房价波动对居民消费的影响研究——基于消费总量与结构的双重视角

发布时间：2018-04-17 20:52

本文选题：房价波动 + 居民消费　；参考：《价格理论与实践》2017年04期

【摘要】：房价波动影响居民消费,本文通过面板模型对两者关系进行检验。基于房价影响居民消费总量的研究发现,当期房价上涨对居民消费影响并不显著,短期内房价上涨对居民消费呈现显著的"财富效应"。但长期来看,房价上涨的"挤出效应"逐步显现。同时,收入水平和房价波动对居民消费具有滞后性影响。基于房价影响居民消费结构的研究发现,房价上涨拉动了居民非住房消费,对居民必需性消费的影响不大,但会通过"财富效应"增加居民非必需性消费。分区域看,在东部和东北地区房价上涨对居民非住房消费的影响较小,但在西部地区房价上涨能够显著增加居民的非住房消费,中部地区则只有滞后性影响。
[Abstract]:The fluctuation of house price affects the consumption of residents. This paper tests the relationship between the two by panel model.Based on the study of the impact of house price on the total consumption of residents, it is found that the current rise of house price has no significant impact on the consumption of residents, and that the rise of house price in the short term has a significant "wealth effect" on the consumption of residents.But in the long run, the "crowding out effect" of rising house prices has gradually emerged.At the same time, income levels and house price fluctuations have a lag impact on consumption.Based on the study of the influence of house price on the consumption structure of residents, it is found that the rise of house price leads to the non-housing consumption of residents, but it has little effect on the residents' essential consumption, but it will increase the non-essential consumption of residents through the "wealth effect".In the east and northeast of China, the rise of house price has little effect on the non-housing consumption, but it can significantly increase the non-housing consumption in the western region, but only lag in the central region.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“推进农业转移人口市民化:路径选择、财力保障与地方政府激励研究”(项目编号14ZDA032)
【分类号】：F126.1;F299.23

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