海丝谋划、风险评估与监控监管

发布时间：2018-03-30 01:22

本文选题：海上丝绸之路　切入点：区域公共产品　出处：《社会科学研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：特朗普一系列对外经济政策乃至策略的重大调整,使得美国在奥巴马执政时期的诸多努力和筹划出现重要变数。而当前中国面临国内经济下行、全球贸易萎缩与国际经济振荡的结构性困局,海上丝绸之路沿线国家的地缘政治经济环境、风险治理能力、对华政策波动,以及世界大国、地区强国基于战略竞争和利益冲突而展开的政策博弈,导致海丝谋划的投入成本和预期收益不确定性进一步提升,区域公共产品成本分担与持续性激励问题突显,战略透支的可能性与风险性升高。建议调适海丝沿线国家预期,寻求战略支点国家采取非均衡布局,加强投入-产出比的动态评估,全面提升中国与海丝沿线国家营商环境水平,构筑风险监管监控体系,减轻大国战略竞争压力,建立有效的区域冲突协调机制。
[Abstract]:A series of major changes in Trump's foreign economic policy and even strategy have made many of the efforts and plans of the United States during the Obama administration an important variable. China is facing a downward trend in its domestic economy. The structural difficulties of the shrinking global trade and the international economic oscillation, the geopolitical and economic environment of the countries along the maritime Silk Road, the ability of risk management, the fluctuation of China policies, and the world powers, Based on the strategic competition and conflict of interest, the policy game of regional power leads to the uncertainty of input cost and expected income, and the problem of cost sharing and continuous incentive of regional public goods is highlighted. The possibility and risk of strategic overdraft are increased. It is suggested to adjust the expectations of the countries along the sea wire, to seek the non-balanced layout of the strategic fulcrum countries, and to strengthen the dynamic assessment of the input-output ratio. We should improve the level of business environment between China and the countries along the sea line, build a risk supervision and control system, reduce the pressure of strategic competition of big countries, and establish an effective regional conflict coordination mechanism.
【作者单位】：广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院21世纪海上丝绸之路协同创新中心;复旦大学经济学院博士后流动站;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“中国-东盟自由贸易区的和平效应分析”(14BGJ047);国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’战略与中国参与全球经济治理问题”(152DA018)
【分类号】：F125

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