中国可计算一般均衡微观模拟模型构建与应用

发布时间：2018-03-29 14:39

本文选题：可计算一般均衡微观模拟　切入点：经济增长　出处：《华中科技大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济取得了巨大的成就。但随着经济继续发展,中国经济也暴露出越来越多问题,如发展中不可持续问题依然突出,产业结构不合理,资源环境约束加剧,收入分配差距依然较大,居民收入增长速度过慢。这些问题都阻碍着我国全面建成小康社会,构建社会主义和谐社会。这要求政府在保证经济平稳增长的前提下注重资源保护、优化产业结构、减少贫困和缓解收入不平等,重点关注政策对资源利用、产业结构调整、居民收入福利、贫困状况的影响。本论文在国家自然科学基金委员会的资助下,对中国CGE-MS的建模技术以及其具体应用层面进行了研究。主要包含了两个方面：一是采用可计算一般均衡微观模拟序贯法建立一个凯恩斯结构中国CGE-MS模型；二是以政策的经济增长、产业结构调整及减贫等效应为研究指标,模拟分析了水价上涨、电力和天气补贴两类公共经济政策。从而为进一步完善、优化政策提供值得借鉴的量化结果,为转型期中国的政策选择提供参考分析。首先,本文在中国2007年IO表的基础上,结合各个统计年鉴和其他相关的数据,编制了2007年中国宏观SAM表,并在此基础上,继续对其进行细化得到了原始微观SAM,另外对这个原始SAM的缺陷进行了必要阐述,并指出其改进方法。在明确了现有更新方法的非对称性的缺陷以及对矩阵元素非负的限制后,本文基于信息理论提出了JSD类方法,并给予保号、误差控制的扩展,提供了整套的矩阵更新框架,并且在实证中严谨证明了JSD方法的优异性质。其次,本文分两步建立起来适用于中国的CGE-MS模型。第一步,在参考IFPRI的标准化模型基础上,建立起来一个凯恩斯结构的中国CGE模型并检验了模型的建正确性；然后对模型进行微观模拟的扩展,设定了随着复合商品价格改变而改变的内生贫困线,使得最后建立完成的CGE-MS模型能够基本优秀地完成对政策的模拟分析。从而完整的建构出中国CGE-MS模型,并且用GAMS软件实现了全部模型的代码,从结构定性、数学方程体系到程序实现,提供了一套完整的可扩展分析框架,为后续政策的模拟应用提供了准备,也为同类研究提供了参考。第三,在模型建立后,对水价上涨、电力和天然气补贴两类公共经济政策进行了模拟求解,基于模拟结果的研究分析得到了若干结论。对于水价上涨的模拟分析表明,水价上涨对经济增长、就业等宏观经济变量以及部门产出有一定的负面影响,并导致了整体物价水平的上升。而且受此影响,居民、企业及政府的收入都出现一定程度的下降,贫困发生率和贫困深度均略有增加,但却可以明显降低整个经济的单位GDP水耗,提高水资源的利用效率。对于取消电力和天然气补贴的模拟分析发现,在考虑外部成本的情况下,结果表明：取消电力和天然气补贴对真实GDP、进出口、就业等宏观经济变量以及部门产出产生了一定的负面影响,其中采掘业、重化工业等电力或天然气消耗较大产业产出下降十分明显：受此影响,居民和企业收入出现下降,由于补贴支出减少政府收入降低幅度相对较小,同时,贫困发生率和贫困深度有所增加,但却可以明显降低整个经济的单位GDP电力和天然气消耗,提高资源利用效率,同时使得产业结构合理化和高级化程度增强,产业结构得到优化升级。本文最后对CGE-MS建模技术研究和实证模拟两方面的结论进行了总结,指出了今后的发展方向,界定了当前研究的局限和不足,并对完善我国CGE-MS类研究提出了改进建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Chinese economy has made great achievements. But as the economy continues to develop, China economy also exposed more and more problems, such as unsustainable development problems are still outstanding, the unreasonable industrial structure, resource and environmental constraints intensified, is still a large gap in income distribution, income growth rate is too slow. These problems hamper the completion of a comprehensive well-off society, constructing the socialist harmonious society. The government should pay attention to the protection of resources under the premise of ensuring steady economic growth, optimize industrial structure, reduce poverty and reduce the income inequality, the use of resources to focus on policy, the adjustment of industrial structure, the income effect of welfare, poverty.
In this paper, the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the support of Chinese CGE-MS modeling technology and its application level were studied. It mainly contains two aspects: one is the calculation of the microscopic simulation of general equilibrium sequential method to establish a Keynes structure China CGE-MS model; two is the policy of economic growth, industrial structure the adjustment and poverty reduction effect as the research index, simulation analysis of the rising water, electricity and weather subsidies two kinds of public economic policy. So as to further improve, provide quantitative results worth learning optimization policy and provide reference for selection of policy transition Chinese. Firstly, based on the China 2007 IO table, with the statistical yearbook and other relevant data, the preparation of the 2007 Chinese macro SAM table, and on this basis, we refineit to get the original micro SAM, in addition Defects of the original SAM to carry out the necessary, and points out the improvement methods. The defect of non symmetry existing update method and the matrix elements of non negative constraints, based on the information theory and put forward the methods of the JSD class, and give the security number, extended error control, provides a set of matrix update in the empirical framework, and rigorous proof that the excellent properties of JSD method.
Secondly, this paper is divided into two steps to set up CGE-MS model for the Chinese. First, based on IFPRI standard model, set up a Keynes structure China CGE model and test the model validity; and then extended micro simulation model of the set change with the composite commodity prices the change in the poverty line, which makes the final CGE-MS model can basically complete the excellent completion of the simulation analysis of the policy. To construct the CGE-MS model Chinese to complete, and all the model code is implemented by GAMS software, from the qualitative structure, system of mathematical equations to program, provides an extensible framework complete, provides for the simulation application follow-up policy, but also provides a reference for similar research.
Third, after the establishment of the model, two kinds of public economic policies were simulated, including water price rising, electricity and gas subsidies, and some conclusions based on the simulation results were obtained.
Simulation analysis of the price increases that price increases have a negative impact on economic growth, the employment sector and macroeconomic variables such as output, and has led to a rise in the overall price level. And the affected residents, enterprises and government revenues have decreased to some extent, the incidence of poverty and poverty depth were slightly increase, but can significantly reduce the economic unit GDP water consumption, improve the utilization efficiency of water resources.
Simulation analysis of the abolition of electricity and natural gas subsidies, considering the cost of the external circumstances, the results show that the abolition of electricity and natural gas subsidies on the real GDP, import and export, had a negative impact on the employment and other macroeconomic variables as well as the mining sector output, industry, heavy industry and other electricity or natural gas large consumption of industrial output fell significantly affected by this, residents and business income decline, due to reduced government spending on subsidies to income decrease is relatively small, at the same time, the incidence of poverty and poverty depth increased, but it can significantly reduce the economic unit GDP electric power and natural gas consumption, improve resource utilization efficiency, at the same time the rationalization of industrial structure and the level enhancement, the industrial structure optimization and upgrading.
Finally, the two conclusions of CGE-MS modeling technology research and empirical simulation are summarized, the future development direction is pointed out, the limitations and shortcomings of current research are defined, and suggestions for improving CGE-MS class research in China are put forward.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F120;F224

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