日本ODI对产业结构升级的促进作用研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 07:41

本文选题：对外直接投资　切入点：产业结构　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：不同的国家有不同的产业结构,不同的产业结构通常反映着国家间不同的发展阶段,新的十年,我国旧有依靠投资和出口的发展模式难以持续,我国的产业结构中也出现了很多不合理的状况,如中游一些产业严重的产能过剩等,资源消耗过多、环境破坏对经济的负面影响也日益显著,李克强总理上台后多次强调了我国产业结构转型的重要性,同时当今中国与世界的经济联系越来越紧密,本文力图论证一国对外直接投资的大力发展可以促进国内的产业结构升级,从而我国未来的经济发展提供一个可以借鉴的视角,选取的分析案例为日本,因为日本的ODI远大于FDI,而在我国FDI却比ODI在国际经济中占据更重要的地位。本文首先分别介绍了产业结构和对外直接投资的相关理论,值得一提的,两者并非相伴相生的关系,一国的产业结构在没有对外直接投资的时候也会发生变化,而一国企业开展对外直接投资时考虑的更多还是自身利润,对外直接投资的理论分为针对发达国家的理论和针对发展中国家的理论,日本的情况更多的适用于前者,但在经济迅速飞升的过程中,也带有很多后者的特色,如日本的加工贸易采用“引进-模仿-出口”的方式。另外,本文还特意介绍了两位日本学者对产业结构和对外直接投资的理论研究,包括赤松要的雁行理论和小岛清的边际产业转移理论,这两位学者的理论基本勾勒了日本对外直接投资发展的现实状况和内在规律,然后本文仔细研究了对外直接投资和产业结构两者之间的互动,分析了一国对外直接投资对产业结构升级可能的作用机理,最后详细介绍了日本对外直接投资和产业结构调整的历程,并用数据做了实证检验。第二次世界大战后,日本国家沦为一片废墟,但仅用了十年时间,日本经济便恢复并超过战前水平,从1951年日本对印度的电缆技术合作作为日本对外直接投资的起点,进入七十年代后,日本的ODI数额迅速从不到10亿跃升到超过20亿,与时同时,日本国内的产业结构从60年代时的劳动密集型逐步向资本密集型过渡,到70年代后,又开始向技术密集型产业结构转型,进入90年代后,日本国内甚至出现了“产业结构空心化”的现象。本文用计量检验的方法证实了ODI和产业结构两者确实存在关系,ODI的发展在长期内会导致第一产业的比重不断下降,第三产业比重的不断上升,第二产业在长期内同样会不断下降,但变化幅度并不剧烈。我国在2012年第一产业占国民经济的比重为10.09%,这只是相当于日本60年代的水平,我们确信,历史会不断重复,因此日本的经验可以做为我国未来发展的借鉴,这也正是本文的写作初衷。
[Abstract]:Different countries have different industrial structures. Different industrial structures usually reflect different stages of development among countries. In the new decade, China's old development model, which relied on investment and exports, is unsustainable. There are also many unreasonable conditions in the industrial structure of our country, such as serious overcapacity in some industries in the middle reaches, excessive consumption of resources, and the negative impact of environmental damage on the economy. Since Premier Li Keqiang took office, he has repeatedly stressed the importance of the transformation of China's industrial structure. At the same time, today's economic ties between China and the world are getting closer and closer. This paper tries to prove that the development of a country's foreign direct investment can promote the upgrading of domestic industrial structure, thus the future economic development of our country can provide a reference angle of view. The selected case study is Japan. Because the ODI of Japan is much larger than that of the FDI, but the FDI occupies a more important position in the international economy than ODI in our country. Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant theories of industrial structure and foreign direct investment respectively. It is worth mentioning that the two are not concomitant relations. The industrial structure of a country will also change when there is no foreign direct investment, and when a country's enterprises carry out foreign direct investment, they are more concerned with their own profits. The theory of foreign direct investment is divided into theories aimed at developed countries and those directed at developing countries. The situation of Japan is more applicable to the former, but in the process of rapid economic growth, it also has many characteristics of the latter. For example, processing trade in Japan adopts the method of "import, imitation and export". In addition, this paper also introduces two Japanese scholars' theoretical research on industrial structure and foreign direct investment. Including the wild goose travel theory of Pinus koraiensis and the marginal industrial transfer theory of Kojima, the theories of these two scholars basically outline the reality and internal laws of the development of Japanese foreign direct investment. Then, this paper studies the interaction between FDI and industrial structure, and analyzes the possible mechanism of a country's FDI on industrial structure upgrading. Finally, the paper introduces in detail the course of Japan's foreign direct investment and industrial restructuring, and makes an empirical test with the data. After World War II, the Japanese country fell into ruins, but it only took ten years. Japan's economy recovered and exceeded its pre-war level. Since 1951, when Japan's cable technology cooperation with India was the starting point of Japan's foreign direct investment, in the 1970s, Japan's ODI rapidly jumped from less than 1 billion to more than 2 billion. At the same time, Japan's domestic industrial structure gradually transitioned from labor-intensive to capital-intensive in the 1960s, and then began to transition to technology-intensive industrial structure in the 1970s. After entering the 1990s, The phenomenon of "industrial structure hollowing" even appears in Japan. This paper proves by the method of econometric test that the development of ODI and industrial structure can cause the proportion of primary industry to decrease continuously in the long run. As the proportion of the tertiary industry continues to rise, the secondary industry will also continue to decline in the long run, but the change will not be drastic. The proportion of the primary industry in the national economy in China in 2012 was 10.09, which is only the same level as that of Japan in the 1960s. We are sure that, History will continue to repeat, so the Japanese experience can be used as a reference for the future development of our country, which is precisely the original intention of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F131.3

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