全球气候变化对长三角河口海岸地区社会经济影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 14:12

  本文选题：全球气候变化 + 城市社会经济影响　； 参考：《华东师范大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代以来,以气候变暖为标志的全球气候变化逐渐引起世界各国政府、国际组织和科学工作者的高度重视和广泛关注,业已成为当代人类社会所面临的重大“全球问题”之一。联合国授权的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)就气候变化问题分别在1990、1995、2001、2007、2012年发布了五次评估报告,指出全球气候变化的产生与人类活动的持续影响息息相关,并将引发一系列的全球经济、社会、生态和政治问题,其对人类社会的影响范围和影响深度将远超全球环境气候问题本身。国内外的众多学者也从不同的学科领域和视角对全球气候变化及其脆弱性问题开展了大量的研究,研究重点也已从全球自然生态系统逐渐开始转向全球社会-经济-生态复合系统,同时逐渐开始聚焦于全球气候变化对人类社会经济的影响机理、影响途径及其相应的减缓及防范对策研究。 全球气候变化对人类社会经济的影响,最集中地体现在沿海城市和沿海地区。因为海岸带是世界有海岸国家和地区人口、产业、城市、财富高度集聚的黄金地带,同时亦是海、陆两大自然地理单元的结合部,最易受到来自全球气候变暖所造成或加剧的海平面上升、风暴潮、盐水入侵、海岸侵蚀、湿地生态退化等海洋灾害和沿海生态事件的影响。特别是在河口海岸地区,由于地处陆、河、海三者的交汇处,更是具有人类强势活动与自然-人工复合生态系统复杂、敏感、脆弱的双重特征和叠加因素,一旦受到全球气候变化的影响,极易产生一系列衍生效应和放大效应,从而造成严重的人员伤亡和社会经济损失,并对其他地区产生明显的影响和波及效应。因此,必须把全球气候变化问题的研究与防范重点放在沿海地区尤其是河口海岸地区。 长江三角洲地区地处我国海岸带的中部,扼居我国第一大河、世界第三大河长江的入海口门,构成了典型的河口城市及河口海岸地区。这里既是我国经济最发达的精粹之地和最大的经济中心城市上海之所在,同时也是人地关系最为复杂、生态系统最为脆弱、对全球气候变化的影响最为敏感和社会经济的波及效应、放大效应最为突出的城市化地区。因此,深入开展全球气候变化对长三角沿海地区的社会经济影响的研究,不仅对上海及长三角城市群的防灾减灾、转型发展及可持续发展有着十分重要的理论和实践意义,对全国及全球其他沿海城市化区域积极应对全球气候变化的研究和实践也具有积极的借鉴价值。 基于上述研究背景,并且作为国家社会科学基金一般项目“全球气候变化对长三角沿海地区的影响研究”(项目编号13BJL087)的重要研究成果,本论文将秉承理论与实际紧密结合、多学科交叉融合的研究思路,在全面概括梳理地理学、经济学、灾害学、社会学等相关理论以及国内外相关研究成果的基础上,以长三角河口海岸地区8市为实证分析研究对象,采用可变模糊识别模型、P-S-R(压力-状态-响应力)模型和基于GIS系统平台之上的未来情景模拟分析等多种研究方法和分析手段,深入开展全球气候变化对河口海岸城市化地区社会经济的影响及其评价研究,旨在从理论上定性辨识全球气候变化与人类社会经济发展之间的耦合互动关系以及全球气候变化影响人类社会经济发展的机理和途径,在实证上定量评价与测度长三角河口海岸地区复合生态系统的自身协调程度、面对全球气候变化影响的脆弱性程度,以及该地区应对全球气候变化的未来空间情景模拟状况,进而为政府加强防范应对措施和学界进一步深入研究提供决策参考依据和实证分析案例。本文共分为七章： 第一章是绪论。本章阐述了本文的研究背景、意义、内容、框架、方法、主要研究思路及技术路线等,并对重要的相关概念进行了界定。 第二章是理论基础、文献综述及评价方法。本章通过系统阐述与全球气候变化影响密切相关的地理学、经济学、灾害学、社会学等相关理论和全面梳理、评述国内外学界的相关研究文献,从理论上探索气候变化与人类社会经济的耦合互动关系,分析气候变化影响城市复合生态系统的机理与途径,并在总结和借鉴已有的气候影响脆弱性评估模型的基础上,构建了长三角河口海岸地区气候变化脆弱性综合评价模型,为全文奠定了理论和方法论的基础。 第三章是长三角河口海岸地区经济社会环境现状与协调度评述。本章基于对该地区经济、社会、生态环境三大系统发展现状的全面分析,构建了该地区经济、社会与环境协调度的评价指标体系,并通过可变模糊识别方法对该地区及其内部8市在气候变化影响背景下的协调性状况开展了系统的定量评估及空间比较分析。 第四章是全球气候变化对上海及长三角河口海岸地区复合生态系统的影响评价。本章通过建立气候变化脆弱性综合评价指标体系,从危险度、敏感度和适应度等三个分级指标对2001-2012年间上海复合生态系统的气候变化脆弱度进行了时序分析和定量测度,对该地区8市的气候变化脆弱度开展了综合比较评估。 第五章是全球气候变化对上海城市复合生态系统影响的空间评价。本章以上海作为典型的城市化地区,通过对上海城市复合生态系统气候变化影响的风险因子筛选,基于海平面上升、地面沉降和风暴潮等三种灾害情景的模拟评估方法,对未来20年(2030年)至40年(2050年)上海城市复合生态系统在全球气候变化影响下的空间暴露性和脆弱性进行了全面的评估分析。 第六章是长三角河口海岸地区应对全球气候变化的措施与对策。本章通过上述实证分析,阐述了该地区应对气候变化的指导思想和基本原则,确定了应对的重点领域,并提出了可供政府决策参考的具体配套措施。 第七章是结论与研究展望。本章对全文的理论探索与实证研究进行了系统总结,并提出了后续研究的展望。