时间成本视角下RCEP对中国的经济影响——基于GTAP模型的测算

发布时间：2018-03-26 12:07

本文选题：区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)　切入点：时间成本　出处：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年11期

【摘要】：作为潜在的最大自由贸易区以及中国应对TPP(trans-pacific partnership)的一项重要策略,RCEP(regional comprehensive economic partnership)谈判的迅速推进使其成为国际社会的热点议题,然而目前却鲜有研究在量化贸易便利性的情况下测算RCEP对中国的经济影响.本文利用改进的GTAP(global trade analysis project)模型,以时间成本量化贸易便利性,分别模拟了RCEP成员之间"关税削减"情景和"关税削减+时间成本削减"情景.发现关税削减只能使中国的GDP增长0.14%.然而,如果将时间成本的削减也纳入考虑,在"冰山效应"的拉动下,中国的GDP将增长1.41%,达到关税削减情景的10倍之多.此外,中国的消费、贸易及大部分行业的生产也都会因此受益.这说明贸易时间的减少将会给中国带来巨大经济效益,也说明忽视时间成本的定量研究严重地低估了贸易自由化潜在的正面影响.
[Abstract]:As a potential largest free trade zone and an important strategy for China's response to TPP(trans-pacific, the rapid progress of the RCEP regional comprehensive economic partnership has made it a hot topic in the international community. However, little research has been done to measure the economic impact of RCEP on China under the condition of quantitative trade convenience. This paper uses the improved GTAP(global trade analysis project model to quantify trade convenience with time cost. The scenarios of "tariff reduction" and "tariff reduction time cost reduction" among RCEP members are simulated separately. It is found that tariff cuts can only increase China's GDP by 0.14%. However, if time cost reduction is also taken into account, Driven by the "iceberg effect," China's GDP will grow by 1.41 percent, 10 times the tariff cut scenario. This would benefit both trade and production in most industries. This shows that the reduction in trade time will bring great economic benefits to China and that the potential positive impact of trade liberalization is seriously underestimated by quantitative research that ignores time costs.
【作者单位】：中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院;中国科学院大学公共政策管理学院;中国农业大学经济管理学院;北京航空航天大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602500) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473242) 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大咨询项目(Y02015003)~~
【分类号】：F124

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