相互变动趋势,为下文建立起进口商品结构与经济增长之间的理论模型提供依据。第三部分:从经济理论的角度表明进口商品通过技术溢出、资本积累和产业升级三种方式促进经济的增长;并建立了进口商品结构与经济增长之间的随机模型,推导出经济增长受到进口商品增长率以及增长率波动的影响。第四部分:对进口商品结构进行了划分,实证了进口商品各结构及其波动对经济增长的影响作用,结果表明,不同类型的商品的波动对经济的促进作用是各异的。第五部分:对中国进口商品结构与经济增长的关系进行了具体分析,指出中国应该鼓励初级品的进口,但应注意其增长速度,基本稳定中间品进口比例,适当扩大资本品和消费品的进口比例。并指出在经济最优化增长的前提下进口结构调整的方案是该种商品的成本份额等于其贡献率份额。第六部分:对本文所研究的理论和实证等方面进行了总结;在结论的基础上提出了政策性建议:注重进口、合理引导本国居民的消费和储蓄、优化本国的进口贸易商品结构、注重进口商品的质量和效率问题等。对于进口贸易商品结构与经济增长问题的研究既是对经济理论研究的扩展与深化也为现实的经济活动提供一定的理论参考。
[Abstract]:Mercantilism up to now, many countries have encouraged exports. In terms of policies, most countries, especially developing countries, have actively adopted export-oriented policies, import substitution policies, and policies to protect childish industries. In theory, a large number of scholars at home and abroad have discussed the relationship between export and economic growth from different angles. Export has been put forward for the rapid development of national economy. Provide important impetus and security. However, With the consumption of domestic resources in many countries, the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the rise in production costs, the deterioration of the environment, and so on, the blind pursuit of expanding exports and neglecting imports, Economic development will enter a "bottleneck" state. In recent years, although some countries have also begun to pay attention to imports, they only regard imports as an accessory to economic development, and pay little attention to the structural problems of imported trade commodities. The adjustment of the import structure is basically "adaptive", and there is no specific theory to guide it. Export is a country's means of demand management, and import is a country's means of supply management. The adjustment and optimization of import structure will also be beneficial to further economic growth. Therefore, this paper focuses on the impact of the structure of import trade commodities on economic growth. Based on 18 years' data of 50 countries, this paper demonstrates the relationship between the two. There are six parts in this paper. The first part: introduce the research background and significance of this paper, from the theoretical research, This paper summarizes the related literature on import commodities and economic growth from three aspects of conduction mechanism and empirical research, and shows the contents and methods of this paper. The second part: a preliminary analysis of the current situation and trends of global imports, the current situation and trends of global economic growth, and the interchanging trends between world import trade and economic growth. The third part: from the angle of economic theory, it shows that import commodities promote economic growth through three ways: technology spillover, capital accumulation and industrial upgrading. The stochastic model between the structure of import commodities and economic growth is established, and the influence of the growth rate of import commodities and the fluctuation of growth rate on economic growth is deduced. Part 4th: the structure of imported commodities is divided. The effects of various structures of imported commodities and their fluctuations on economic growth are demonstrated. The effects of the fluctuation of different types of commodities on the economy are different. Part 5th: this paper makes a concrete analysis of the relationship between the structure of China's imported commodities and its economic growth, and points out that China should encourage the import of primary commodities. However, we should pay attention to its growth rate and basically stabilize the proportion of imports of intermediate goods. Appropriate expansion of the import ratio of capital goods and consumer goods. It is pointed out that the scheme of import structural adjustment under the premise of optimal economic growth is that the cost share of this commodity is equal to its share of contribution rate. Part 6th: on the basis of this study. The theoretical and empirical aspects are summarized. On the basis of the conclusion, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions: pay attention to import, reasonably guide the consumption and savings of domestic residents, and optimize the structure of import trade commodities in our country. The research on the structure and economic growth of import trade commodities is not only the expansion and deepening of economic theory research, but also provides a certain theoretical reference for the actual economic activities.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.61;F124

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