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, global climate change, marked by climate warming, has gradually attracted the attention and attention of governments of all countries, international organizations and scientists, and has become one of the major "global problems" faced by the contemporary human society. The United Nations authorized Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) is angry. The issue of climate change has been published five times in 19901995200120072012, pointing out that the emergence of global climate change is closely related to the continuous impact of human activities, and will lead to a series of global economic, social, ecological and political issues. The scope and depth of its impact on human society will be far beyond the global environmental climate. Many scholars at home and abroad have also carried out a great deal of research on global climate change and its vulnerability from different disciplines and perspectives. The focus has gradually shifted from the global natural ecosystem to the global socio economy ecological complex system, and gradually began to focus on the global climate change for human society. The influence mechanism of the economy, the way of its influence and the corresponding mitigation and countermeasures are studied.
The influence of global climate change on the human society and economy is most concentrated in coastal cities and coastal areas. Because the coastal zone is a gold zone with a high concentration of population, industry, city and wealth in the world with coastal countries and regions, it is also the combination of the marine and land two nature Geographic monographs, which is most easily created by global warming. The effects of sea level rise, storm surge, brine invasion, coastal erosion, ecological degradation of wetlands and other marine disasters and coastal ecological events, especially in the estuarine and coastal areas, which are located at the intersection of the three people of land, river and sea, are more complex, sensitive and vulnerable to the complex, sensitive and fragile ecosystem of human beings and natural artificial complex ecosystems. Characteristics and superposition factors, once affected by global climate change, are highly susceptible to a series of derivatives and amplification effects, resulting in serious casualties and social and economic losses, and a significant impact and effect on other areas. Therefore, the research and prevention of global climate change must be focused on the coastal areas. The area is especially the estuarine and coastal area.
