我国服务贸易对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 06:30

本文选题：服务贸易　切入点：经济增长　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国建设的几十年间,经济取得了显著地发展,尤其是我国加入WTO之后,国内生产总值从2002年的14538.2亿美元,增长到了2012年的82622.3亿美元,10年之间增长了大约6倍。与此同时,我国的服务贸易也取得了长足的发展,服务贸易的进出口额从2002年的854亿美元增长到2012年的4706亿美元。经济的发展和增长作为热门的话题,一直受到各国学者的关注。服务贸易和货物贸易作为贸易的重要组成成分,对一国的经济增长起到了不可估量的作用,尤其是随着20世纪60年代,各发达国家开始把服务贸易作为国际竞争的中心,服务贸易开始变成了经济增长的新动力。但是,我国的服务贸易存在发展规模小、内部结构不合理、区域发展不均衡、开放程度和竞争力偏低等问题。然而,伴随着2007年由美国引发的波及世界各地的金融危机对各个国家的经济造成了沉重的打击,我国的经济同样受到了一定程度的打击。如何加快服务贸易的快速发展,更好地发挥服务贸易对我国经济增长的推动效应,从而增强服务贸易在国际上的竞争力、缩小与发达国家的差距,已经成为21世纪我们必须要面临和解决的问题。本文首先通过定性和定量研究,分析了我国服务贸易的发展现状和存在的问题,然后通过进一步分析服务贸易促进我国经济增长的途径,揭示了服务贸易对我国经济增长的影响方式和机制。最后,文章通过建立服务贸易总量和结构的计量模型,利用实证的研究方法,分析了服务贸易的进、出口以及运输、旅游、通信、建筑、保险、金融、计算机和信息、专有权利使用费和特许费、咨询、广告宣传、电影音像和其他商业服务十二个部门的进、出口对我国经济增长的不同影响,并且得出了结论：我国服务贸易的进、出口与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡稳定的关系,并且服务贸易的出口与经济增长存在着显著的正相关关系,同时服务贸易出口一直是我国经济增长的格兰杰原因；服务贸易中不同部门的进、出口都对我国经济增长有正相关效应,尤其是一些知识密集型和技术密集型的部门更是如此。综合考虑不同部门进、出口总体对经济增长的影响,得到了排在前四名的部门,它们分别是旅游、其他商业服务、通信、运输。因此,我国应该积极发展服务贸易,重视服务贸易的出口,采取必要的措施,扶持和保护新兴服务贸易部门的发展,发挥我国服务贸易的优势,缩小与世界各国的差距。
[Abstract]:During the decades of construction, China's economy has made remarkable development, especially after China's entry into WTO, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 1.45382 trillion US dollars in 2002 to 8.26223 trillion US dollars in 2012, an increase of about six times in 10 years.At the same time, China's trade in services has made great progress. The import and export of service trade has increased from 85.4 billion dollars in 2002 to 470.6 billion dollars in 2012.Economic development and growth as a hot topic, has been concerned by scholars all over the world.Trade in services and goods, as an important component of trade, has played an inestimable role in the economic growth of a country, especially with the beginning of the 1960s, the developed countries began to take trade in services as the center of international competition.Trade in services began to become a new engine of economic growth.However, there are some problems in China's service trade, such as small scale of development, unreasonable internal structure, unbalanced regional development, low degree of openness and low competitiveness.However, with the financial crisis caused by the United States in 2007, which affected the economies of various countries, the economy of our country has also been hit to a certain extent.How to speed up the rapid development of service trade and give full play to the impelling effect of service trade on China's economic growth, so as to enhance the competitiveness of service trade in the world and narrow the gap with developed countries.Has become the 21 st century we must face and solve the problem.In this paper, first of all, through qualitative and quantitative research, the author analyzes the current situation and existing problems of China's service trade, and then analyzes the ways of promoting China's economic growth through further analysis of service trade.Reveals the service trade to our country economic growth influence way and the mechanism.Finally, the paper analyzes the import and export of service trade, as well as transportation, tourism, communication, construction, insurance, finance, computer and information, by establishing the measurement model of the aggregate and structure of trade in services.Exclusive royalties and royalties, consulting, advertising, film, audio, video and other commercial services, the different effects of exports on China's economic growth, and the conclusion that China's trade in services is advancing,There is a long-term equilibrium and stability relationship between export and economic growth, and there is a significant positive correlation between export of trade in services and economic growth. Meanwhile, export of service trade has always been the Granger cause of economic growth in China.The import and export of different sectors of service trade have positive correlation effect on China's economic growth, especially in some knowledge-intensive and technology-intensive sectors.Taking into account the overall impact of imports and exports on economic growth, the top four sectors are tourism, other commercial services, communications and transportation.Therefore, China should actively develop service trade, attach importance to the export of service trade, take necessary measures to support and protect the development of emerging service trade sectors, give play to the advantages of China's service trade, and narrow the gap with the rest of the world.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F752.68

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