云南省经济增长与电力消费关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 14:31

本文选题：电力消费　切入点：GDP　出处：《昆明理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：云南省具有丰富的水力资源和面向南方的完善电网网络,是电力生产、消费和外调的大省,也是老挝向中国出口电力的重要通道。在此背景下,深入研究云南省电力消费与经济发展之间的关系,对云南省电力消费弹性系数的影响因素进行分析,探讨云南省产业结构对电力消费的影响,对云南省电力消费进行短、长期预测,根据研究结果对云南省电力发展提出可供参考的意见和建议,这对云南省电力产业的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。在第二章中,利用协整模型和Granger因果检验方法,对云南省经济增长与电力消费的关系进行了实证研究,研究结果表明：电力消费与经济增长之间存在着长期的均衡关系,电力消费是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因,电力消费和经济增长具有共同的变动趋势。在第三章中,利用多元回归模型,对云南省电力消费弹性系数的影响因素进行分析,分析结果表明：电力利用效率和第二产业占GDP的比重是影响电力弹性系数的主要因素,电力利用效率对电力弹性是正向影响,而第二产业的占比对电力弹性是负向影响,居民用电的影响不大。在第四章中,利用灰度理论,分析了产业结构与电力消费的关联度以及贡献度,分析结果表明：第二产业、第三产业、居民生活用电与电力消费之间存在着高度的关联性,第二产业的增加值、就业人数、固定资产投资对电力消费的贡献度最大,且明显比其他产业大。在第五章中,利用GM(1,1)模型对云南省电力消费进行短期预测,根据组合预测模型对云南省电力消费进行长期预测,预测结果表明：GM(1,1)模型比较适合进行短期预测,而组合模型对长期预测的效果较为理想。最后,根据研究结果提出了云南省电力产业可持续发展的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Yunnan province has abundant water resources and improve the network oriented to the south, is the electric power production, consumption and transfer of the province, but also an important channel to China. Laos export power under this background, the study of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic development in Yunnan Province, the influence factors of Yunnan Province's electricity consumption elasticity coefficient analysis on influence of industrial structure in Yunnan Province on the electricity consumption, electricity consumption of Yunnan province are short and long-term forecast, according to the research results and puts forward some advice and suggestions for the development of electric power in Yunnan Province, has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development of electric power industry in Yunnan province.
In the second chapter, by using the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test method, the relationship between the economic growth of Yunnan province and power consumption for the empirical research, the results show that: there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, electricity consumption is one-way Grainger the cause of economic growth, with the common trends of power consumption and the economic growth.
In the third chapter, using multiple regression model, the influence factors of Yunnan province electricity consumption elasticity coefficient is analyzed, analysis results show that the power efficiency and the proportion of the second industry in GDP are the main factors influencing the elastic coefficient of electricity, electricity use efficiency is a positive influence on the power play, and the second industries accounted for the ratio of power the elasticity is negative, the electricity is not affected.
In the fourth chapter, using the gray theory, analyzes the industrial structure and the power consumption of the correlation degree and contribution degree, analysis results show that: the second industry, the third industry, living high correlation between electricity consumption and electricity consumption, industrial added value of second, the number of employment, the contribution of investment in fixed assets of power consumption is the biggest, and significantly more than other industries.
In the fifth chapter, the use of GM (1,1) model to predict the power consumption in Yunnan Province, according to the combination forecasting model for long-term prediction of power consumption in Yunnan Province, the prediction results show that: GM (1,1) model is more suitable for short-term forecasting, and the combination of the ideal model to predict the long-term effect.
Finally, according to the results of the study, the countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable development of Yunnan electric power industry are put forward.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F426.61;F224

【参考文献】