山东省产业结构变迁对经济增长影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-30 20:08

本文选题：产业结构变迁 + 产业结构合理化　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,作为经济大省之一的山东,凭借自身沿海及资源优势,经济得到了快速增长。但是,多年来以牺牲环境为代价的粗放型发展模式,使山东省的结构性矛盾日益突出。为获得经济的可持续发展,优化山东省的产业结构势在必行。因此,客观认识山东省的产业结构变迁特点及其对经济增长的影响,对因地制宜地制定、实施相关政策具有重要意义。本文首先从理论研究和经验性分析两个角度梳理学者的研究,然后,借鉴包含传统产业部门和现代产业部门的两部门经济增长模型,结合经济增长核算方程,从理论上推导出产业结构合理化与高级化对总产出增长率的促进作用。第三,从“量”的角度上,总结分析了山东省近30多年来的经济发展状况和产业结构变迁特征,选取的主要指标有实际GDP、GDP增长率、三次产业的产值占比及就业人数占比、劳动生产率。最后,为验证理论分析结果,本文利用山东省自改革开放以来的经济发展数据,构建VAR模型,从脉冲响应和方差分解两个方面,分析山东省的产业结构合理化与高级化对总产出的影响。本文经过理论和经验性分析,得出以下研究结论:山东省产业结构的合理化和高级化过程促进了总产出水平的提高;虽然山东省的产业结构布局仍然存在不合理的地方、产业结构的高级化水平有待进一步提高,但合理地配置资源对经济增长带来的促进作用仍然大于产业结构高级化带来的影响。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Shandong, as one of the major economic provinces, has gained rapid economic growth by virtue of its coastal and resource advantages. However, the extensive development model at the expense of environment for many years has made the structural contradictions of Shandong Province more and more prominent. In order to obtain the sustainable development of economy, it is imperative to optimize the industrial structure of Shandong Province. Therefore, an objective understanding of the characteristics of industrial structure change and its impact on economic growth in Shandong Province is of great significance to the formulation and implementation of relevant policies according to local conditions. This paper firstly combs the scholars' research from two angles of theoretical research and empirical analysis, and then draws lessons from the two-sector economic growth model including the traditional industrial sector and the modern industrial sector, and combines the accounting equation of economic growth. The paper theoretically deduces the promoting effect of the rationalization and advanced industrial structure on the total output growth rate. Thirdly, from the angle of "quantity", this paper summarizes and analyzes the economic development and the characteristics of industrial structure change in Shandong Province in the past 30 years. The main indicators selected are the actual GDP growth rate, the proportion of output value of three industries and the proportion of employed people. Productivity. Finally, in order to verify the theoretical analysis results, using the economic development data of Shandong Province since the reform and opening up, this paper constructs the VAR model, from the two aspects of impulse response and variance decomposition. This paper analyzes the effect of rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure on total output in Shandong Province. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: the rationalization and advanced process of industrial structure in Shandong Province has promoted the improvement of total output level, although there are still some unreasonable places in the industrial structure layout of Shandong Province. The advanced level of industrial structure needs to be further improved, but the rational allocation of resources still has a greater impact on economic growth than on the higher level of industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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