提升农村消费市场对经济增长贡献率的策略研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 03:01

本文选题：农村消费　切入点：经济增长　出处：《西南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国经济随着改革开放三十多年来,已取得了非常显著的成绩。其中,年平均经济增长率接近10%,国内生产总值也是逐年增加,目前已超过日本,跃居全球第二。国内人民生活水平逐步得到明显改,,综合国力进一步加强。消费作为推动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一,其巨大贡献功不可没,而中央政府也把扩大内需作为缓解国际金融危机的重要途径。然而与此同时,目前国内消费的结构性失衡,消费需求尤其是农村居民缺乏动力消费,限制了我国经济的进一步增长。我国庞大的农村人口,至今仍有接近50%的人口长期生活在农村,因此农村消费市场的潜力巨大。结合我国未来农村经济的发展,农村消费将是我国未来的经济增长中非常给力的动力源泉。因此,提高农民收入,改善消费环境,合理引导农村消费对于扩大内需、促进经济增长意义重大。本文从消费的理论出发,分析农村消费对经济增长的影响,同时对制约农村消费市场对经济增长贡献率的一些关键因素进行了实证分析,提出制约我国农村消费市场对经济增长贡献率的根本原因,从而为制定相对应的一些政策提供具有参考价值的意见与建议。本文主要分为三个部分：第一部分从消费的理论出发,首先介绍了有关农村消费市场的概念,并在此基础上分析农村消费市场对经济增长贡献率所带来的影响和作用。第二部分,在定量分析方面结合了经济学和统计学的知识,运用Eviews软件进行计量分析,以1990-2013年的时间序列数据为数据资源,通过回归分析法和相关分析法估算了农村消费市场对经济的贡献率。通过模型的估算结果找出其中的异同之处,并对比城镇居民消费市场对经济的贡献率的水平,得出我国农村消费市场的贡献率远低于城镇消费市场。最后,针对农村消费市场对经济增长贡献率的不同做出总结,分析研究找到能进一步提高农村消费市场贡献率的政策与措施。
[Abstract]:With the reform and opening up of China's economy for more than 30 years, China has made very remarkable achievements. Among them, the annual average economic growth rate is close to 10 percent, and the gross domestic product (GDP) has also increased year by year, which has now surpassed that of Japan. As one of the "troika" to promote economic growth, consumption is one of the "troika" to promote economic growth. Meanwhile, the central government also regards expanding domestic demand as an important way to alleviate the international financial crisis. At the same time, however, at the same time, the structural imbalance of domestic consumption, consumer demand, especially rural residents' lack of motivation to consume, It limits the further growth of our economy. Nearly 50% of the population of our country still live in rural areas for a long time. Therefore, the potential of the rural consumer market is enormous. Combined with the development of rural economy in the future, Rural consumption will be a very powerful source of power for China's future economic growth. Therefore, raising farmers' income, improving the consumption environment, and reasonably guiding rural consumption to expand domestic demand, It is of great significance to promote economic growth. This paper, based on the theory of consumption, analyzes the impact of rural consumption on economic growth, and makes an empirical analysis of some key factors that restrict the contribution of rural consumption market to economic growth. The paper puts forward the basic reasons of restricting the contribution rate of rural consumption market to economic growth, thus providing some valuable suggestions for making corresponding policies. This paper is divided into three parts:. The first part introduces the concept of rural consumption market from the theory of consumption, and then analyzes the impact and function of rural consumption market on the contribution rate of economic growth. The second part, combining the knowledge of economics and statistics in quantitative analysis, uses Eviews software to carry on the econometric analysis, taking the time series data from 1990 to 2013 as the data resource. The contribution rate of rural consumer market to economy is estimated by regression analysis and correlation analysis. The similarities and differences are found out by the results of model estimation, and the level of contribution rate of urban consumer market to economy is compared. The contribution rate of rural consumption market is far lower than that of urban consumption market. Finally, according to the different contribution rate of rural consumption market to economic growth, the paper analyzes and studies the policies and measures that can further improve the contribution rate of rural consumption market.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.8;F124.1

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