基于系统动力学的中国产业结构调整及碳排放模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 20:17

本文选题：产业结构 + 碳排放　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文将投入产出表和假设抽取法相结合，分析我国自2002年至2010年产业间的二氧化碳转移问题，引入需求排放、产出排放等概念进行进一步的分析，最后构建一个系统动力学模型，分析不同情景下我国的经济增长和碳排放量等指标的趋势，探讨我国的产业结构调整方向。本文一共分为五章：第一章主要介绍产业结构理论的背景，产业结构理论模型的国内外研究现状等；第二章通过分析我国的碳排放现状，对比全球部分发达国家和发展中国家的碳排放现状，分析发达国家和发展中国家在产业结构和碳排放方面的差异；第三章结合投入产出法和假设抽取法，将我国42个部门合并为21个部门后再合并成八大产业群，从二氧化碳需求排放量、产出排放量等指标分别分析，发现产业间是存在碳转移的，而能源行业作为最大的二氧化碳“输出者”，其本身的内部排放占了需求排放的90%，说明能源行业基本上都是自给自足、以内部排放为主的，能源行业在较大程度上是为其他产业群承担了部分的二氧化碳排放量；第四章在上一章的基础上构建了一个包含经济子系统、环境子系统、人口子系统的模型，假定三种不同的情景方案，，预测到2030年为止GDP、碳排放总量等指标的不同变化，发现仅对服务业、高新技术行业等“低碳行业”投入大量的资金，是难以达到产业结构调整同时降低碳排放这一目标的，而综合考虑能源行业等“高碳行业”与“低碳行业”间存在的二氧化碳转移现象，可以更好地实现产业结构升级；第五章是总结与展望，在总结前四章的结论后，提出了后续的研究可进行的方向。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the input-output table and the hypothesis extraction method are combined to analyze the problem of carbon dioxide transfer between industries from 2002 to 2010, and the concepts of demand emission and output emission are introduced for further analysis. Finally, a system dynamics model is constructed to analyze the trends of China's economic growth and carbon emissions under different scenarios, and to explore the direction of industrial structure adjustment in China. This paper is divided into five chapters: the first chapter mainly introduces the background of industrial structure theory, the domestic and foreign research status of industrial structure theory model, the second chapter analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in China. By comparing the current situation of carbon emissions between some developed and developing countries, the paper analyzes the differences in industrial structure and carbon emissions between developed and developing countries. Chapter three combines the input-output method and hypothetical extraction method. After merging 42 departments in China into 21 departments and then merging them into eight industrial clusters, it is found that carbon transfer exists between industries through analysis of carbon dioxide demand emissions, output emissions and other indicators. As the largest "exporter" of carbon dioxide, the energy industry accounts for 90 percent of the required emissions, indicating that the energy industry is basically self-sufficient and mainly self-contained. The energy industry is responsible for some of the carbon dioxide emissions for other industrial groups. Chapter four builds a model of economic subsystem, environmental subsystem and population subsystem based on the previous chapter. Assuming that three different scenarios predict different changes in GDPand total carbon emissions by 2030, it turns out that only "low-carbon industries" such as services and high-tech industries have invested a lot of money. It is difficult to achieve the goal of adjusting industrial structure and reducing carbon emissions. Considering the phenomenon of carbon dioxide transfer between "high carbon industry" and "low carbon industry", such as energy industry, the upgrading of industrial structure can be better realized. Chapter five is a summary and prospect. After summarizing the conclusions of the first four chapters, the author puts forward the possible directions for further research.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;X22

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