The Yangtze River Delta is located in the middle of the coastal zone of China, and occupies the first river in our country. The entrance of the third largest river in the world is the typical estuarine city and estuarine coastal area. This is not only the most developed and essential place of China's economy and the largest economic center of Shanghai, but also the most complex relationship between human and land. The ecological system is most vulnerable, the most sensitive to global climate change and the influence of socioeconomic, and the most prominent urbanization area. Therefore, the study of the social and economic impact of global climate change on the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta is not only for the disaster prevention and reduction, the transformation and development of Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta city group. And sustainable development has a very important theoretical and practical significance. It also has a positive reference value for the research and practice of the whole country and other coastal cities in the world to actively deal with the global climate change.
Based on the above research background, and as an important research result of the general project of the National Social Science Fund "the impact of global climate change on the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta" (project number 13BJL087), this paper will carry out a comprehensive summary of geography, through a comprehensive summary of the research ideas of the combination of theory and practice and interdisciplinary integration of multidisciplinary. On the basis of the related theories of economics, disaster science and sociology, as well as the relevant research results at home and abroad, 8 cities in the Yangtze River Delta estuary and coastal areas are taken as the empirical research. The variable fuzzy recognition model, the P-S-R (pressure state response force) model and the future scenario simulation analysis based on the GIS system platform are used. The impact of global climate change on the socio-economic development of the estuarine and coastal urbanization area and its evaluation are analyzed in order to identify the coupling interaction relationship between global climate change and human social and economic development in theory and the mechanism and ways of global climate change affecting human social and economic development. On the basis of quantitative evaluation and measurement of the coordination degree of the complex ecosystem in the coastal area of the Yangtze River Delta, the vulnerability of the impact of global climate change, and the future space scenario simulation of the region's response to global climate change, thus providing the government to strengthen the prevention and response measures and the further in-depth study of the academic community to provide decision-making reference. This paper is divided into seven chapters: a case study and a case study.
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter describes the research background, significance, content, framework, methods, main research ideas and technical routes, and defines important related concepts.
The second chapter is the theoretical basis, literature review and evaluation methods. This chapter expounds the relevant theories and comprehensive combing of geography, economics, disaster science and sociology, which is closely related to the influence of global climate change, and reviews relevant research literature at home and abroad, and explores the coupling interaction between climate change and human society and economy in theory. On the basis of summarizing and drawing on the existing model of climate impact vulnerability assessment, a comprehensive evaluation model of climate change vulnerability in the coastal area of the Yangtze River Delta is built on the basis of summarizing and drawing on the existing model of climate impact vulnerability assessment, which lays the foundation for the full text of the theory and methodology.
The third chapter is a review of the status and coordination degree of economic and social environment in the estuary and coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the three systems of economic, social and ecological environment in the region, this chapter constructs the evaluation index system of the economic, social and environmental coordination of the region. The coordination of 8 cities under the background of climate change has been quantitatively evaluated and compared.
The fourth chapter is the assessment of the impact of global climate change on the composite ecosystem in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta estuary and coastal areas. Through the establishment of a comprehensive evaluation index system for climate change vulnerability, the vulnerability of the Shanghai complex ecosystem in the period of 2001-2012 years is carried out from three levels of risk, sensitivity and adaptation. Time series analysis and quantitative measurement were used to conduct a comprehensive comparative assessment of the vulnerability of the 8 cities in the region.
The fifth chapter is the spatial evaluation of the impact of global climate change on the urban complex ecosystem in Shanghai. This chapter takes Shanghai as a typical urbanized area, through the screening of the risk factors affecting the climate change of the urban composite ecosystem in Shanghai, and the simulation evaluation method based on the sea level rise, the ground subsidence and the storm tide, and so on. The spatial exposure and vulnerability of Shanghai urban complex ecosystem under the influence of global climate change in the next 20 years (2030) to 40 years (2050) were evaluated and analyzed.
The sixth chapter is the measures and Countermeasures to deal with the global climate change in the estuary and coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta. Through the above empirical analysis, this chapter expounds the guiding ideology and basic principles of the region's response to climate change, determines the key areas to deal with, and puts forward specific supporting measures for the government's decision to make a reference.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion and research prospect. This chapter summarizes the theoretical exploration and empirical research in detail and puts forward the prospects for further research.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;P467
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本文编号：1806372